Week 4 2017 (Sept 28th -Oct 2nd) - Discussion and Information

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Re: Week 4 2017 (Sept 28th -Oct 2nd) - Discussion and Information

Postby Gman84 » Thu Sep 28, 2017 7:13 pm

Looking at tonights game for a possible anytime TD scorer and TouchdownTips touched on Geronimo Allison for the Packers who has had a strong start the season. He's a best priced 11/2 with Unibet although I do wonder if Randall Cobb's expected return tonight will impact his snaps.

As something at a bit more of a price, Aaron Rodgers is always capable of getting into the end zone on a broken play and he had 4 rush TD's last year. He's 8/1, also with Unibet.

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Re: Week 4 2017 (Sept 28th -Oct 2nd) - Discussion and Information

Postby Jim Brown » Thu Sep 28, 2017 7:28 pm

Tonight's game has a real trappy feel to it for me. In fact I was initially looking to see if the Bears could be an underdog pick given the cracks that have appeared in the Packers game this season. They've had some recent success in Wisconsin. As shown last week against the Steelers, the Bears have a habit of being jinxy for certain teams, and that might be the stumbling block for Green Bay tonight. However, I'm also keen on any team with a second home game in succession. I feel that's an added advantage (just like repeat road games are a disadvantage), so I think I'll leave this alone. I went for the Packers in the Experts blog, but the Bears at the same odds for when they beat the Steelers at home last week look big and if anyone has half a fancy for them I would not put you off at all.
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Re: Week 4 2017 (Sept 28th -Oct 2nd) - Discussion and Information

Postby TouchdownTips » Thu Sep 28, 2017 7:46 pm

I looked at the Aaron Rodgers odds ok oddschecker. Turns out the big price ones were Richards bloody Rodgers.

I am not after Geronimo now with Cobb expected back. He'll go back to being wr4 so probably won't see the field unless there's injuries. I've had a little on Shaheen at 10s and a little on Jamaal Williams at 7s as long shots.

I've also gone against the one that OLBG posted on twitter and gone for o44 pts.

I agree with it feeling like a potential trap game, but also with the second home game thing. I think the Packers will be fine

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Re: Week 4 2017 (Sept 28th -Oct 2nd) - Discussion and Information

Postby Jim Brown » Thu Sep 28, 2017 9:27 pm

The NFL Underdog Blog is up for week four. Three picks plus some 'honourable mentions' for which I'm sorely disappointed in the odds on offer, otherwise I might have had a brace of picks. One will be shock, trust me, and I reckon no-one will agree with me lol. But that's what happens when you walk out on the limb of a tree!

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Re: Week 4 2017 (Sept 28th -Oct 2nd) - Discussion and Information

Postby TouchdownTips » Fri Sep 29, 2017 7:08 am

I picked the wrong backup RB :(

Even looked at Aaron Jones as well, think it was 14s or so

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Re: Week 4 2017 (Sept 28th -Oct 2nd) - Discussion and Information

Postby Gman84 » Fri Sep 29, 2017 8:24 am

At least you got your over in. Bears lost it in the first quarter falling behind by 14 points quickly and never recovered.

Packers now get a mini bye and they know one of the Lions or Vikings will lose this week (back the tie now lol).

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Re: Week 4 2017 (Sept 28th -Oct 2nd) - Discussion and Information

Postby Gman84 » Fri Sep 29, 2017 1:54 pm

Week 4 comes under the microscope of the OLBG NFL Experts:

Click here to see out selections and acca's.

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Re: Week 4 2017 (Sept 28th -Oct 2nd) - Discussion and Information

Postby Gman84 » Fri Sep 29, 2017 2:48 pm

Ok, time to go through some Anytime TD scorer possibles:

Andre Holmes - WR - Bills: Two TD's in past three weeks but only 5 receptions from those three games (from 7 targets). At 6'4" they clearly see him as a red zone, jump ball type target. He was 9/2 last week with bet365 and scored (he was in one of my Lucky 15's) but the samefirm offer 5/1 this week in a game on the road where the Bills might struggle to be competitive. Scored both his TD's at home too.

Ed Dickson - TE - Panthers: Possible he may have caught some peoples attention last week replacing the injured Greg Olsen but he only had one reception. Still, he should be more involved with Olsen still out and the Pats have struggled to hold teams from scoring this season so far. He's as short as 11/4 with SkyBet and Ladbrokes but the 4/1 from bet365 is enough to interest me.

Joe Mixon - RB - Bengals: Doubled his workload last week in terms of carries and I think going forward he'll be getting the majority of the workload. He's yet to score but the Browns look a good opportunity to break his duck and at 9/4 with bet365 again I'm on board and I xpect that price to shorten significantly if word gets out.

Gerald Everett - TE - Rams: He was active in Week 3 but limited with a thigh injury. He's off the injury report now and has had a few extra days rest. He's shown a flash of being able to deliver a big play and could be an effective red zone target. 11/2 with SkyBet.

Brandon Oliver - RB - Chargers: This is one to keep an eye on with the health of staring RB Melvin Gordon. He missed practice on Weds but did have a limited practice yesterday so my assumption is he'll play. However, if he's a late scratch or is going to be limited in his workload then Oliver is well worth considering. A few firms have an early price of 3/1, I was hoping to try and snatch a bit bigger but a price/player to watch.

I'll be looking for some more later but right now, Mixon would be my NAP.

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Re: Week 4 2017 (Sept 28th -Oct 2nd) - Discussion and Information

Postby TouchdownTips » Fri Sep 29, 2017 5:40 pm

Damnit Chris, me and you are on the same wavelength too much, which I guess should be a good thing... I also considered Andre Holmes, but took the 9/4 on Charles Clay instead seeing as he get 25% of the Bills targets in the passing game and was the target for Holmes TD last week which magically ended up in his hands after deflecting off the big lad. Branden Oliver was considered too, but a best of 3/1 at the moment isn't good enough for me to take a shot on him.

Mixon is my good thing for the weekend as well, 9/4 is too high for him. And quite a bit above other bookies.

Alex Collins for the Ravens vs the Steelers, you can get him at 13/2, he was their best runner last week after looking like he would was the week before that as well. It will be a tough match, and I don't know whether to believe what happened in London (I'm not sure on Jim Browns opinion on whether that game matters or not?)

I also have an 8/1 shot for the Jets that I'll be saving until I post my stuff I'm afraid. Which in fairness I may as well do tonight and maybe put out some props on Sunday if I get time. We'll seeing as that price has been obliterated. It was ASJ. Austin Sefarian-Jenkins

A couple who aren't massive prices, but are overpriced in my eyes, Stefon Diggs 2/1, Christian McCaffery 5/2

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Re: Week 4 2017 (Sept 28th -Oct 2nd) - Discussion and Information

Postby Gman84 » Fri Sep 29, 2017 6:55 pm

Looking at the Chiefs - Redskins game Veronon Davis produced last week but he's shorter this week at 4's with William Hill. Again it depends on if Jordan Reed plays which I suspect he will this time.

I like Kirk Cousins at 8's, they do run some designed read option stuff which he can run on and he's scored a few rushing TD's since being the starter.

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Re: Week 4 2017 (Sept 28th -Oct 2nd) - Discussion and Information

Postby toadie21 » Fri Sep 29, 2017 8:39 pm

Toadies 5 against the spread
Sorry but this is going to be a bit brief, I'v got a diy job on the go that needs to be done before the Saints Dolphins game.
2-3 last week making it 8-7 so far.
Steelers -3, Jets +3, Falcons -8, Eagles +2.5 & Broncos -3
BOL gang

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Re: Week 4 2017 (Sept 28th -Oct 2nd) - Discussion and Information

Postby Gman84 » Sat Sep 30, 2017 10:26 am

My personal Acca this week, also vs the spread:

Titans -2
Giants +3
Eagles +2
Lions +2
Colts +13

I've picked agains the Colts in the Experts Blog but just don't see there being 13 points between the teams unless the Seahawks offense suddenly explodes or their defense is at it's absolute best.

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