Week 4 2017 (Sept 28th -Oct 2nd) - Discussion and Information

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Week 4 2017 (Sept 28th -Oct 2nd) - Discussion and Information

Postby Gman84 » Tue Sep 26, 2017 8:11 am

September is nearly done and it feels like the seaosn is flying by already! Week 3 was crazy...some very unusual results and anyone posting a positive pick percentage has done well. What will Week 4 bring?

Thursday, Sept. 28
Chicago at Green Bay, 8:25pm, CBS/NFLN/Amazon

Sunday, Oct. 1
New Orleans vs. Miami (at London), 9:30am, FOX
Buffalo at Atlanta, 1pm, CBS
Pittsburgh at Baltimore, 1pm, CBS
Cincinnati at Cleveland, 1pm, CBS
LA Rams at Dallas, 1pm, FOX
Tennessee at Houston, 1pm, CBS
Detroit at Minnesota, 1pm, FOX
Carolina at New England, 1pm, FOX
Jacksonville at NY Jets, 1pm, CBS
San Francisco at Arizona, 4:05pm, FOX
Philadelphia at LA Chargers, 4:05pm, FOX
NY Giants at Tampa Bay, 4:05pm, FOX
Oakland at Denver, 4:25pm, CBS
Indianapolis at Seattle, 8:30pm, NBC

Monday, Oct. 2
Washington at Kansas City, 8:30pm, ESPN

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NFL Week 4

Postby arniehi » Tue Sep 26, 2017 2:10 pm

So it's Week 4. I got a bit drunk and decided to buy a couple of tickets to the Saints game - is anyone here going? Would be cool to grab a beer at the tailgate before.

Onto the games though, and I wasn't impressed with the Packers against the Bengals. Sure, they came back late, but it was a slow performance. What is a big factor, however, is that they're playing for their second week at home and it's a short week. The Bears were impressive against the Steelers and I got that game horribly wrong, but an early 7.5 point handicap seems like it would have been 10+ if the Packers had put the Bengals to bed as many thought they would. I'm rather confident that the Packers will cover - comfortably - as while the Bears have been solid at home, they lost their only road fixture convincingly against the Bucs.

TNF Pick
Green Bay Packers -7.5 @ 2.05

Mod Edit - have merged with Week 4 Discussion thread.

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Re: Week 4 2017 (Sept 28th -Oct 2nd) - Discussion and Information

Postby Gman84 » Tue Sep 26, 2017 2:51 pm

I went last year to the Redskins @ Bengals and it's been my only trip down so far (I did go to three American Bowls at the old Wembley back in the late 80's/early 90's).

I'm glad they bring regular season games over there anbd I loved the experience last year but I have no desire to watch teams I'm neutral about given the money the whole thing costs if you don't live near London like I do. Hotels, transport, tickets, spending money - it soon adds up. I don't regret what i spent last year, I paid for top end tickets and the view was superb and the experience excellent but it's not something I can afford to do 2 or 3 times a year.

If anyone is going please do say and share your experience and I hope you have a grand time.

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Re: Week 4 2017 (Sept 28th -Oct 2nd) - Discussion and Information

Postby arniehi » Tue Sep 26, 2017 3:01 pm

I'm actually not a big fan of the Wembley days. It'll be the third one I'm going to (after saying never again a couple of years ago) and the main reason is my love for the Saints and my friend being a Fins fan. The atmosphere has always seemed forced, and the games are generally nothing short of average (understandable, given travel, lack of training, unfamiliar atmosphere, etc.). I'm hoping the Saints can take some heart from a great win on Sunday against a fairly decent Panthers team, but I think a lot of last week was an anomaly. Understand re: cost - I bought the tickets last minute via Stubhub which was a bit of a joke in terms of price, but I thought I'd be away so couldn't commit when they came on sale.

I haven't had much time to look at lines and totals yet, but off the cuff my picks this week will be (before actually delving in further);

Thursday, Sept. 28
Chicago at Green Bay, 8:25pm, CBS/NFLN/Amazon

Sunday, Oct. 1
New Orleans vs. Miami (at London), 9:30am, FOX
Buffalo at Atlanta, 1pm, CBS
Pittsburgh at Baltimore, 1pm, CBS
Cincinnati at Cleveland, 1pm, CBS
LA Rams at Dallas, 1pm, FOX
Tennessee at Houston, 1pm, CBS
Detroit at Minnesota, 1pm, FOX
Carolina at New England, 1pm, FOX
Jacksonville at NY Jets, 1pm, CBS
San Francisco at Arizona, 4:05pm, FOX
Philadelphia at LA Chargers, 4:05pm, FOX
NY Giants at Tampa Bay, 4:05pm, FOX
Oakland at Denver, 4:25pm, CBS
Indianapolis at Seattle, 8:30pm, NBC

Monday, Oct. 2
Washington at Kansas City, 8:30pm, ESPN

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Re: Week 4 2017 (Sept 28th -Oct 2nd) - Discussion and Information

Postby undertherobe » Tue Sep 26, 2017 4:22 pm

I managed to convince the wife to go the Pats-Bucs game as part of our honeymoon back when the tailgate was a separate ticketed event. Had a great time, got there early, drank lots, ate lots, talked NFL lots with all kinds of fans from 30 year vets to newbies.

But the sheer expense of it as well as the travel and time off work means I'll only go when the Jets are over now. Which we did a couple of years ago. Then, we did Liverpool-London in a day and rather than savour the whole experience it was just like going down to London to watch Everton play a Premier League game. I didn't care about what stuff they had outside for the fans or the entertainment, it was all about the Jets winning

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Re: Week 4 2017 (Sept 28th -Oct 2nd) - Discussion and Information

Postby DannyCraig » Tue Sep 26, 2017 5:07 pm

Maybe I'm in the minority but I go to every London game. I love the sport, and am just happy to have the opportunity to watch it live on my doorstep. I guess living in London makes you less price sensitive as even going out for dinner costs more than a single ticket does but I understand if you've got a family to pay for too that it might quickly add up.

Dolphins were terrible this weekend, so I can't see past a Saints win personally. Will be looking to take on the points line if they come in too low - the 39.5 was far too low for jags/ravens based on previous London scorelines - I anticipate they'll go 42.5 or thereabouts which seems gettable.

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Re: Week 4 2017 (Sept 28th -Oct 2nd) - Discussion and Information

Postby Gman84 » Tue Sep 26, 2017 8:24 pm

Maybe I'm in the minority but I go to every London game. I love the sport, and am just happy to have the opportunity to watch it live on my doorstep. I guess living in London makes you less price sensitive as even going out for dinner costs more than a single ticket does but I understand if you've got a family to pay for too that it might quickly add up.

Dolphins were terrible this weekend, so I can't see past a Saints win personally. Will be looking to take on the points line if they come in too low - the 39.5 was far too low for jags/ravens based on previous London scorelines - I anticipate they'll go 42.5 or thereabouts which seems gettable.

49.5 is the early line!!! I'd be well on the under despite the high scoring nature of a lot of London games.

If I lived in London I would probably attend more regularly but for what i shelled out last year I could have had a weeks holiday somewhere. I'm not complaining as I did it with good tickets and a few days away so I wasn't rushed and I loved it but if travelling from afar it does make you consider and like UTR said, if you do it as a day trip then it probably isn't quite the same experience.

If the 'Skins come over again I'll be there or if the wives team (Packers) come. Ideally they'd play each other at Wembley, kill two birds with one stone but I doubt either of them ever give up a home game.


Anyway, Week 4, the TNF clash is put under the OLBG Experts eyes:

Week 4 - TNF - Bears @ Packers

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Re: Week 4 2017 (Sept 28th -Oct 2nd) - Discussion and Information

Postby Gman84 » Tue Sep 26, 2017 8:30 pm

Oh and I meant to add. I'm (trying) to be careful this week and I want to try and process what went on in Week 3. We got tonnes of shocks but will they look like shocks later in the season? Did a couple of teams just have a bad day at the office? This is why rthe early days of the season are so so tricky!

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Re: Week 4 2017 (Sept 28th -Oct 2nd) - Discussion and Information

Postby DannyCraig » Tue Sep 26, 2017 9:57 pm

Also Gman, did you notice how many home teams won last weekend? Perhaps some of these "shocks" wouldn't have happened on the road....

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Re: Week 4 2017 (Sept 28th -Oct 2nd) - Discussion and Information

Postby DannyCraig » Tue Sep 26, 2017 10:08 pm

Just checked skybet, and they've gone 50.5!! That does seem too high - especially when you consider the Dolphins first 2 games went for 36 and 26. Now we all know the Saints D isn't fantastic but have the Dolphins got enough firepower under Cutler for the game to break 50? The alernative total points market might be worth a look too, as you can get 8/13 on under 53.5 - that added FG protection could be the difference.

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Re: Week 4 2017 (Sept 28th -Oct 2nd) - Discussion and Information

Postby Gman84 » Tue Sep 26, 2017 10:42 pm

Also Gman, did you notice how many home teams won last weekend? Perhaps some of these "shocks" wouldn't have happened on the road....
Definitely. The Jets, Bears, Bills and to a lesser degree, the Redskins all turned over well fancied teams at home. You have to think teams that will probably ended up with losing records are going to get more wins at home than on the road.

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Re: Week 4 2017 (Sept 28th -Oct 2nd) - Discussion and Information

Postby Gman84 » Wed Sep 27, 2017 9:27 pm

The aftermath of Week 3 and a look into Week 4...it can only be the OLBG Power Ranking:

Take a look here.

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