Week 3 2017 (Sept 21st-25th) - Discussion and Information

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Re: Week 3 2017 (Sept 21st-25th) - Discussion and Information

Postby TouchdownTips » Fri Sep 22, 2017 4:39 pm

I can never take the Steelers ATS on the road. Especially in a game they're expected to win easily. They always screw it up.

Also, I don't get the dislike of the Bengals defence, I've heard it a few times today, admittedly one was from Neil Reynolds who just doesn't like the Bengals, they've been very good. Geno Atkins has been their best player so far, which in fairness isn't saying a much, they have decent Corners, although Pacman Jones missing could be very important against such a potent Offense. Against a Packers team with a lot of injuries to the trenches, on offense and defence he and Carl Lawson, Smith etc... could cause them issues. The Bengals won't be facing a top 5 defence for the first time this season so should protect Dalton a little better. With a new offensive coordinator I expect AJ Green to get 10+ targets, and Joe Mixon to get the bulk of the carries. This could all be wrong of course, but I'm hoping he's going to go with his best players.

In short, personally I wouldn't be taking the Packers at such a big handicap... I would have been happier had it not looked like Jordy was going to play though!

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Re: Week 3 2017 (Sept 21st-25th) - Discussion and Information

Postby Gman84 » Fri Sep 22, 2017 6:59 pm

I don't get the dislike for the Bengals D either. If not for them I think it could have been A LOT worse for the Bengals in both games.

Anyway, accas galore as the OLBG NFL Experts let rip on Week 3. Social media shares encouraged and appreciated :win:

https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=413009

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Re: Week 3 2017 (Sept 21st-25th) - Discussion and Information

Postby Gman84 » Fri Sep 22, 2017 8:04 pm

I've just sent my prop bet to JB if he is doin his blog this week but I'll put it up here for anyone to consider.

Redskins TE Vernon Davis at 7/1 with William Hill for anytime TD. Several reasons. Firstly, it's a value price, he's 3/1 with bet365 and SkyBet. I;dhave been happy with about 9/2 - 5/1. Jordan Reed will be either limited or out with a chest and shoulder issue so Davis should see a few more snaps and possibly have his targets go up.

I'd also keep an eye on the status of Rob Kelley because if he can't go with his ribs then Samaje Perine looks an ok bet at 7/4 anytime also with Hills.

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Re: Week 3 2017 (Sept 21st-25th) - Discussion and Information

Postby TouchdownTips » Fri Sep 22, 2017 8:59 pm

As usual I've got quite a few for tomorrow...

I very much like Jack Doyle anytime at 9/4 vs the Browns. They don't do well against the tight end and Doyle got practically all of the targets from Brissett last week. - In that same game you can get 10/1 on Ricardo Louis for the Browns, Britt is a douche who only cares about the money, Corey Coleman is on IR again. So they're not left with a huge amount. Its Louis, Higgins and Njoku/DeValve?
James White is 15/8 for the Pats. They've got so many injuries in the WR corps and Brady seems to love him.

I have a feeling Sunday is the day for McCaffrey. He's playing a Saints team missing ... "Saints officially rule out cornerbacks Marshon Lattimore, Sterling Moore for Sunday's game at Carolina, along with OTs Armstead, Strief." They're were already crap on defence, this could be a real mess. He's 13/8 on 365

Alex Collins for the Ravens at 4/1 on 365 is pretty good odds, West is carrying a knock and Collins looked the better runner last week. It's decent odds for him, also like Ben Watson at 11/4 in the same game

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Re: Week 3 2017 (Sept 21st-25th) - Discussion and Information

Postby Gman84 » Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:22 pm

One that's come to my attention tonight is Giants RB Orleans Darkwa at 10/1 for an anytime TD with bet365. He's only had 8 touches so far in two games but given Paul Perkins lack of production and Darkwa's 5.2 yards per carry he could be set to get more involved. He's much shorter elsewhere, 3/1 with Skybet, 12/5 with Paddy Power. Well worth a chance IMO.

In the same game, LeGarrette Blount looks massive at 4/1 with Paddy Power. It's not been a bright start as a rusher for him as an Eagle (he barely touched the ball last week but some of that was down to game circumstances) but he has actually scored a receiving TD in Week 1 and he is still a short yardage threat. As short as 11/8 with SkyBet and William Hill.

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Re: Week 3 2017 (Sept 21st-25th) - Discussion and Information

Postby TouchdownTips » Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:30 pm

Darkwa is a good selection. As you say their rush attack is a false advertisement at the moment. They're horrible. So they may as well give something else a go.

Bo big odds for me this week, though Geronimo Allison for the Packers at 7/2 looks big if Cobb doesn't go which I expect he won't.

Few huge priced (quite obviously very long shots) I haven't got on my blog.

Elijah McGuire at the Jets. 25/1 (now 20s). He's been getting some play in place of Bilal Powell. Apparently not been awful.

Elijah Penny for the Cardinals. He has a play or two specifically for him in goal line situations, he is 14s on skybet.

I've got a double on Mccaffrey and White 2+ each at 288/1... Easy money
Last edited by TouchdownTips on Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Week 3 2017 (Sept 21st-25th) - Discussion and Information

Postby toadie21 » Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:30 pm

Toadies 5 ATS
The Dolphins offence looked well balanced last week as they had success in both the run and pass game. Their defence is probably what got them to the playoffs last season and they've improved this year with the offensive changes. And they should have no problems rolling this Jets team who are probably the worst team in the NFL, the less said about them the better. Dolphins easy win.

Packers at Lambeau is a big home advantage. Add to that they are playing the Bengals who have so far scored 0 touchdowns and this looks to be a 1 sided game. The Falcons did put the beat down on the Packers but the gulf between the Falcons offence and the Bengals is huge and I see the Packers bouncing back in a big way. Double digit win Go Pack Go.
Chargers are carrying last season trend of late drama and defeat and that's s bad habit. Chiefs are the Chiefs, they don't blow you away but they get the job done they grind away at teams with little 5-10 yard plays. However in rookie RB Hint they have an explosive offensive weapon who has been making big plays. I don't see much homefield advantage in the Chargers new home, Chiefs with the road win.

Redskins had a good win last week and looked very capable on offence, unlike the week before where they just couldn't do right. Very hot and cold. Whereas the Raiders offence is just hot hot hot. I was very unsure about the retrofit 'BeastMode' RB Lynch but he looks rejuvenated and is a great fit in this Raiders offence. This Raiders team had put up the points fast of slow the game and use some clock.

The Cardinals look lost, the passing game of a couple of years ago has dried up and maybe QB WR duo Palmer and Fitzgerald showing their age. Dynamic RB David Johnson was injured in the season opener and the run game couldn't get going either vs the Colts. The Cowboys had a bad beat last week but in Mile High against that top ranked Broncos defence it can be excused and in expect them to bounce back here and they are more than capable of covering the 3 points.

Dolphins -5.5, Packers -7.5, Chiefs -3, Raiders -3 & Cowboys -3

BOL gang

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Re: Week 3 2017 (Sept 21st-25th) - Discussion and Information

Postby TouchdownTips » Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:32 pm

I nearly completely agree Toadie... I can't go Packers vs my Bengals. But I put these up elsewhere at the start of the week...

Dolphins -6 (at Jets)
Broncos -3 (at Bills)
Chiefs -3 (at Chargers)
Raiders -3 (at Redskins)
Cowboys -3 (at Cardinals)

So pretty much the same selections!

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Re: Week 3 2017 (Sept 21st-25th) - Discussion and Information

Postby toadie21 » Sat Sep 23, 2017 9:04 pm

Brill
Nice to know that I'm not completely on my own with some of my picks.
I was wearing my Rodgers jersey in the bookies so they where the first team on my list haha GoPackGo.

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Re: Week 3 2017 (Sept 21st-25th) - Discussion and Information

Postby Gman84 » Sat Sep 23, 2017 9:23 pm

Good luck guys, my own personal acca this week is:

Broncos -3.0
Dolphins -6.0
Saints +5.5
Giants +6.0
Buc's -2.5

I know TT has a much better price/spread on the Buc's - fair play for that - but even at 2/2.5 to cover with no Sam Bradford I think they'll win and cover. I've gone the Eagles on the experts blog but I do think the Giants will play with a level of desperation and need that will keep it close and I did nearly go for them as a shock but couldn't quite do it. Kinda of why I left the Chargers/Chiefs alone, the Chargers keep bruning me but even so I can't keep flogging a dead horse. Even though it's a second road game and they have Wembley the week after I think the Dolphins to cover 6 points looks a solid enough bet and whilst I can accept the Broncos as not as strong a team on the road than at home and possibly they have the "bounce" factor to watch for, I don't see the Bills getting much out of Denver's D.


With regards to my Veronon Davis selection a few posts back, the 7's with Hills has long gone but can still get 5's with Coral.

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Re: Week 3 2017 (Sept 21st-25th) - Discussion and Information

Postby Gman84 » Sun Sep 24, 2017 8:29 am

I've just sent my prop bet to JB if he is doin his blog this week but I'll put it up here for anyone to consider.

Redskins TE Vernon Davis at 7/1 with http://olbg.info/2/L40/D/words target=_blank>William Hill for anytime TD. Several reasons. Firstly, it's a value price, he's 3/1 with http://olbg.info/7/L40/D/words>bet365> and SkyBet. I;dhave been happy with about 9/2 - 5/1. Jordan Reed will be either limited or out with a chest and shoulder issue so Davis should see a few more snaps and possibly have his targets go up.

I'd also keep an eye on the status of Rob Kelley because if he can't go with his ribs then Samaje Perine looks an ok bet at 7/4 anytime also with Hills.

Early reports today that both Reed and Kelley are OUT for tonight's game.

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Re: Week 3 2017 (Sept 21st-25th) - Discussion and Information

Postby Gman84 » Sun Sep 24, 2017 10:37 am

Perine can now be had at a best price 3/1 with Coral. All over it like a rash as Kelley is rumoured to be out.

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