Week 2 2017 (Sept 15th-18th) - Discussion and Information

Gman84
At Stud
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 3733
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2013 11:00 pm
Location: Liverpool, UK

Re: Week 2 2017 (Sept 15th-18th) - Discussion and Information

Postby Gman84 » Fri Sep 15, 2017 7:17 pm

- Jacoby Brissett, 4/1 anytime with Hills. Gets the start for the Colts and can run a fair bit. He came good for me last year when he made his sole start for the Pats against the Texans (although he was a massive 40/1 that night for 1st TD, I just got 9's for anytime but still a great price). Here's to lighting striking twice.
Part of the Colts underdog pick was a personal reliance on Indy benching Tolzien, who I have little regard for. He's probably a nice guy, but as a QB.... perhaps he needs a new vocation. Brissett has that added advantage of having been in a winning team, albeit a back-up, but he did play at times and when he did he showed some handy skills and appears to have some good vision for the game. And as Gman suggests he can run a fair bit. Even just his presence at the helm could increase the Colts offense potential a lot.
I definitely think him playing gives them a "better" chance but the Colts issues run deeper than just that. The defense stinks and without Vontae Davis, Larry Fitzgerald could have a field day.

Jim Brown
Stallion
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 7199
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:00 am
Location: Dallas, Texas. Go Cowboys, Rangers, Mavericks, Stars, FC Dallas, and Burn!
Contact:

Re: Week 2 2017 (Sept 15th-18th) - Discussion and Information

Postby Jim Brown » Fri Sep 15, 2017 7:34 pm

- Jacoby Brissett, 4/1 anytime with Hills. Gets the start for the Colts and can run a fair bit. He came good for me last year when he made his sole start for the Pats against the Texans (although he was a massive 40/1 that night for 1st TD, I just got 9's for anytime but still a great price). Here's to lighting striking twice.
Part of the Colts underdog pick was a personal reliance on Indy benching Tolzien, who I have little regard for. He's probably a nice guy, but as a QB.... perhaps he needs a new vocation. Brissett has that added advantage of having been in a winning team, albeit a back-up, but he did play at times and when he did he showed some handy skills and appears to have some good vision for the game. And as Gman suggests he can run a fair bit. Even just his presence at the helm could increase the Colts offense potential a lot.
I definitely think him playing gives them a "better" chance but the Colts issues run deeper than just that. The defense stinks and without Vontae Davis, Larry Fitzgerald could have a field day.

It's like I just said on Twitter with you guys - it's often the case of "do the odds outweigh the risk?". My head tells me that the Cardinals are the more obvious or likely winners of this, but there's a umber of negatives not in their favour. Inability to protect Palmer, Johnson out, second road game in a row. It only takes the Colts to respond to Brissett, have a good start by scoring or stopping the Cards, and with a home crowd behind them it could turn for them. Hey, we know it's happened before, and always we're left wondering afterwards how it happened - we were even thinking that very thing after the opening game of the season!

it's what i LOVE about NFL betting - there's just more little intricacies to NFL games/prospects than I used to see in, say, soccer games. I used to 'see' the same little things in horse racing and it irks me that I can't follow that any more because I used to do really well in that sphere.
OLBG Moderator
100% OLBG!
Follow me on Twitter: @ebook_olbg
Read My Blogs on OLBG
Founder of the OLBG NFL Underdog Blog

Jim Brown
Stallion
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 7199
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:00 am
Location: Dallas, Texas. Go Cowboys, Rangers, Mavericks, Stars, FC Dallas, and Burn!
Contact:

Re: Week 2 2017 (Sept 15th-18th) - Discussion and Information

Postby Jim Brown » Fri Sep 15, 2017 7:49 pm

ugh... I need to stop writing blogs late at night. I completely omitted the Saints from the Underdog Blog. Fixed now, and updated. :win:
OLBG Moderator
100% OLBG!
Follow me on Twitter: @ebook_olbg
Read My Blogs on OLBG
Founder of the OLBG NFL Underdog Blog

TouchdownTips
Group 2 Class
Tips
Posts: 165
Joined: Sun Jul 23, 2017 9:12 am
Location: Derby
Contact:

Re: Week 2 2017 (Sept 15th-18th) - Discussion and Information

Postby TouchdownTips » Fri Sep 15, 2017 8:59 pm



Part of the Colts underdog pick was a personal reliance on Indy benching Tolzien, who I have little regard for. He's probably a nice guy, but as a QB.... perhaps he needs a new vocation. Brissett has that added advantage of having been in a winning team, albeit a back-up, but he did play at times and when he did he showed some handy skills and appears to have some good vision for the game. And as Gman suggests he can run a fair bit. Even just his presence at the helm could increase the Colts offense potential a lot.
I definitely think him playing gives them a "better" chance but the Colts issues run deeper than just that. The defense stinks and without Vontae Davis, Larry Fitzgerald could have a field day.

It's like I just said on Twitter with you guys - it's often the case of "do the odds outweigh the risk?". My head tells me that the Cardinals are the more obvious or likely winners of this, but there's a umber of negatives not in their favour. Inability to protect Palmer, Johnson out, second road game in a row. It only takes the Colts to respond to Brissett, have a good start by scoring or stopping the Cards, and with a home crowd behind them it could turn for them. Hey, we know it's happened before, and always we're left wondering afterwards how it happened - we were even thinking that very thing after the opening game of the season!

it's what i LOVE about NFL betting - there's just more little intricacies to NFL games/prospects than I used to see in, say, soccer games. I used to 'see' the same little things in horse racing and it irks me that I can't follow that any more because I used to do really well in that sphere.
I felt I needed to clarify my statement about the odds always being what I look at. For the experts blog I don't look at the odds at all, I just go with who I think will win that match. But when I'm looking at anytime TD scorers, It's based a lot on variation in prices and whether I can justify that guy scoring on the night. Guys like Tolbert last week, he was 13/2 on PP, but around 3s elsewhere and (blowing my own trumpet) I nailed it with the write up on him and the justification. i mean I have a shortlist that i'll put together during the week then when it comes pricing up time I'll look around as soon as I can.

There's one I probably won't tip on my site that I'm on for this week which is a little too much of a long shot for me, basically same justification as Tolbert last week. Mr. Tommy Bohannon the Full back for the Jaguars. He had a goal line carry last week which I thought he got into the endzone, but was ruled against, then he caught one from the one and got in. I'll admit I'd never heard of the guy before last week, but given the fact they gave him a couple of goes at goal line work i'm happy to take 20/1 anytime on him at very low stakes.

Jim Brown
Stallion
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 7199
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:00 am
Location: Dallas, Texas. Go Cowboys, Rangers, Mavericks, Stars, FC Dallas, and Burn!
Contact:

Re: Week 2 2017 (Sept 15th-18th) - Discussion and Information

Postby Jim Brown » Fri Sep 15, 2017 9:19 pm

There's one I probably won't tip on my site that I'm on for this week which is a little too much of a long shot for me, basically same justification as Tolbert last week. Mr. Tommy Bohannon the Full back for the Jaguars. He had a goal line carry last week which I thought he got into the endzone, but was ruled against, then he caught one from the one and got in. I'll admit I'd never heard of the guy before last week, but given the fact they gave him a couple of goes at goal line work i'm happy to take 20/1 anytime on him at very low stakes.
That's just the type for a good prop bet, although you can guarantee if you post it the odds will tumble within minutes, for that very reason - no-one knows about him so there'd be no money in the pot for him already. Great spot, though.
OLBG Moderator
100% OLBG!
Follow me on Twitter: @ebook_olbg
Read My Blogs on OLBG
Founder of the OLBG NFL Underdog Blog

Gman84
At Stud
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 3733
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2013 11:00 pm
Location: Liverpool, UK

Re: Week 2 2017 (Sept 15th-18th) - Discussion and Information

Postby Gman84 » Fri Sep 15, 2017 9:59 pm

Jacoby Brissett now 10/1! bet365

Had to have some of that price. I geniunely felt 4/1 was just a little short of good value but was still ok whilst 11/2 seemed very fair. I think 10/1 is a massive price and that word value comes to mind.

Marlon Mack is also 10/1 with the same firm! Now maybe I'm asking too mich of the Colts here but they can't be as bad as last week (can they?) and whilst I don't think Brissett is going to turn things around instantly, he should at least make a few things happen with his legs and possibly the Cards, with their own offensive struggles might give them a hekping hand. Mack got involved last week and scored and at 10/1 for an anytime chance I think it's worth taking them both. You can still keep your stakes relatively small, one pays enough to cover any outlay comfortbaly with a tidy profit....they both score...well, that'd be nice!

undertherobe
Stallion
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 7233
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2010 11:00 pm

Re: Week 2 2017 (Sept 15th-18th) - Discussion and Information

Postby undertherobe » Fri Sep 15, 2017 10:43 pm

Brissett is a ridiculous price at 10/1. Any mobile QB shouldn't be close to that price.

Here's a question for you all. Scott Tolzien has been ripped to shreds all over the place this week. But the guy can clearly play football otherwise he wouldn't have started at Wisconsin or beat out guys like Andy Dalton & Colin Kapaernick for Best Senior QB in 2010.

So what happens to these guys? Is it a mental thing, have they rotted on the bench for too long that the game has passed them by?

Clearly the transition from college to the NFL is tough, but I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on why you think some of these guys turn into total duds almost overnight

Gman84
At Stud
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 3733
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2013 11:00 pm
Location: Liverpool, UK

Re: Week 2 2017 (Sept 15th-18th) - Discussion and Information

Postby Gman84 » Fri Sep 15, 2017 10:53 pm

Brissett is a ridiculous price at 10/1. Any mobile QB shouldn't be close to that price.

Here's a question for you all. Scott Tolzien has been ripped to shreds all over the place this week. But the guy can clearly play football otherwise he wouldn't have started at Wisconsin or beat out guys like Andy Dalton & Colin Kapaernick for Best Senior QB in 2010.

So what happens to these guys? Is it a mental thing, have they rotted on the bench for too long that the game has passed them by?

Clearly the transition from college to the NFL is tough, but I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on why you think some of these guys turn into total duds almost overnight
It's a fair question and you could take it further, why do some guys have success in the NFL then fade away. Not so much the RGIII's of this world (ROTY in 2012, no uneployed and I doubt ever sees and NFL field again) but say a guy like Nick Foles who tied a record for TD passes in a game and had an amazing TD/int ratio in his debut year but has since gone to the Rams and failed, went to KC and wasn't kept around and is now back at the Eagles.

I think with regards to college-NFL some guys are better suited to the pro game, others aren't. Nearly all QB's will have their footwork and the way they hold the ball tinkered with as a pro and just those little things can sometimes upset them. Others adapt well. As an example, I remember when Aaron Rodgers was coming out of Cal and one of the things that got his to drop from a possible #1 overall choice was a lot of coaches/scouts/GM's didn't like his college taught technique of holding the ball high to the side of the head, they felt he might lose his accuracy when he adapted to holding the ball lower - how'd that work out?

There's reasons guys like Ryan Leaf go so high in the draft and Tom Brady so low. It's also an individual thing - work ethic, right coahcing, system, fit. So timing and landing in the right place is probably a big thing too.

undertherobe
Stallion
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 7233
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2010 11:00 pm

Re: Week 2 2017 (Sept 15th-18th) - Discussion and Information

Postby undertherobe » Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:16 pm

Ryan Leaf :shock: is he still doing time? Whatever happened to JaMarcus Russell?

I still think Tim Tebow was robbed of a long NFL career. He's playing baseball in the NY Mets system, maybe the Jets could give him a call :D

As you say Gman, lots of things go into the transition between college & NFL, what works for one player won't for another.

Interesting point about guys like Foles. He got a bum steer when getting traded to the Rams and in hindsight could have stayed in LA to compete for the starting job with Goff instead of throwing his toys out the pram.

Someone like Osweiler saw the $$$ when staying in Denver surely would have been the better option

TouchdownTips
Group 2 Class
Tips
Posts: 165
Joined: Sun Jul 23, 2017 9:12 am
Location: Derby
Contact:

Re: Week 2 2017 (Sept 15th-18th) - Discussion and Information

Postby TouchdownTips » Sat Sep 16, 2017 6:20 am

Jacoby Brissett now 10/1! http://olbg.info/7/L40/D/words>bet365>

Had to have some of that price. I geniunely felt 4/1 was just a little short of good value but was still ok whilst 11/2 seemed very fair. I think 10/1 is a massive price and that word value comes to mind.

Marlon Mack is also 10/1 with the same firm! Now maybe I'm asking too mich of the Colts here but they can't be as bad as last week (can they?) and whilst I don't think Brissett is going to turn things around instantly, he should at least make a few things happen with his legs and possibly the Cards, with their own offensive struggles might give them a hekping hand. Mack got involved last week and scored and at 10/1 for an anytime chance I think it's worth taking them both. You can still keep your stakes relatively small, one pays enough to cover any outlay comfortbaly with a tidy profit....they both score...well, that'd be nice!
That is ridiculous odds on Marlon mack, I was looking for a decent price on him elsewhere, but he was around 2s for somewhere to go 5 times that is just plain crazy! Shame they're in the same game as that would have been an amazing double

Gman84
At Stud
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 3733
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2013 11:00 pm
Location: Liverpool, UK

Re: Week 2 2017 (Sept 15th-18th) - Discussion and Information

Postby Gman84 » Sat Sep 16, 2017 8:30 am

Ryan Leaf :shock: is he still doing time? Whatever happened to JaMarcus Russell?

I still think Tim Tebow was robbed of a long NFL career. He's playing baseball in the NY Mets system, maybe the Jets could give him a call :D

As you say Gman, lots of things go into the transition between college & NFL, what works for one player won't for another.

Interesting point about guys like Foles. He got a bum steer when getting traded to the Rams and in hindsight could have stayed in LA to compete for the starting job with Goff instead of throwing his toys out the pram.

Someone like Osweiler saw the $$$ when staying in Denver surely would have been the better option
Denver have made out like bandits with Osweiler (although he's hardly done bad out of the situation financially) but Elway was smart in that he had a ceiling on what he would pay and didn't go above it.

Team will always take risks on players but more so at Quarterback but when it goes wrong the ties also seem to get cut quicker.

With free agency, teams are less willing to allow a top pick to develop slowly. The Packers did it with aaron Rodgers as they had Favre but even the likes of Trubisky and Mahones this year are most likely to be starting next year and in the formers case I'd expect him to play this year at some point. There has to be growth in the run and I guess for some guys the level they have to get to catches them out. They've come from high schools and colleges where they've always been top dog and it's "easy" because they've generally dominated and all of a sudden they aren't dominating and it isn't easy and the pressure tells.

With regards to Tebow...I was a fan. I love his run in Denver a few years back but he was almost typecast when he came into the league (I was surprised he was a first round pick). To me he could have been a gadget player if he had been willing to transition. Basically a utility back who could run some trick plays from wildcat and other formations but maybe have developed into a guy like Jim "Crash" Jensen who played with the Dolphins in the '80's. Give him a google if you don't recall him.

TouchdownTips
Group 2 Class
Tips
Posts: 165
Joined: Sun Jul 23, 2017 9:12 am
Location: Derby
Contact:

Re: Week 2 2017 (Sept 15th-18th) - Discussion and Information

Postby TouchdownTips » Sat Sep 16, 2017 12:09 pm

Marlon Mack now 5/4. A guy called Louis Ross found it and posted it. That killed the price. But I have now got a free roll on it as I took my stake back. 5 quid would have been 55, took the fiver back, now 38 possible return

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users