College Football 2017

TouchdownTips
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Re: College Football 2017

Postby TouchdownTips » Sun Nov 12, 2017 9:52 am

I don't get to watch much College football due to risk of divorce, but the wife had her friend round last night so I watched the Auburn v Georgia state game (I had Auburn +3) Loved it. Obviously not a polished but a lot of fun to watch!

Helped that Auburn did well, and the kid I was pondering for the Heismann, Stidham looked good enough as well.

undertherobe
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Re: College Football 2017

Postby undertherobe » Sun Nov 12, 2017 9:58 am

I'll be interested to see how the playoff committee view Miami this week. 2 ranked wins in a row now although does VA Tech losing this week slightly devalue that Miami win last week?

Miami vs Clemson for the ACC title in a few weeks, the winner will definitely go to the playoffs.

martinr
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Re: College Football 2017

Postby martinr » Tue Nov 14, 2017 3:28 am

I'll be interested to see how the playoff committee view Miami this week. 2 ranked wins in a row now although does VA Tech losing this week slightly devalue that Miami win last week?

Miami vs Clemson for the ACC title in a few weeks, the winner will definitely go to the playoffs.
They were awesome v Notre Dame. Completely dominated the game from start to finish, never giving the Irish a look in. That ACC Title game will be good to watch and right now I'd be tipping the Hurricanes. That "turnover chain" thing the team has going looks to have injected something into the defence. With Georgia losing, Miami could conceivably jump to #2 without much argument.
Your Oklahoma tip is alive and well also. The weekend couldn't have gone much better for the Sooners and I'm interested to see what their futures price is when the markets reopen. They'll probably be underpriced but maybe could be used for hedging.
If I was to tip a likely Playoff scenario now it'd be:
#1 Alabama
#2 Miami or Clemson
#3 Ohio St or Wisconsin
#4 Oklahoma
That assumes Alabama beats both Auburn in Wk 13, and then Georgia in the SEC Title game. If one or both of those teams beats 'Bama then the SEC is going to give the committee a major headache.
If 'Bama win both games though, would the committee put a 2 loss Georgia ahead of a 1 loss Oklahoma?
No one knows what goes on in those Selection meetings, but I wonder if the committee would lean towards having a team from 4 separate Conferences if the choice isn't clear cut :?

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Re: College Football 2017

Postby martinr » Thu Nov 16, 2017 11:19 am

Here are the latest Rankings put out by the Selection Committee.
1. Alabama (10-0)
2. Clemson (9-1)
3. Miami (9-0)
4.. Oklahoma (9-1)
5. Wisconsin (10-0)
6. Auburn (8-2)
7. Georgia (9-1)
8. Notre Dame (8-2)
9. Ohio State (8-2)
10. Penn State (8-2)

From a futures standpoint this is interesting as the Committee has opened the door for Ohio St.
Wisconsin has moved ahead of the two SEC teams, with Auburn being placed ahead of Georgia. Auburn play Alabama in Week 13 and if Bama wins then the path for Ohio St is clear. The Buckeyes will likely meet Wisconsin in the Big 10 Title game, and it will now be easier for the committee to justify moving the Buckeyes into the 4 if they win that game. I think Ohio St can be backed to run up the score whenever possible in their last 3 games.

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Re: College Football 2017

Postby martinr » Sat Nov 18, 2017 3:56 am

Week 12 is a letdown week for fans after the smorgasbord of Weeks 9-11. A few of the top teams have scheduled a pseudo bye this week in the leadup to the pointy end of the season. Still, there'll likely be some good betting spots lurking amongst some of the lower profile games.
Michigan @ Wisconsin is the main event. This opened Wisconsin -10 and has moved to -7. Last week there was another major move in the Big 10 (Ohio St) that landed easily, which would give me pause in backing the Badgers here despite their solid form. A move this big against an unbeaten home team that will be highly motivated is a bit surprising. The game is projected to be low scoring though so it could simply be teaser protection against Michigan getting 2 full touchdowns in 6 point teasers. It's not a betting game for me anyway.

Minnesota @ Northwestern.
Minnesota +7.5

This is the only game I've had a chance to dig into. I took Minnesota +7.5 early in the week and it's now at +7.
Northwestern are cruising to their 3rd straight Bowl season. They have a 7-2 record and a fairly easy game to finish the regular season next week at Illinois. However, despite winning 5 straight they've had a pretty tough month. Three straight games went to overtime before they faced Purdue last weekend, who were beaten but did out-gain Northwestern and had their chance to send the Wildcats into yet another period of overtime.
I think it all catches up with Northwestern this week. They are the better team but face a highly motivated 5-5 Gophers team that will be looking to clinch a Bowl appearance here before facing Wisconsin in Week 13.

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