2017 Season Build-up/Preview/Tips/Selections

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Re: 2017 Season Build-up/Preview/Tips/Selections

Postby TouchdownTips » Tue Aug 08, 2017 4:39 pm

I was under the impression they didn't ever go below 4 on season win totals. Surely 3.5 is unprecedented?! I think only 3 teams have ever had less than double digit passing TDs in history, they could easily do that this year.

Where is any team 0-16 at 33s? Places I saw were 18s at best?

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Re: 2017 Season Build-up/Preview/Tips/Selections

Postby undertherobe » Tue Aug 08, 2017 4:55 pm

My mistake, it was the Jets to go 0-16 that was 33/1. Although since my post, Ladbrokes have cut them to 25/1 which cuts a fair chunk off the value.

This will be a historically bad season for the Jets I think. Defensively I don't think they'll be that bad, but you can't compete week in week out without offensive contribution.

I see no value in giving the starting job to Josh McCown. He's 38 with a career pass percentage below 60% and he has almost as many interceptions as touchdowns. They'd be better going with Petty & Hackenberg. At best, one turns out to be pretty decent, at worst, you've given them a chance to prove themselves

Sam Darnold is the aim but the Jets could get burnt as Darnold isn't certain to jump ship to the NFL a year early. He's also still got a lot to prove in the college game before I'd be comfortable seeing him as the top pick.

Apologies if I missed it on an earlier post but do you have a favourite NFL team TouchdownTips?

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Re: 2017 Season Build-up/Preview/Tips/Selections

Postby TouchdownTips » Tue Aug 08, 2017 6:51 pm

Yeah the Jets are going to be awful. Interestingly, the only bookie I could find with future week prices still had the Jags as underdogs against them, unfortunately it's American based and won't allow sign ups from the UK by the look of it.

Jets are the only team who are going to go 0-16 this year, but slightly less tempting as you say. I'll see if Sky can give a request a bet price on it, doubt it'll be higher than 25s though. They've got some interesting ones on site already tbh. Although generally very long shots!

Would be quite funny if they do all this with the hope of getting Darnold and he decides to stay although there are a couple of other prospects who are better this this year aren't there? Can't remember if I asked you on here or whether I asked someone on twitter what you thought of Stidham at Auburn? Heard him a few months back put up by Fezzik as an outsider for the Heisman

I'm a Bengals fan. Going to be an interesting season there! One of the most loaded offences on paper, but can they survive having a potentially woeful offensive line? I think they'll be ok, Dalton releases the ball quickly, and Mixon could be a star very quickly. But it most of the things I read think it'll kill their season. We shall see!

Adam.

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Re: 2017 Season Build-up/Preview/Tips/Selections

Postby undertherobe » Tue Aug 08, 2017 7:12 pm

The difficulty with Mixon is that his off field issues cloud people's judgement about him. So you find people refusing to accept his ability.

He's a quality back, but I think there are better than him taken lower in the draft. He's in the right place as Marvin Lewis will treat him like a son and make sure he's in the right frame of mind. I reckon he'll take some stick from opposing players because of his past so it'll be interesting to see how he handles that.

Personally I don't get the Stidham hype at all. 3 starts in the Big 12 for Baylor back in 2015 is a pretty small sample size considering he has to face Clemson, LSU & Alabama this season. It's a big step up in quality on defense, despite his obvious talent & maturity beyond his years. But then no one was talking about Lamar Jackson this time last year.

Interestingly, some 2018 mock drafts I've seen have 5 QBs going in round one, including both Stidham & Jackson.

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Re: 2017 Season Build-up/Preview/Tips/Selections

Postby TouchdownTips » Tue Aug 08, 2017 7:31 pm

I did a bit on the whole Mixon thing that you can find if you want to. The off field thing was one incident when he was 18 and 1 day old. It's been dealt with (wrongly or rightly) and everyone has moved on. Personally I doubt there will be anything. But you are definitely right people use that against him and will continue to. 2 ways of looking at it with Lewis, either he's joined a team of scumbags and he will mix and become scum, or they have a history of dealing with these "troubled" guys.

Who did you think was better further down? The likes or Kamara? Hunt?

Interesting on Stidham. He was 40s earlier in the off season, think the best is 20 now so I'll give it a miss. Surprised Jackson being mocked first round, isn't he too lightweight for the NFL in reality? (I don't watch any college stuff so knowledge is very limited, I know he blew up last year and averaged a lot of TDs in the first half of the season though) I know there's a lot of teams who will need QBs so obviously that's why this early.

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Re: 2017 Season Build-up/Preview/Tips/Selections

Postby undertherobe » Tue Aug 08, 2017 7:53 pm

D'Onta Foreman was a steal in the 3rd round whilst both Donnel Pumphrey & Marlon Mack are going to be stars. To be honest, the 2017 draft was packed full of RB talent.

These early mock drafts can often be like reading the British papers during the transfer window. Most of it is done to keep sites active, keep writers in a job & generate some talking points during the quiet during the football downturn.

The QB market is an interesting one. Team's are so desperate for that franchise pick that they are willing to overpay in the draft for fear that a rival will get there instead. A case in point was the 2016 draft. Goff & Wentz going top 2 was a complete joke, especially compared to 2015 when Mariota & Winston were both NFL ready straight out the gate.

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Re: 2017 Season Build-up/Preview/Tips/Selections

Postby TouchdownTips » Tue Aug 08, 2017 8:17 pm

AH, I forgot about Foreman, he and mack don't have an awful lot in the way of being big parts this year (actually got 80s on Foreman for OROY, if Miller goes down who knows) Pumphrey I haven't seen or heard as much about.

Didn't even mention Perine who was a beast while doing Mixons job for that year. Was a very deep RB class!

Unfortunately the pats have it right as always. Pick a day 2/3 QB every year and see how it goes. If they're good great. If not. Who cares

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Re: 2017 Season Build-up/Preview/Tips/Selections

Postby Gman84 » Wed Aug 09, 2017 3:35 am

I do think the Jets are going to struggle mightly as well. I think Bowles was allowed to continue with the thought that it's easier to get rid of a guy in year three with no playoffs again than a new coach but playing the likes of McCown brings nothing. I do think the running game can be ok and I really like Bilal Powell who could quietly have a very nice season but the passing game has next to nothing and will struggle badly.

As for the Bengals, TT has hit on my worry for them, the offensive line. It's been a strength under Marv Lewis for years but the loss of Whitworth and Zeitler so former first round pick Cedric Ogbuehi needs to really step up after a really bad rookie year on the right side which seen him benched. The camp reports on his switch to LT have been pretty positive but w'll see how it goes when the real bullets begin to fly. The Bengals should still be able to pass the ball fine but where the offensive line changes hurt them is running the ball. They've been a very underrated running team for years now but Mixon/Hill willstruggle if the O-line doesn't come together quickly. If it does, the Bengals could surprise a few people although I find it hard to look past the Steelers in the AFC North.

I'm a massive AJ Green fan. Had the pleasure of watching him at Wembley last season (even if I was supporting the opposition) and he gave Josh Norman fits all day long although that's not to slight Josh Norman as Green is just that good.

Lets hope Marv Lewis is ok from his health scare as well. I do suspect this could be his last year (I thought he was going to go after last season to be honest) before he retires.

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Re: 2017 Season Build-up/Preview/Tips/Selections

Postby titans choice » Wed Aug 09, 2017 12:17 pm

Given the New York Jets lack of quality at wide receiver and the quality of tight end in front of Jordan Leggett with Eric Tomlinson who has never caught a ball in the league and Austin Seferian-Jenkins who played 7 games for the Jets last year catching 10 passes of 17 thrown to him for 110 yards and 0 touchdowns.I can see Leggett maybe making the starting line up and if he does i can see him getting plenty of catches but i know it is a very long shot as his team would but lucky to win 2 games this year but out of curiosity i can not find him does anyone know what odds he is for the rookie of the year?

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Re: 2017 Season Build-up/Preview/Tips/Selections

Postby TouchdownTips » Wed Aug 09, 2017 5:19 pm

I do think the Jets are going to struggle mightly as well. I think Bowles was allowed to continue with the thought that it's easier to get rid of a guy in year three with no playoffs again than a new coach but playing the likes of McCown brings nothing. I do think the running game can be ok and I really like Bilal Powell who could quietly have a very nice season but the passing game has next to nothing and will struggle badly.

As for the Bengals, TT has hit on my worry for them, the offensive line. It's been a strength under Marv Lewis for years but the loss of Whitworth and Zeitler so former first round pick Cedric Ogbuehi needs to really step up after a really bad rookie year on the right side which seen him benched. The camp reports on his switch to LT have been pretty positive but w'll see how it goes when the real bullets begin to fly. The Bengals should still be able to pass the ball fine but where the offensive line changes hurt them is running the ball. They've been a very underrated running team for years now but Mixon/Hill willstruggle if the O-line doesn't come together quickly. If it does, the Bengals could surprise a few people although I find it hard to look past the Steelers in the AFC North.

I'm a massive AJ Green fan. Had the pleasure of watching him at Wembley last season (even if I was supporting the opposition) and he gave Josh Norman fits all day long although that's not to slight Josh Norman as Green is just that good.

Lets hope Marv Lewis is ok from his health scare as well. I do suspect this could be his last year (I thought he was going to go after last season to be honest) before he retires.
I can only imagine they've seen enough from Ogbeuhi to believe he can do the job, I think he was literally bottom 3 last year, while Whit was near no.1 in pressures allowed. The guy was a beast.
I had the pleasure of watching that game at Wembley as well, Norman was outclassed all day, the amount of hands to the face calls against him was ridiculous, and frankly frustrating, he just didn't seem to know what to do, and if Dalton hadn't been a bit off target on a few throws he'd have had another 60+ yards on the day. Was telling that when Norman went off that fed Green the ball though, they obviously respected Norman enough to not only target AJ.
Looks like Marv is back at training today and seems to be ok, I agree I think it will be his last year, it's tough to criticise him given where they came from at the start of his tenure, but the lack of playoff win is obviously pretty awful, so it's probably time for him to go, I think the plan was for Hue to take over but that went south when a position came up for him.

Regards to Leggett in NY, i thought that PP would of had a price for him, they seemed to have more guys priced than anywhere else, but nothing anywhere by the look of it. There's been a fair bit of hype around ASJ as well, but he's missing the first 2 games so should give Leggett a good run at cementing that spot.

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Re: 2017 Season Build-up/Preview/Tips/Selections

Postby Gman84 » Wed Aug 09, 2017 6:46 pm

Yes Norman got called an awful lot in that game. he did drop two clean ints though, one would have been a pick 6. A tie still feels strange!

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Re: 2017 Season Build-up/Preview/Tips/Selections

Postby Mogweister » Thu Aug 10, 2017 9:02 pm

Although I agree that the jets are in for a tough season, I don't think that they are going to get blown out every week. I think that the defence has a chance to keep games pretty close against most opponents. I'm looking forward to seeing the impact that the two new safety's Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye immediately have on the team, and a fully fit Morris Claiborne, should help shore up the hemoraging secondary from last season. And there's no doubting the talent in the front seven. I'd expect the jets to run the ball plenty and I really like the tandem of Bilall Powell and Matt Forte. And would expect them to split the load in the backfield. With virtually no proven pass catchers in the receiver group, I'd assume they will be playing a ball control ground and pound type game, and heavily relying on the defence to keep them in games. They're obviously on a hiding to nothing this year, and won't have a chance if they go two or three scores down. But like the browns last year, I wouldn't be surprised to see them in some really close games come the end of the fourth quarter, and I don't think they will go 0-16, they have too much talent on the defensive side of the ball to let that happen.

Also just noticed that William Hill are offering 6/1 On Deshaun Watson being named rookie of the year, There's talent on the Texans offence with Hopkins, Fuller, Fiedorowicz, and Lamar Miller. Anyone else think this is a decent price?
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