2019 Movie Awards

LustForLeith
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Re: 2019 Movie Awards

Postby LustForLeith » Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:33 am

It’s still too early but I’m thinking I’m going for First Man for Best Picture.

In some places it’s come crashing down to 4/1 but Betway have it at 12s. Similar to the World Cup it’s quite wide open so it’s worth watching for a couple of months.

There’s a couple of trailers that make an interesting watch. First up is Widws. Steve McQueen, director of 12 Years A Slave, raised eyebrows when his next project was announced as a remake of the Lynda La Plant story of the wives and girlfriends of criminals taking over from they’re partners.

The trailer looks really good. Instead of a dumb action film it looks close in sport to Heat and has a great cast.

A Star Is Born has been remade with Bradley Cooper starring and directing. He’s impressive in the trailer but a massive surprise is Lady Gaga as the star in question. It will be interesting if they go for best actress or supporting actress but whatever category she’s a contender for an award and then film could be up for some as well.

If there’s any Lady Gaga to be nominated or win an Oscar specials, I’d View with interest.

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Re: 2019 Movie Awards

Postby LustForLeith » Sat Jun 09, 2018 4:58 am

First Man official trailer has been released and it looks great!

We all know Neil Armstrong walks on the moon. But this focuses on how he got there. And if people love a story of American triumphing against the odds it’s American Oscar voters.

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Re: 2019 Movie Awards

Postby stereoman » Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:58 am

If there’s any Lady Gaga to be nominated or win an Oscar specials, I’d View with interest.
Ladbrokes/Coral are offering a kind of carrot of 5/1 on Lady Gaga to win 'Best Original Song' for "A Star Is Born" but they don't specify which song. The song most likely right now is called "The Shallow" and is produced by Mark Ronson.

"First Man" has seen some money as it becomes a general favourite to win 'Best Picture' and is as obsceningly low as 3/1 with those shysters SportingBet.

"On the Basis of Sex" which has seemingly come 'out of nowhere' is the story of Ruth Bader Ginsburg played by Felicity Jones and it could be a wicked sleeper as there's also the documentary "RBG" to help motor it's cause along. It's 20/1 at SportingBet.

Other odds from SportingBet:

* Will Damien Chazelle be nominated for best director? Yes 3/10, No 11/5 (corrected odds from the previous post)
* WIll Ryan Gosling be nominated for best actor? Yes 33/100, No 2/1
* Will Brad Pitt be nominated for best actor? Yes 3/1, No 1/5
* WIll Timothee Chalamet be nominated for an Oscar? Yes 19/20, No 3/4
* Will Steve Carell be nominated for an Oscar? Yes 11/20, No 13/10
* WIll Stephen James be nominated for an Oscar? Yes 3/1, No 1/5
* WIll Viggo Mortensen be nominated for an Oscar? Yes 11/5, No 3/10

Possibly, possibly, no ("Ad Astra" seems to be too late in the race as it gets a wide release in january 2019 & most of the contenders will have been identified), yes & he's currently favourite to win ("Beautiful Boy"), no ("Backseat" and Sam Rockwell apparently is being pushed instead of Steve Carell. "Welcome to Marwen" does NOT look good either), maybe (it's StephAn James btw & he's in "If Beale Street Could Talk") and no ("Green Book" seems far too flimsy right now).

The narrative this year may be for a black director to finally win (am definitely looking at Barry Jenkins, Steve McQueen and even Spike Lee but not Ryan Coogler or Ava DuVernay) but in a perverse reversal of fortune unlike "12 Years a Slave" and " Moonlight", their film might not win 'Best Picture'.

"First Man" has some pressure as the favourite to win 'Best Picture' so early and far out as it opens the Venice Film Festival and superficially, you don't want to be the favourite.

I still don't understand why "Black Panther" is still considered viable to win.

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Re: 2019 Movie Awards

Postby LustForLeith » Fri Aug 10, 2018 5:52 am

The Oscars are changing!

They’re now having a category for Beat Popular film which will give the chance for blockbusters and genre film to win an Oscar. The ceremony is going to be shorter with a lot of awards being handed out during the commercial break!

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Re: 2019 Movie Awards

Postby LustForLeith » Thu Aug 30, 2018 11:57 am

Venice Film Featival underway and First Man has its first reviews. And they’re first class!

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Re: 2019 Movie Awards

Postby stereoman » Thu Aug 30, 2018 11:33 pm

I'd be minorly surprised if it can replicate "The Shape of Water" and make it two VFF winners in a row that win the Best Picture Oscar but it's scared the bookies enough to trim it even further.

"The Favourite" and "Roma" have opened with, on the whole, glowing reviews but I do wonder if costume drama, and a black and white film about a Mexican family can score big at the Oscars.

"A Star is Born" is something that is quietly gathering steam and there may even be talk of Lady Gaga for an Oscar nomination...for acting. Mind you, back in 2002, the likes of Eminem ("8 Mile") and Adam Sandler ("Punch-Drunk Love") were talked with some seriousness as Oscar contenders but the AMPAS voting bloc got scared into their usual middlebrowedness.

There's still the likes of "If Beale Street Could Talk" and "Widows" to make an impression.

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Re: 2019 Movie Awards

Postby LustForLeith » Sat Sep 01, 2018 7:35 am

I'd be minorly surprised if it can replicate "The Shape of Water" and make it two VFF winners in a row that win the Best Picture Oscar but it's scared the bookies enough to trim it even further.

"The Favourite" and "Roma" have opened with, on the whole, glowing reviews but I do wonder if costume drama, and a black and white film about a Mexican family can score big at the Oscars.

"A Star is Born" is something that is quietly gathering steam and there may even be talk of Lady Gaga for an Oscar nomination...for acting. Mind you, back in 2002, the likes of Eminem ("8 Mile") and Adam Sandler ("Punch-Drunk Love") were talked with some seriousness as Oscar contenders but the AMPAS voting bloc got scared into their usual middlebrowedness.

There's still the likes of "If Beale Street Could Talk" and "Widows" to make an impression.
I think A Star Is Born is going to do well. I can see Bradley Cooper being nominated for director, writer and maybe star. Lady Gaga set to be put forward for Beat Acctress instead of supporting actress is a surprise.

I think Black Panther will get the Pipular film and it’s director Ryan Coolder will be nominated fr best director.

More to follow!

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Re: 2019 Movie Awards

Postby LustForLeith » Mon Sep 17, 2018 7:44 am

Green Book wins the audience prize at the Toronoto Film Festival which is a great indication of it being up for the Oscars.

Interestingly enough BWin have priced its star Viggo Mortenseen as 11/5 on being nominated for an Oscar. That’s a great price!

Tip - Viggo Moetenseen to be nominated for an Oscar 11/5 BWin

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Re: 2019 Movie Awards

Postby stereoman » Mon Sep 17, 2018 3:50 pm

Viggo Mortensen has that odd knack of seemingly getting that, presumably, fifth spot.

I have a hard time thinking "Green Book" will be a major contender considering it's director but "The Big Short" had Adam McKay nominated for Best Director so maybe the snobbery is slowly evaporating.

Meanwhile elsewhere...

The odds for "A Star Is Born" is getting smashed and it's now around 3/1 or less as it's the new favourite. I'll believe it when I see it as you don't want to be the favourite this early and then have everyone hammer down why you shouldn't win but mind you, "The Shape of Water" survived numerous obstacles to win the Oscars war but losing numerous precursor awards battles (Golden Globes, BAFTA0 along the way.

Wish I nabbed the 5/1 on Lady Gaga to win Best Original Song as it must be odds-on now.

Ladbrokes have early odds on various categories.

*BEST PICTURE*

A Star Is Born 3/1
First Man 4/1
Roma 6/1
Green Book 7/1
Beautiful Boy 10/1
Blackkklansman 10/1
The Front Runner 10/1
If Beale Street Could Talk 12/1
Widows 12/1
Vice 14/1
Eighth Grade 16/1 The Favourite 16/1
Ad Astra 20/1
Black Panther 20/1
Everybody Knows 20/1
The Rider 20/1
Mary Queen of Scots 22/1
Boy Erased 25/1
Hereditary 25/1
The Irishman 25/1
The Tale 25/1
The Women of Marwen 25/1
Avengers: Infinity War 50/1
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom 100/1
Solo: A Star Wars Story 100/1
Toy Story 4 100/1

*BEST DIRECTOR*

Alfonso Cuaron 7/4
Damien Chazelle 3/1
Spike Lee 4/1
Bradley Cooper 6/1
Barry Jenkins 8/1
Steve McQueen 10/1
Yorgos Lanthimos 14/1
Ryan Coogler 16/1
Adam McKay 25/1

*BEST ACTOR*

Bradley Cooper 5/2
Christian Bale 4/1
Ryan Gosling 5/1
Robert Redford 6/1
Willem Dafoe 6/1
Rami Malek 8/1
Ethan Hawke 10/1
Hugh Jackman 12/1
Steve Carell 16/1
John David Washington 20/1
Lucas Hedges 20/1
Timothee Chalamet 20/1

*BEST ACTRESS*

Glenn Close 2/1
Lady Gaga 4/1
Melissa McCarthy 4/1
Olivia Colman 5/1
Viola Davis 6/1
Toni Collette 16/1

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Re: 2019 Movie Awards

Postby LustForLeith » Mon Sep 17, 2018 5:32 pm

Any odds of Bradley Cooper being nominated for three awards? If he wrote the Lady Gaga song he could be on for four

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Re: 2019 Movie Awards

Postby stereoman » Mon Sep 17, 2018 5:58 pm

I feel that may be too specific but I remember William Hill way back in 2004 accommodated a "Lord of the Rings" fan at odds of 50/1 that "The Return of the King" would win every Oscar it was up for so I can only suggest to ask around and hope somebody bites...even those scaredy cats Paddy Power but I'd say ask Betfair before going to them. Ladbrokes, I feel, are always game for the Oscars.

https://variety.com/2006/film/awards/br ... 117936104/

OFF-TOPIC: In the above article, it states that some mystery woman walked into a branch of William Hill three days (11th October 2005) before Daniel Craig was announced as the sixth James Bond wanting to place $15k at odds of 4/1 that would indeed happen. They only allowed her $1k at those odds.

Absolute shysters at EON and Sony...they'll leave it very close again before the seventh James Bond is ever announced.

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