UK Box Office

LustForLeith
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UK Box Office

Postby LustForLeith » Mon Jul 31, 2017 3:42 pm

I was perusing he bookies specials to see anything of interest and I noticed this market. Eventually had a bit of success with it last year so thought I'd try again.

This time it appears to be highest grossing film in the UK this year. I'm unable to check the small print but it's between Beauty and the Beast and the new Star Wars film, the Last Jedi.

Beauty and the Beats has already made approx £72 million at the UK box office and Star Wars is released on December 15. So it would have two weeks to beat it! Can it do it?

I'm not too sure. When the Force Awakens came out there was a lot of hype around seeing there old characters back on screen. That's no longer the case although we should get a bit more Luke Skywlker!

There is the tragic passing of Carrie Fisher. If you take into account Heath Ledger passing ablest before The Dark Knight you could argue that p ole went to see his last performance.

I just think it's a lot for the film to make in a short period of time. Rouge One, in all fairness a spin off, didn't a break box office records. What was a novelty a couple of years back seems a bit stale just now.

I'm going for Beauty and the Beast at 5/4. The real winner is Diseny as they have both films!

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Re: UK Box Office

Postby stereoman » Fri Sep 29, 2017 4:53 pm

Am amazed since late July that the odds on this hasn't moved and that the market hasn't been taken down or at least readjusted.

Image

It's almost 'free money' here and it's seemingly yet another enormous mistake by whoever put it up.

"Star Wars Episode 8: The Last Jedi" isn't going to make $100 million in three weeks or so in the UK to overtake "Beauty and the Beast"...if it does, I'll cry "SHENANIGANS!!" as it's almost impossible that it can happen.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/uk/yearly/

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Re: UK Box Office

Postby LustForLeith » Wed Oct 04, 2017 6:34 am

I noticed that Paddy Power have started to offer odds on box office specials. I missed the Blade Runner one but there’s another three for the rest of the year.

These are weekend opening box office

Thor Raganarok Over 255 9/10 Under 255 9/10
Justice League Over 245 8/11 Under 245 11/10
Star Wars: The Last Jedi Over 555 9/10 Under 555 9/10

I’m not sure what currency they’re talking about but I’m sure it’s dollars.

Let’s get down to the films.

I don’t think Thor won’t make over $255 in it’s opening weekend. Why? Because of Marvel films they opening a week later in their biggest marker, America. That means it’s got to make a hell of a lot of month worldwide to top $255. And while it might, I very much doubt it will be enough.

Tip Under $255 9/10

Justice League is an interesting one. I feel a bit sorry for DC films as they are often torn to pieces by critics and cinema goers without really being given a chance and they’re not that bad.

Wonder Woman was a massive critical and commercial hit for them and this has Batman and maybe Superman in it. There’s a downside that it will be opening not long after Thor but it will be opening world wide in the same weekend.

Tip Over $245 8/11

Star Wars will make a lot of money. It’s opening worldwide at the same time but The Force Awakens managed to make $529. The current record is The Fate of the Furious which made $541.

So can The Last Jedi make as much as The Force Awakens? I don’t think so. There’s the Carrie Fisher factor to consider and more of Luke Skywalker will be good but it doesn’t have the novelty factor that The Force Awakens had.

Tip Under $550 9/10

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Re: UK Box Office

Postby stereoman » Wed Oct 04, 2017 8:41 am

A few years ago betting on the over/under first weekend total at the US/Canada box office was a thing but I assume some savvy folks kept beating the lines that was set and thus the oddsmakers quickly got bored.

Find it a bit more tricky that PP also include worldwide totals and not just focus on the US/Canada weekends. It seems fraught with danger...if a film opens in China at the same time then the 'over' whatever the number quoted has to be considered a favourite unless the number is too high.

Good luck, Lust.

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Re: UK Box Office

Postby LustForLeith » Wed Oct 04, 2017 4:55 pm

A few years ago betting on the over/under first weekend total at the US/Canada box office was a thing but I assume some savvy folks kept beating the lines that was set and thus the oddsmakers quickly got bored.

Find it a bit more tricky that PP also include worldwide totals and not just focus on the US/Canada weekends. It seems fraught with danger...if a film opens in China at the same time then the 'over' whatever the number quoted has to be considered a favourite unless the number is too high.

Good luck, Lust.
Cheers
Strangely enough I'm sure the biggest grossing film of the year so far is Chinese!

I like looking into how much films gross. There was a lot of hype with IT saying it would make in America no more than $60 million at the lost. I had it down at $80 million due to the hype nostalgia and the most viewed trailer in You Tube history! It opened with over $100 million!

If there's any other sites offering prices on this then feel free to print up here and we'll see what we can do!

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Re: UK Box Office

Postby LustForLeith » Fri Oct 13, 2017 4:35 pm

This is going to get confusing...

Just realised when I went to book tickets for Thor it's out in a Tuesday! So will the opening weekend be the following weekend? Even if it is it's not out in America until the following week!!

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Re: UK Box Office

Postby LustForLeith » Sun Oct 15, 2017 3:10 pm

I noticed that Paddy Power had taken the market off line but now it's back. As far as I can tell they've adjusted the odds in line with what I mentioned above.

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Re: UK Box Office

Postby LustForLeith » Mon Oct 30, 2017 2:28 pm

I’ve been in touch with Paddy Powe as Thor has been released in international markets and it’s doing very well this weekend before its launch everywhere else next weekend.

With that in mind Paddy Power have stated it’s from the opening weekend when it’s first our. With that in mind it will make a lot and strip expectation but without the American market that they don’t seem to be including it won’t hit over.

Time will tell!

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Re: UK Box Office

Postby stereoman » Tue Oct 31, 2017 5:57 pm

Seems like an unbelievably easy 'under $255m' in retrospect if last weekend opening in 36 countries was the bet as Marvel do like to put out a movie a week or two before the North American release for whatever reason.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4339&p=.htm
https://screenrant.com/thor-3-ragnarok- ... ox-office/

If they combine the totals to include the US & other countries numbers for this week then it'll easily sail over $255m but that definitely wasn't the bet.

If only this weekend counts (which it should) as it makes its US debut and opens in the big markets such as China, Germany and Japan then it might make around $230m ($100m US + $130m international) so that over/under $255m will be contentious....that Screen Rant article suggests a US opening of $125m is possible!

No idea why they didn't add caveats really to make the parameters of what the bet is about much more clearer.

OT: No idea what limits Paddy Power may have got you under but they've got me to a pitifully small amount these days...am not a winner with them so no idea what they're playing at.

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Re: UK Box Office

Postby stereoman » Sun Nov 05, 2017 7:40 pm

An estimated $121m opening weekend in the US! Not really sure what the opening weekends for the other countries were this weekend.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4341&p=.htm

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Re: UK Box Office

Postby LustForLeith » Mon Nov 06, 2017 2:48 pm

An estimated $121m opening weekend in the US! Not really sure what the opening weekends for the other countries were this weekend.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4341&p=.htm
I seen that.

Paddy Power saying it was the first weekend not including this weekend. They’re going to get back to me as it takes longer to settle these bets!

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Re: UK Box Office

Postby stereoman » Mon Nov 06, 2017 8:08 pm

$151m international this weekend gone past.

https://www.screendaily.com/news/thor-r ... 83.article

If it is the first weekend then Paddy Power will likely void it as it was a clear under when they likely meant the weekend just gone...which would be a contentious over but I'm not sure which countries would be counted by Paddy Power.

A shambles in setting the parameters of the bet really.

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