2018 Oscars

LustForLeith
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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby LustForLeith » Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:21 pm

I know, I know... :D

The nominations haven't yet been announced for his years awards but it doesn't stop me getting interested in next years ceremony. Especially when I've made such a mess of picking winners this year!

I've tried to get a price on a 2018 winner and the only bookie to come back with one was http://olbg.info/4/L40/D/words>Paddy Power. Here goes!

Gary Oldman to win Best Actor Oscar 2018 5/2

Let's start with the reasons as why its a bad bet. The odds are short for a film which is still being made and when you don't know what he'll be up against.

Its from director Joe Wright who has done well with the likes of Atonement and then not so well with that n
Peter Pan film!

Oldman will play Winston Churchill in the early stages of World War 2 as he tries to stop Hitler in the movie called The Darkest Hour. Actors playing real life characters have a great record of winning the Best Actor Oscar, I'll produce stats when I get a minute!

Churchill has been portrayed by many actors over the years but theres one publicity shot and he looks the part. He shouild be able to put in a performance which helps him stand out although others like Anthony Hopkins in Nixon and Leonardo Di Caprio in J Edgar Hoover.

I just think Oldman deserves this. He failed to get even a nomination for Tinker Taylor Solider Spy which was a travesty. There's a danger that people will associate him with big budget films and it may be too political. But he'll also have Ben Mendleson acting alongside him whose one of the best.

Its a risk. A big one. And after being burned by both Michael Keaton and Adam Driver this year its a risk I shouildnt be taking.

But I am!

Someone mentioned that the odds seem to be low for this years Oscars and bookies seem to be scared of pricing awards up too soon. But in some instances the early bird catches the worm!

Gary Oldman to with e Best Actor Oscar 2018 5/2.
First reviews are in and Gary Oldman being touted as the man to be at this years Oscars!

Still a long way to go...

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Sun Sep 24, 2017 10:43 pm

Gary Oldman was 3/1 with Coral/Ladbrokes then 5/2 and is now 2/1. If "The Darkest Hour" gets an accompanying Make-up & Hairstyling nomination then it may be close to two hands on the Best Actor Oscar...mind you, if Gary Oldman isn't getting raves by nominations time and opposition is coming from somewhere else then the bet's sunk...I don't see where the opposition is coming from though.

I think Coral/Ladbrokes are first out of the gate in regards full odds on Best Actor and Best Actress.

Image

The obligatory odds fro Best Picture...

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Am surprised by the move for "The Post" nee "The Papers" (aka "Get Steven Spielberg a Third Oscar Project"). Surprise Venice winner "The Shape of Water" has its own supporters. Cannot call it at this stage. I'd still have to peg "Dunkirk" as the favourite at this stage even though it will very likely inevitably get usurped by whatever is this year's designated oh so worthy BP winner.

"Three Billboards..." was this year's Audience Award/People's Choice winner at Toronto. I feel the streak ends this year at TIFF AA/PC winners being nominated for the BP Oscar.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Toro ... val#Awards

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby LustForLeith » Wed Oct 11, 2017 5:21 am

I've not had a good check to see which films are affected but the recent Harvey Weinstein allegations will probbaly have an effect on the Oscars this year.

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Wed Oct 11, 2017 10:23 am

Only "The Current War" and "Wind River". The team behind "Lion" must be relieved it wasn't postponed!

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby LustForLeith » Wed Oct 11, 2017 6:33 pm

Only "The Current War" and "Wind River". The team behind "Lion" must be relieved it wasn't postponed!
Good point!

I throught he had something to do with The Paper?

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Thu Oct 12, 2017 2:52 pm

Looks like It's now called "The Post". Don't think Harvey Weinstein has anything to do with it.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Post_(film)
http://variety.com/2017/film/in-content ... 202583057/

Amusingly here are Awards Daily's 'pre-Harvey Weinstein revelations' Oscars predictions...

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2017/10/06/p ... hollywood/

Looks like I may be very wrong about "Three Billboards..." not being nominated for Picture.

William Hill have updated odds and I think they're the first bookie to have odds up for Best Director with which Christopher Nolan is understandable huge odds-on...

Image

Gary Oldman is odds-on at 8/13. Sally Hawkins is a narrow favourite at 13/8 ahead of Frances McDormand at 9/4. "Dunkirk" is 3/1 ahead of "The Post" and "The Shape of Water" both at 5/1 ahead of "Three Billboards..." at 6/1.

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby LustForLeith » Sun Oct 22, 2017 11:22 am

I’m going to study this soon but Gary Oldman can only lose the Oscar apparently. I’d there’s odds available take them!

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby Sagand » Mon Oct 23, 2017 8:30 pm

Yeah, Gary Oldman is locked. He has everything a best actor winner needs he's an overdue veteran playing a larger than life historical figure. The reviews for the film are good (not great) around the same place Theory of Everything was when Redmayne won, but Oldman is singled out as the standout in almost all of them.

His competition is dire. Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name) is probably closest, he's 21 which would make him the youngest Best Actor nominee in 75 years and would be the youngest winner ever. Safe to say he isn't the type the old men of the academy usually go for.

Daniel Day Lewis already has three, even with news of his retirement I don't think they will be in rush to give a fourth. The trailer was released today and the part looks soft spoken and more subtle than his previous wins.

Gyllenhaal's movie flopped at the boxoffice. Hanks already has two so isn't overdue. Denzel has two and the film flopped with critics. Hugh Jackman's film had some rumors of terrible test screening and looks to be more aimed at commercial success than awards. Garfield's film flopped with critics and the boxoffice. Franco's part isn't baity enough.

Really the odds on Oldman should be 1/10 at worst.

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Wed Nov 22, 2017 12:58 am

I wouldn't disagree but there is rhubarb about for Daniel Day-Lewis taking an unprecedented fourth Best Actor award which seems absurd. The only thing that will take Gary Oldman down is lack of enthusiasm or a skeleton coming out of his closet.

I appear to be so incredibly wrong about the chances of "Three Billboards..." as it's now favourite with some bookies ahead of "Dunkirk" and "The Post" to win Best Picture. No idea what the odds of Martin McDonagh are for Best Director. Frances McDormand is either favourite or fending off Sally hawkins for Best Actress.

No odds about for Supporting Actor (apparently a fistfight between Willem Dafoe, Sam Rockwell and Armie Hammer) or Supporting Actress (the main event looking like a showdown between Allison Janney and Laurie Metcalf).

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Fri Dec 01, 2017 2:41 am

The anti-Gary Oldman campaign seems to have begun as critics groups seemed to have 'iced' him out for winning.

https://twitter.com/AwardsDaily/status/ ... 8044787712

I genuinely can't see where the opposition will come from (Daniel Day-Lewis!? Timothee Chalamet!? James Franco!? Tom Hanks!?) unless Gary does or says something extremely stupid but they will try to grab something from his past particularly him defending Mel Gibson ('Hacksaw Ridge' won two Oscars!) to hinder him. They gave Best Actor to Casey freaking Affleck last time out for Chrissakes!

Various bookies have some interesting nomination prop bets about. Has SportingBet been acquired by BWin!? They seem to be sharing some similar markets if not!

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby LustForLeith » Sat Dec 09, 2017 7:18 pm

Just started a new job so not had much time to go over things but The Disater Artis could spring a late surprise...

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Mon Dec 11, 2017 10:52 am

Golden Globe nominations announced today. Most precursor awards have been all over the place in arguably the most open contest for years.

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