2018 Oscars

LustForLeith
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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby LustForLeith » Mon Jan 08, 2018 6:23 am

The Golden Globes are a funny lot from the strange categorisation (Get Out as a comedy?!) To The shocks you often get.

I’m not a fan of them because of this. I think of it as the equavilant Of a pre season friendly in football, damned if you do win, damned if you don’t.

Personally I’m beginning to get worried about Gary Oldman winning the Oscar but I’ll take him losing this if he wins it.

It’s also quite hard to get any value as those certs are already at low odds!

But here goes!

Best supportig Actor In A Dramatic Role

Let’s just say the best actor category is already won in this and the Oscars. The supporting actor category is wide open.

When t comes to the Oscars it could be a fight to the end between Willem Dafoe, Sam Rockwell and Christopher Plummer.

Who’ll win? Who knows but I think Dafoe has this. There was talk that he’d be in the lead actor category but with Oldmans performance there’s a lot of people running scared. This meant that Dafoe has been switched to the supporting category which could be defined as confidence.

Willem Dafoe (4/6)


Best Picture

Dunkirk has been the early runner but it doesn’t seem to be holding up in awards season. Three Billboards was my initial pick but I’m more inclined to go for The Shape Of Water.

I’ve not had a chance to see it yet but I hear it’s a great film that’s also a technical marvel.

The Shape Of Water (7/4)

Best Director

And if the Shape Of Water wins best film, then I think it’s director Guillermo Del Toro could win his category.

Often working within the realms of fantasy, Hollywood could be about to award someone of a visionary.

Del Toro Best Director (5/4)

Best Actress

Another close race. Frances McDormand against Sally Hawkins. And although the Shape Of Water is my Tip for the big prizes I think Three Billboards five times nominated is finally going to get a win.

Frances McDortmand Best Actress (evens)

Best Supporting Actress

This is another close one. Laurie Mercalf for Lady Bug and Alison Janney for I, Tonya

I’m going for the later. Both performances have been praised by critics but it’s Janney for me.

Alison Janney (5/2)

Three out of five.

Roll on the Oscar nominations!

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:47 pm

Those on fancy prices on "Lady Bird" and "Three Billboards..." must be looking a little smug as the HFPA generally played safe and followed their lead from various critics awards and what scored nominations at the guilds. I still think there's a twist in the tale though and the guilds haven't been 100% in the past few years but they are obviously a strong indicator as to where the proverbial wind is blowing. The Oscars generally don't like to follow directly what the Golden Globes have picked in the past few years though.

The #MeToo campaign seems to have meant that female led films have gotten more sway and the SAG Ensemble winner could be key whether the Best Picture Oscar is more likely going towards "Lady Bird" or "Three Billboards...".

I would guess the PGA winner might miss out on Best Picture at the Oscars again and that the DGA winner may be the strongest indicator this time around. The WGA could be a slight 'red herring'. BAFTA can be a help as much as a hindrance.

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:34 am

BAFTA nominations are out...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-42618239

...and "Three Billboards..." takes a slight lead over "Lady Bird" in terms of Oscar 'momentum' even if "The Shape of Water" leads in most nominations here.

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby pandabear123 » Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:40 am

James Franco in The Disaster Artist , for the best actor, and Margot Robbie in I, Tonya , for the best actress = these are my predictions for this year's Oscar festival.

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby LustForLeith » Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:57 am

James Franco in The Disaster Artist , for the best actor, and Margot Robbie in I, Tonya , for the best actress = these are my predictions for this year's Oscar festival.
Robbie could have an outside chance. With various revelations, Franco might not.

But you never know!

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:38 pm

Voting for the nominations ends today so if the recent revelations are anything to go by then James Franco will conveniently miss out.

I feel the final five will be: Timothee Chalamet, Daniel Day-Lewis, Daniel Kaluuya, Gary Oldman and Denzel Washington.

The DGA nominations were out last night...

* Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)
* Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
* Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
* Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
* Jordan Peele (Get Out)

To take BAFTA and the DGA nominations at face value then del Toro, McDonagh and Nolan are 'guaranteed' to get an Oscar nomination but there are some whispering that Nolan could be vulnerable.

Luca Guadagnino (Call Me By Your Name) and Denis Villeneuve (Blade Runner 2049) seem to be on the outside looking in as are the likes of Steven Spielberg (The Post) and Joe Wright (Darkest Hour).

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby pandabear123 » Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:27 pm

James Franco in The Disaster Artist , for the best actor, and Margot Robbie in I, Tonya , for the best actress = these are my predictions for this year's Oscar festival.
Robbie could have an outside chance. With various revelations, Franco might not.

But you never know!
Well, now i can see Franco is probably out. Gore Oldman is the favorite.

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby LustForLeith » Sat Jan 20, 2018 7:42 pm

Seven Actor Guilds tomorrow then the Oscar nominations accounced.

Some of the categories are really hard to predict.

Sam Rockwell won the Golden Globe in best supporting actor category but Willem Dafoe was favourite and seemed to have a lot of the plaudits up until then.

I’m unsure about the Oscars between them but I’m going for Dafoe to win this one. 11/8 Paddy Power

Sean Hayes has won the comedy actor award a few times already and I fancy him to win again at evens.

Allison Janney didnwell For is in the Golden Globes and I think she’ll edge it again.

Currently 13/8 on Betway

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Sun Jan 21, 2018 6:08 am

Producers Guild awards were just handed out on Saturday night and the winners were "Coco", "Jane" and "The Shape of Water".

Last two winners were "The Big Short" and "La La Land" so 'hold fire'...in such a hotly contested year, a backlash to the PGA winner and/or support for another nominee can very easily happen again.

Don't think the SAG will support "The Shape of Water" by giving Sally Hawkins or Richard Jenkins a win so by Monday morning any momentum it will have had might be lost...unless it somehow leads with the most number of Oscar nominations on Tuesday afternoon.

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Sun Jan 21, 2018 8:12 pm

Missed the boat as Betway were offering odds on all categories bu here are SAG awards odds from Betfair/Paddy Power...

Actor ~

Gary Oldman 1/9
Timothee Chalamet 11/2
James Franco 14/1
Daniel Kaluuya 10/`
Denzel Washington 25/1

If Gary doesn't win this then the doubt begins. He should though despite murmuring that Daniel and Timothee are spoilers.

Actress ~

Frances McDormand 3/10
Saoirse Ronan 10/3
Sally Hawkins 6/1
Margot Robbie 20/1
Judi Dench 33/1

Frances is the perceived favourite and has won before with all the momentum going with her. No idea who would have enough support to cause an upset though.

Supporting Actor ~

Sam Rockwell 4/7
Willem Dafoe 11/8
Richard Jenkins 18/1
Woody Harrelson 25/1
Steve Carell 33/1

Momentum from the Golden Globes has seemingly propelled Sam Rockwell ahead of Willem Dafoe. It is showier and actors probably will respond to that.

Supporting Actress ~

Allison Janney 4/6
Laurei Metcalf 'evens'
Hong hau 14/1
Mary J Blige 20/1
Holly Hunter 25/1

Repeat and rinse in regards Allison Janney overtaking Laurie Metcalf because of the Golden Globes.

Ensemble ~

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 3/10
Get Out 5/1
Lady Bird 5/1
Mudbound 18/1
The Big Sick 33/1

Interesting to note that the last film to win this category plus two acting prizes was "The Help". Think I agree with the folks over at Awards Daily in that "Three Billboards..." might not win and will chance my arm on "Get Out" as the spoiler. "Lady Bird" could easily be the other spoiler if the #MeToo campaign feels that it's more their thing than "Three Billboards..." is.

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2018/01/19/s ... t-actress/

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:44 am

It's looking like the consensus is continuing to happen as Allison Janney and Sam Rockwell both win.

With Gary Oldman and Frances McDormand possibly justifyinv odds-on quotes then only Ensemble seems likely to possibly be a surprise.

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby LustForLeith » Mon Jan 22, 2018 6:09 am

Seven Actor Guilds tomorrow then the Oscar nominations accounced.

Some of the categories are really hard to predict.

Sam Rockwell won the Golden Globe in best supporting actor category but Willem Dafoe was favourite and seemed to have a lot of the plaudits up until then.

I’m unsure about the Oscars between them but I’m going for Dafoe to win this one. 11/8 http://olbg.info/4/L40/D/words>Paddy Power

Sean Hayes has won the comedy actor award a few times already and I fancy him to win again at evens.

Allison Janney didnwell For is in the Golden Globes and I think she’ll edge it again.

Currently 13/8 on http://olbg.info/84/L40/D/words>Betway>
One out of three!

Will be interesting what will happen with the Oscars. I still think Rockwell might not win but he’s got the momentum!

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