2018 Oscars

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:54 pm

Screen Actors Guild awards nominations were announced around 3pm GMT.

Lead Actor:
* Timothee Chalamet ("Call Me By Your Name")
* James Franco ("The Disaster Artist")
* Daniel Kaluuya ("Get Out")
* Gary Oldman ("Darkest Hour")
* Denzel Washington ("Roman J. Israel, Esq.")

Lead Actress:
* Judi Dench ("Victoria and Abdul")
* Sally Hawkins ("The Shape of Water")
* Frances McDormand ("Three Billboards...")
* Margot Robbie ("I, Tonya")
* Saoirse Ronan ("Lady Bird")

Supporting Actor:
* Steve Carell ("Battle of the Sexes")
* Willem Dafoe ("The Florida Project")
* Woody Harrelson ("Three Billboards...")
* Richard Jenkins ("The Shape of Water")
* Sam Rockwell ("Three Billboards...")

Supporting Actress:
* Mary J. Blige ("Mudbound")
* Hong Chau ("Downsizing")
* Holly Hunter ("The Big Sick")
* Allison Janney ("I, Tonya")
* Laurie Metcalf ("Lady Bird")

Ensemble:
"The Big Sick"
"Get Out"
"Lady Bird"
"Mudbound"
"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"

===============

Negatives ~

* No "All the Money in the World", "Phantom Thread" or "The Post".

Positives ~

* "The Big Sick", "Get Out" and "Mudbound" getting much needed boosts after the Golden Globes.
* "Lady Bird" and "Three Billboards..." may be your new Oscar frontrunners after these nominations though.

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby LustForLeith » Tue Dec 19, 2017 10:36 pm

After being confident (over confident?!) for about a year I’m worried about Gary Oldman missing out.

Watch timothee chalamet pick up a lot of awards and plaudits just now!

C’mon Gary!!!!

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Tue Dec 26, 2017 9:36 pm

Variety are early in calling out what they think will be nominated in all 24 categories.

http://variety.com/2017/film/in-content ... 202647787/

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Fri Jan 05, 2018 6:08 pm

In what is still a very close race, the PGA nominations have been announced...and there's eleven nominees!

* The Big Sick
* Call Me by Your Name
* Dunkirk
* Get Out
* I, Tonya
* Lady Bird
* Molly's Game
* The Post
* The Shape of Water
* Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
* Wonder Woman

The biggest surprise nominee probably being "I, Tonya" and "Molly's Game".
Kyle Buchanan with some insta-thoughts as to why "Darkest Hour", "The Florida Project", "Mudbound" and "Phantom Thread" were snubbed.

https://twitter.com/kylebuchanan/status ... 1060063232

Over in Animated Feature...

* The Boss Baby
* Coco
* Despicable Me 3
* Ferdinand
* The Lego Batman Movie

Don't think "Ferdinand" gets nominated at the Oscars and "The LEGO Batman Movie" may suffer from bias against 'product placement'. Am expecting a few arthouse hits such as "The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales", "The Breadwinner", "In this Corner of the World" and "Loving Vincent" to knock out "The Boss Baby" and "Despicable Me 3" as well.

Golden Globes are this Sunday...might come up with some predictions.

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby LustForLeith » Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:10 pm

The Golden Globes are a funny lot from the strange categorisation (Get Out as a comedy?!) To The shocks you often get.

I’m not a fan of them because of this. I think of it as the equavilant Of a pre season friendly in football, damned if you do win, damned if you don’t.

Personally I’m beginning to get worried about Gary Oldman winning the Oscar but I’ll take him losing this if he wins it.

It’s also quite hard to get any value as those certs are already at low odds!

But here goes!

Best supportig Actor In A Dramatic Role

Let’s just say the best actor category is already won in this and the Oscars. The supporting actor category is wide open.

When t comes to the Oscars it could be a fight to the end between Willem Dafoe, Sam Rockwell and Christopher Plummer.

Who’ll win? Who knows but I think Dafoe has this. There was talk that he’d be in the lead actor category but with Oldmans performance there’s a lot of people running scared. This meant that Dafoe has been switched to the supporting category which could be defined as confidence.

Willem Dafoe (4/6)


Best Picture

Dunkirk has been the early runner but it doesn’t seem to be holding up in awards season. Three Billboards was my initial pick but I’m more inclined to go for The Shape Of Water.

I’ve not had a chance to see it yet but I hear it’s a great film that’s also a technical marvel.

The Shape Of Water (7/4)

Best Director

And if the Shape Of Water wins best film, then I think it’s director Guillermo Del Toro could win his category.

Often working within the realms of fantasy, Hollywood could be about to award someone of a visionary.

Del Toro Best Director (5/4)

Best Actress

Another close race. Frances McDormand against Sally Hawkins. And although the Shape Of Water is my Tip for the big prizes I think Three Billboards five times nominated is finally going to get a win.

Frances McDortmand Best Actress (evens)

Best Supporting Actress

This is another close one. Laurie Mercalf for Lady Bug and Alison Janney for I, Tonya

I’m going for the later. Both performances have been praised by critics but it’s Janney for me.

Alison Janney (5/2)

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:34 pm

My Golden Globe predictions...

(Best odds where available)

Best Picture - Drama:

* The Post 21/10 (Betstars)
* The Shape of Water 5/2 (Stan James)
* Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 7/2 (Stan James)
* Dunkirk 6/1 (Betfred)
* Call Me By Your Name 11/1 /(Marathonbet)

I feel the blue on Oddschecker for "The Shape of Water" is telling. It's scored mostly across the board at the various guilds. It will be a tussle between that and "Three Billboards..." but I feel the tiebreaker with the HFPA is it is the nomination leader and the GGs might pin its hopes on that.

"The Post" shouldn't be counted out if the rhubarb is anything to go by that it is apparently popular within the HFPA (it's about journalists! Did they give "Spotlight" anything!? NO!! They went for "The Revenant" instead!]) but strangely I feel there won't be that much anti-Trump sentiment reflected in the winners as the HFPA has been generally very conservative over the years.

MY PREDICTION: "The Shape of Water"
GOLDDERBY EXPERTS CONSENSUS PREDICTION: "The Shape of Water" followed by "The Post"

http://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/exp ... rt/recent/

Best Picture - Musical/Comedy:

* Lady Bird 4/7 (Stan James)
* Get Out 5/2 (Coral/Ladbrokes/SportingBet)
* The Disaster Artist 18/1 (Marathonbet)
* I, Tonya 20/1 (Coral/Ladbrokes)
* The Greatest Showman 40/1 (Betstars)

Slight nibbles on "Get Out" according to Oddschecker.

The last genuine shocker here was when the HFPA went for "The Grand Budapest Hotel" over eventual Oscar champion "Birdman" and I feel there will be instant headlines when the darkly comic but not particularly comedic "Get Out" upsets the generally positive goodwill for "Lady Bird". Occasionally they will stick to their proverbial category fraud guns as they did when they picked "The Martian" over "The Big Short" and the placement here may mean that the Golden Globes will be very stubborn not to be proved wrong and they don't mind letting the whole world know it! Also, it's the biggest box office hit of the bunch and the HFPA will want to show how 'woke' they are as they generally avoid anything with non-white folk in it.

MY PREDICTION: "Get Out"
GOLDDERBY EXPERTS CONSENSUS PREDICTION: "Lady Bird" followed by "Get Out"

Best Director:

* Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk) 4/5 (Paddy Power)
* Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water) 13/8 (bet365)
* Steven Spielberg (The Post) 12/1 (Betfred)
* Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards...) 14/1 (Betstars/BetVictor)
* Ridley Scott (All the Money in the World) 33/1 (Betfred)

Guillermo del Toro has been backed into favoritism ATB when I checked Oddschecker and I suspect someone might know how the HFPA are going to go. Alongside his contemporaries Alfonso Cuaron and Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, he may finally join the other members of Cha Cha Films as an Oscar contender over in Director and may very well even win.

Christopher Nolan has been the longtime frontrunner but I feel the support for "Dunkirk" has dwindled and so may his chances at an Oscar. I suspect the green-eyed monster is at play as he did get $20 million plus a chunk of the royalties for it so that may be his reward. Would hate it if they go for a big name like Steven Spielberg as they did with Martin Scorsese when he won for "Hugo" over Michel Hazanavicius for "The Artist".

MY PREDICTION: Guillermo del Toro for "The Shape of Water"
GOLDDERBY EXPERTS CONSENSUS PREDICTION: Guillermo del Toro for "The Shape of Water" followed by Christopher Nolan for "Dunkirk"

More predictions to come later.

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Sun Jan 07, 2018 2:31 am

Best Actor - Drama:

* Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) 1/3 (general)
* Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name) 4/1 (Betfair/Betfred/Betway/Boylesports)
* Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread) 10/1 (BetVictor/Betway/Leovegas/William Hill/Winner)
* Tom Hanks 12/1 (bet365/BetVictor/Betway/Boylesports/Leovegas/Winner)
* Denzel Washington (Roman J Israel, Esq.) 22/1 (Marathonbet)

Does Gary Oldman's previous statements abut the HFPA and the Golden Globes mean that they will grudgingly recognize his achievements!? I think "YES!!" and that the HFPA will bear grudges. Sean Penn did win in 2004 for "Mystic River" but lost out to Mickey Rourke in 2009 for also snubbing the HFPA.

Daniel Day-Lewis will apparently be attending.

https://twitter.com/OscarPredictor/stat ... 7007334400

If this is his farewell then maybe the HFPA will want to see him on stage? It might help him get an Oscar nomination if he wins and get in over the likes of Franco, Hanks. Kaluuya, Washington and even Oldman. Chalamet is a popular spoiler but if anyone is going to upset the party for Oldman here, it's probably Day-Lewis.

I feel BAFTA and AMPAS will recognize Gary Oldman though.

MY PREDICTION: Daniel Day-Lewis for "Phantom Thread"
GOLDDERBY EXPERTS CONSENSUS PREDICTION: Gary Oldman for "Darkest Hour" followed by Timothee Chalamet for "Call Me By Your Name"

Best Actress - Drama:

* Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) 5/4 (BetVictor)
* Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water) 13/8 (Betway)
* Meryl Streep (The Post) 8/1 (Betfred)
* Jessica Chastain (Molly's Game) 16/1 (Betfred/Betstars)
* Michelle Williams (All the Money in the World) 25/1 (Betfred)

Not betting on it but they do unhealthily love them some Meryl Streep. The HFPA have never given Frances McDormand a win and if they want to reward "Three Billboards..." or "The Post" then a surprise win by McDormand or Streep over Hawkins can easily be fixed. Thanks for playing Chastain and Williams.

Feel Frances will win and give out a powerful speech about police brutality and unlawful killing though. Plenty of #MeToo opportunities with presenters and other possible winners.

Will "The Post" go home empty-handed? A few film critics I follow think it can't but I think it might very will do.

https://twitter.com/awards_watch/status ... 1417317376

MY PREDICTION: Frances McDormand for "Three Billboards..."
GOLDDERBY EXPERTS CONSENSUS PREDICTION: Frances McDormand for "Three Billboards..." followed by Sally Hawkins for "The Shape of Water"

Best Actor - Comedy/Musical:

* James Franco (The Disaster Artist) 2/5 (general)
* Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out) 9/2 (Leovegas)
* Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes) 10/1 (bet365/Betfair/Paddy Power)
* Hugh Jackman (The Greatest Showman) 16/1 (bet365/BetVictor/Betway/Winner)
* Ansel Elgort (Baby Driver) 25/1 (bet365/Betfair/Betway/Paddy Power/Skybet)

Very much the battle of those that have been nominated for SAG and James Franco superficially has nothing but praise with very little negativity against him. Daniel Kaluuya is possibly hoping that the HFPA really REALLY like "Get Out" though.

For some strange reason if an upset is coming, I think it's from Hugh Jackman with an assist from "Logan" as well if it somehow happens. Thanks for playing Carell and Elgort but James Franco to win until further notice. If Tommy Wiseau is around then I think it'd be too delicious not to get James and Tommy on stage at the same time though!

MY PREDICTION: James Franco for "The Disaster Artist"
GOLDDERBY EXPERTS CONSENSUS PREDICTION: James Franco for "The Disaster Artist" followed by Daniel Kaluuya for "Get Out".

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Sun Jan 07, 2018 4:08 am

Best Actress - Comedy/Musical:

* Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird) 4/9 (Betfair)
* Margot Robbie (I, Tonya) 4/1 (Leovegas/Marathonbet/Skybet)
* Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes) 12/1 (Marathonbet)
* Judi Dench (Victoria and Abdul) 14/1 (Betfred/Marathonbet/Paddy Power/Betfred)
* Helen Mirren (The Leisure Seeker) 28/1 (Marathonbet)

I somehow don't feel that the HFPA are not that enamoured by "Lady Bird" that the critics and guilds are. Saoirse superficially has one up on Margot as she was on "Saturday Night Live" a few weeks ago but the skit about Ireland bombed badly. I do get the odd felling that the Golden Globes will want to give one to Margot and in this battle of the midterm ingenues, I think Margot will triumph over Saoirse and at the odds I think it''s worth a speculative punt on a night of seeming certain uncertainties that such a thing happens.

Thanks for playing Dench, Mirren and Stone.

MY PREDICTION: Margot Robbie for "I, Tonya"
GOLDDERBY EXPERTS CONSENSUS PREDICTION: Saoirse Ronan for "Lady Bird" followed by Margot Robbie for "I, Tonya"

Best Supporting Actor:

* Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project) 17/20 (Leovegas)
* Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) 7/2 (Marathonbet)
* Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World) 13/2 (Leovegas)
* Armie Hammer (Call Me By Your Name) 8/1 (bet365/Marathonbet)
* Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water) 33/1 (Betfred)

Superficially this should be WIllem's award to lose if only going by critics awards but it seems there's supposedly a rumour going around that the HFPA want to stick it to Kevin Spacey and give this one to Christopher Plummer instead. I will take a speculative punt for possibly one of the first shock results of the night in that they will go for Plummer again before they even go near any of the other four.

The HFPA have never given Willem an award and they may not be not enamoured by "The Florida Project".

https://www.goldenglobes.com/person/willem-dafoe

MY PREDICTION: Christopher Plummer for "All the Money in the World"
GOLDDERBY EXPERTS CONSENSUS PREDICTION: Willem Dafoe for "The Florida Project" followed by Christopher Plummer for "All the Money in the World"

Best Supporting Actress:

* Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird) 1/2 (Paddy Power/Marathonbet)
* Allison Janney (I, Tonya) 3/1 (Leovegas/William Hill)
* Mary J. Blige (Mudbound) 13/1 (Marathonbet)
* Hong Chau (Downsizing) 14/1 (Betfred)
* Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water) 25/1 (Marathonbet)

If they want to reward "Lady Bird" then this is as good an opportunity as any to it. Perversely, I think "I, Tonya" could win here for Allison but if that happens then Margot Robbie probably doesn't...one win but not both! The same goes for Saoirse Ronan and Laurie. Thanks for playing Blige, Chau and Spencer.

MY PREDICTION: Laurie Metcalf for "Lady Bird"
GOLDDERBY EXPERTS CONSENSUS PREDICTION: Laurie Metcalf for "Lady Bird" followed by Allison Janney for "I, Tonya"

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby LustForLeith » Sun Jan 07, 2018 8:42 am

Great work Stereoman :win:

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Mon Jan 08, 2018 12:40 am

Good news, bad news about Gary Oldman winning this year's Best Actor Oscar as he has turned up at the Golden Globes. Whether or not the HFPA will want to snub him or not remains to be seen but with just less than 20 minutes to go, Daniel Day-Lewis is nowhere to be seen. Looks like the upset that I was predicting won't happen and Gary will give a hilarious apology to the HFPA whilst accepting his award.

BAFTA nominations are announced on Tuesday and the end of Oscar voting is next Friday.

https://theplaylist.net/2018-oscar-voti ... -20170404/

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:20 am

Meh. Sam Rockwell beats out Willem Dafoe and my pick, Christopher Plummer. Yikes...could be a very good night for "Three Billboards...".

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:09 am

Ugh. Zigged when I should have zagged.

I was right that both "I, Tonya" and "Lady Bird" wouldn't get two acting wins but I was wrong that Margot and Laurie would be the right combination as Saorise and Allison won instead.

Wrong about "The Shape of Water" ("Three Billboards..."), "Get Out" ("Lady Bird"), Daniel Day-Lewis (Gary Oldman), Christopher Plummer (Sam Rockwell) as well.

Right about James Franco and Frances McDormand.

Guillermo del Toro winning digs me out of a fairly sizable hole. Urgh.

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