2018 Oscars

LustForLeith
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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby LustForLeith » Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:53 pm

Before the Oscar nominations I’ve found three bets of interest on BWin

Meryl Streep to be nominated for an Oscar (evens)

She’s unlikely to win one this year with it being a fight between Sally Hawkins and Frances McDormand. And even without them she’s still got Saoirse Ronan and Margot Robbie to deal with. But Streep has a great chance of being nominated.

Steve Spielberg to be nominated 11/5

He got his work cut out as it’s a fierce field but are the Academy Awards ready to nominate a woman (Greta Gerwig) a black man (Jordan Peele) and non Americans such as Del Toro and Nolan all at the same time?

I’d hope so but I don’t think so.

Longest speech between Best Actor and Best Actress

So it’s between Gary Oldman and Frances McDormand.

Frances is known for being slightly off kilter and whacky. She’s also sworn when picking up an award recently sonmay need to watch it.

Oldmans speech’s have been passionate but McDormand may well use hers as a timely platform for #MeToo.

If the two of them do win this will be Oldmans first Oscar and I think the occasion will get to him.

Longest acceptance speech best actor 6/5

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby LustForLeith » Tue Jan 23, 2018 8:27 am

Streep down to 9/10..!

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:36 pm

The main event is "Three Billboards..." (the likely winner) vs. "The Shape of Water" barring any other film getting enough support to dethrone either of 'em.

EDIT: Have just been to see "Three Billboards..." and am kind of stunned that It's the frontrunner. Rockwell has a redemption arc and McDormand is solid enough but Martin McDonagh missed out on a Director momination though! If BAFTA goes for it over "The Shape of Water" then it's vwry likely 'game over' though.

Favourite to win Best Picture right now!? It might be the year the ship gets righted in regards the PGA predicting the corresponding Oscar winner and "The Shape of Water" pulls through but "Get Out" and "Lady Bird" are hot on it's heels...and "Three Billboards..." cannot be counted out what with the actors branch very likely voting for it. "Dunkirk" though technically in the fight can probably be only considered as a lively outsider.

Your new favourite to win Best Picture is..."The Shape of Water".

Gary Oldman is probably in most trouble with a trio of pesky vote-getters in the form of the Daniels Day-Lewis and Kaluuya as well as Timothee Chalamet as long time possible spoilers. Thanks for playing, Denzel.

Pesky Meryl Streep gets yet another nomination but she very likely won't spoil Frances McDirmand's hopes.

Sam Rockwell and Allison Janney seem good-to-go as well.

There's a slight question mark about Guillermo del Toro but if the DGA reply in kind then It's over as a contest even if Christopher Nolan broke his Oscar hoodoo. Nolan is being backed to win the BAFTA, mind you.
Last edited by stereoman on Tue Jan 23, 2018 5:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby LustForLeith » Tue Jan 23, 2018 5:48 pm

Streep got nominated! :nap:

Well done if you got the evens!

Time to start studying the form!

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby Sagand » Tue Jan 23, 2018 11:52 pm

The next event up you can bet on is Bafta. Timing is really important in these races. The voting for Bafta winners opened two days after the Golden Globes and since this has been the case (since 2012 when Bafta moved away from longlists) they have always gone for the same films, even when they didn't wins the Guilds or Oscar. (The Artist, Argo, 12 Years a Slave, Boyhood, The Revenant and La La Land all won both.) Acting categories have also always been close matches.

Shape of Water is a complete red herring for Bafta, it couldn't get their Supporting Actor in when the whole of Bafta vote for the acting nominees. Three Billboards got in two. I don't see a situation where it can win at Bafta.

I'm betting heavy on Three Billboards with some cover on Dunkirk. I'm also betting on Nolan to beat del Toro here and all four SAG/Critics Choice/Globe winners to repeat.

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby LustForLeith » Wed Jan 24, 2018 6:53 am

The next event up you can bet on is Bafta. Timing is really important in these races. The voting for Bafta winners opened two days after the Golden Globes and since this has been the case (since 2012 when Bafta moved away from longlists) they have always gone for the same films, even when they didn't wins the Guilds or Oscar. (The Artist, Argo, 12 Years a Slave, Boyhood, The Revenant and La La Land all won both.) Acting categories have also always been close matches.

Shape of Water is a complete red herring for Bafta, it couldn't get their Supporting Actor in when the whole of Bafta vote for the acting nominees. Three Billboards got in two. I don't see a situation where it can win at Bafta.

I'm betting heavy on Three Billboards with some cover on Dunkirk. I'm also betting on Nolan to beat del Toro here and all four SAG/Critics Choice/Globe winners to repeat.
Good insight!

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby LustForLeith » Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:22 pm

So when it comes to Best Animated Feature, Pixar film Coco should win.

It probably will win.

In fact the makers have probably rehearsed their speeches and already made a little space on their mantle piece for the Academy Award.

But imagine for one moment it didn’t win?

The Best Animated category has thrown up some shocks already. There’s no Despicable Me 3, no Lego Batman.

Instead there’s Boss Baby and Fernando.

It’s going to be a shock if one of those wins the bi prize. So we’re left with Coco and two others. In theory it could be a three horse race with one clear runway favourite.

Of the remaining films there’s The Breadwinner which is about a girl who lives under the Taliban rule.

What I like the look of to make a shock is Loving Vincent. It’s the first oil depicted anamited film which focuses on the life and death of Vincent Van Gogh. Originally it was shot as a live action film then converted into animation over a series of years.

It’s also directed by a woman, one of only four ever to have directed a film that’s been nominated in this category. That could have a factor.

But it doesn’t matter. Coco has the Oscar in the bag. All it needs is for the makers to turn up and collec the award.

But at this stage, when the nominations have been announced and the favourites are odds on, this is my one tip on an upset happening.

Loving Vincent - Beat Animated Feature 12/1 BWin

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Sun Feb 04, 2018 6:45 am

DGA has just gone to Guillermo del Toro and barring a backlash then it's game over. BAFTA may ,muddy the waters a little if they go for Christopher Nolan but other than that, nothing doing.

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:10 pm

The USC Scripter award, in which the winner has gone on to win the Adapted Screenplay Oscar seven times in the last seven years, was given out in the early hours of Sunday morning GMT and it was won by..."Call Me By Your Name".

The other nominees were "The Disaster Artist", "Logan", "Molly's Game", "Mudbound" (all nominated for Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars) as well as "The Lost City of Z" and "Wonder Woman" (not nominated for any Oscars).

It is the only Best Picture nominee so if you thought an upset was looming possibly by "Mudbound" or even "The Disaster Artist" then no, it will almost certainly "The Imitation Game" its way to a 'consolation' win considering it very likely won't win an Oscar anywhere else.

Huge odds on admittedly. The WGA awards are this Sunday but the BAFTAs are next Sunday.

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:44 am

WGA awards have been handed out and "Call Me By Your Name" and "Get Out" wins.

"Three Billboards.." was ineligble but this could be the fillup that "Get Out" needs to cause an almighty upset for Best Picture.

"Lady Bird" may very well be going home emptyhanded at the Oscars if "Get Out" repeats the feat!

Get on "Get Out" to win Original Screenplay before the odds collapse into odds-on!

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Fri Feb 16, 2018 12:42 am

There has according to Oddschecker been a slight move for Lesley Manville to win Supporting Actress at the Oscars (16/1 third favourite) but in order to do that then she very likely needs a BAFTA win to back that seemingly improbable feat just like Tilda Swinton did back in 2008.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/61st_Brit ... ilm_Awards

Am annoyed I didn't snap any of the very speculative 12/1 that was on offer at William Hill as she's now as low as 7/1. She is as high as 9/1 generally to win at BAFTA. Am assuming some are taking a punt that if Gary Oldman is winning then having him win alongside Lesley Manville could be 'irresistible' as a 'point of controversy'.

Allison Janney is understandably a favourite and I'm sure she has a lot of goodwill from BAFTA thanks to "THe West Wing" but I can't be betting on her at slightly prohibitve odds-on at BAFTA and am taking the speculative punt on Lesley Manville to cause an upset.

For some strange reason, even though it seems very unlikely I will be taking a small punt on Hugh Grant to win Supporting Actor. His odds are on the drift out to 33/1 but if there is a genuine backlash towards "Three Billboards..." at BAFTA then he may be the a surprising recipient. I feel even though the others are Oscar nominees that they are small enough movies that the BAFTA voting bloc as a whole hasn't seen them.

I know BAFTA wants to predict the Oscars but sometimes they don't want to. 'Home advantage' didn't give Christian Bale an edge when he surprisingly lost out to Geoffrey Rush back in 2011.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/64th_Brit ... ilm_Awards

Sam Rockwell will win at the Oscars barring a backlash but I can't see Willem Dafoe usurping him, Richard jenkins riding the wave of "The Shape of Water", Woody Harrelson winning for what is essentially a cameo or the desire to give Christopher Plummer a second Oscar after he guilted them in getting his first for "Beginners".

Other BAFTA predictions:

Best Film? It may very well lazily go to "Three Billboards..." as sagand suggested but the spectre of "Dunkirk" and "The Shape of Water" looms over it. Would have expected it to be more of a strong betting favourite though which suggets a surprise may happen in what is superficially still a very close race. Feel that "Dunkirk" could be the spoiler but it'd be a tentative but not particularly confident prediction. The weight of money according to Oddschecker is going for "The Shape of Water".
Best Director? Guillermo del Toro and Christopher Nolan neck-and-neck. del Toro may be ahead because BAFTA does in kneejerk fashion seemingly tend to follow the Golden Globes but this could be a perfect opportunity to give it to Nolan instead. Am predicting Nolan but am surprised there isn't more of a betting favourite between the two as to who is more likely to prevail...currently it is del Toro but only just.
Best Actor? Gary Oldman obviously. I don't see either of the Daniels causing an upset. Thanks for playing Jamie and Timothee.
Best Actress? Am curious by the slight amount of money going on Sally Hawkins even though she is still third favourite. Could this be a complete set of British acting winners at BAFTA this year!? Am predicting Frances McDormand to be one of the few wins for "Three Billboards..." but am not betting on her at odds-on.
Best British Film? "Three Billboards..." is odds-on but I feel "Darkest Hour" doing robust business at the box office may have somehow helped it to cause an upset here.

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Re: 2018 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Sun Feb 18, 2018 12:09 pm

Roger Deakins wins a fourth ASC award this time for "Blade Runner 2049". After Kevin O'Connell finally won last year, it probably is time that Roger Deakins follows suit in winning his first Oscar as well justifying the odds-on quotes as soon as the nominations were out.

Looking at any movements in the odds right now and it looks very ominous that BAFTA will merely follow what the Golden Globes picks with money on "Three Billboards..." to win Film (and British Film), Oldman, McDormand, Rockwell and Janney all looking set to continue their winning runs. My odds against picks, which were rather fanciful to begin with, will seemingly remain unfulfilled.

...even if "Three Billboards..." wins both Film and British Film, it might not translate to a Picture win at the Oscars.

The only mystery is seemingly Director with del Toro still only a narrow favourite over Nolan. Am surprised there isn't more of an odds-on quote to separate both of them.

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