I'm A Celebrity 2016

[Notsofastmyfriend]

Over the years I have picked the winner of I'm A Celebrity. But this year will be the first I won't be betting on it.
Reason being, I now consider it to be a dirty market. Last year I backed Vicky, despite feeling 100% certain Ferne would win; as after she followed the usual winner profile of winning the eating challenge, I thought to myself; dead cert, gets the votes for that.
But what put me off, and made me back against my instinct was the clear producers edit to favour Vicky. She was being forced down our throats in every episode narrating in the diary room type hut. I had a funny thought, I wonder if the producers have her as the chosen one, and they are testing her presenting skills with a view to taking her on. And no surprise, the chosen one is now co-presenting with Swash and Solomon.
I would like to think this is a clean market, and Vicky genuinely got more votes than Ferne. But my instinct tells me Vicky was fixed to win as the producers wanted a winner presenter; to follow the path of Swash and Solomon. Hence the edits.
So with that in mind, I can't back a dirty market. We have all seen the reality types win CBB etc. The power of the edit, makes unpopular winners such as Stephen Bear win. The producers choose the reality winner in these markets, not the public vote. The edit manipulates the vote to what they want; the end justifies the means.
If I had to pick a winner from the rumoured line ups, I would go for Scarlet Moffat. She was popular on Gogglebox, and will be popular on IAC too. She fits the winner profile from the outset. But that would be in a clean market, without producers editing to favour their chosen one. Scarlet may or may not be the chosen one, so its too much liability for too little profit margin as her current odds.
As always, one needs to watch a couple of episodes to see who is getting the favourable edit. Once one sees someone in the diary room every episode like Vicky was, the chosen one becomes apparent and its time to lump on.
Some might doubt my methodology, but often I get it right as I did with Foggy and Vicky respectively. I consider Foggy to have been a clean market, but things changed when Vicky beat Ferne as she was the most deserving winner. My opinion seems to have been a popular one, and others concur; not only gamblers.
So if you do want a tip its Scarlet Moffat, but tread with caution before lumping on. My advice is to wait a few episodes to see the producers edit is following their usual modus operandi with her.

[nors]

I think you can see manipulation in many of the reality shows where the producers favour those that will garner tabloid headlines and offer longevity in publicity terms.

The "voting" results seems questionable in many of these programmes and when i hear "shock" results i am reminded of this:

The hosts of Blue Peter have apologised to viewers on air about the rigging of a poll to name the show's cat.
The cat was named Socks after the results of an online poll were changed. Viewers of the BBC One show had wanted to call the cat Cookie.

Speaking on behalf of the programme, presenter Zoe Salmon told viewers: "We'd like to say that we're sorry.

If Blue Peter can do this then i suspect it is open season for many programme producers, as for the X Factor i fail to see why anyone would consider this still watchable.

[UnderdogsLover]

Have they got full list I'm A Celebrity 2016 out yet now?
Wow its that time again...

Anyway waiting on the line up be decide if watch regularly.

[Thambo]

Apparently Wayne Bridge will be going into the jungle...

[Notsofastmyfriend]

The line up has been leaked on Twitter. If you don't know where to look; then you really shouldn't be betting on this.
Now is the time the professionals lump on the market.
Interestingly, the bookies have left Charlotte Crosby as favourite despite her admitting it was a hoax.
That won't stop mug punters still backing her though sadly. A fool and his money are easily parted.
Of the runners, I would say Scarlett Moffat.
But after Vicky beating Ferne last year, I consider this market dirty.
I suppose one could arb the top 2 when the producers chosen one becomes apparent; as she is value at 4.0
But will quickly drop to 2.0 when in, so not value from then on.
Malcolm McLaren complained it was fixed way back in 2007, with the producers picking the winner.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/ar ... -fake.html
Ask yourself this, where do you think the money comes from to pay the celebrities fees, and produce the show?
All the phone votes, and app votes. So getting mugs to vote; when in reality the chosen one wins, means more more revenue stream.
The producers are no fools, and will pick the celebrity that most keeps the show in the media.
Vicky was the chosen one, as they had her lined up to be a co-presenter. And no surprise she won.
It was obvious to all that Ferne was the real winner after the bushtucker trial, so the producers came up with the CBB type narrative of less than 1% in the vote etc.
Honestly, it's like the IAC producers have read the SImon Cowell Book Of Dark Arts.
One can still make profit on this, but be very careful as it's a dirty market.
My gut feeling was Ferne last year, but I went against it and backed Vicky due to the edit. The chosen one was so blatant even the blind could see.
I have a funny feeling this year the chosen one will be Scarlett Moffatt.

[Wallsendlad]

According to Skybet, the 8th favourite of a very long list is only 9/1. The 2nd favourite is only 7/2. Hardly tempting odds to have a bet, so why would anyone bother?

[stereoman]

The full list of ten has been confirmed:

Jordan Banjo (Diversity)
Wayne Bridge (footballer)
Joel Dommett (Impractical Jokers UK)
Ola Jordan (Ex-Strictly Come Dancing professional)
Larry Lamb (EastEnders)
Scarlett Moffatt (Gogglebox)
Sam Quek (Olympic field hockey player)
Lisa Snowdon (Britain's Next Top Model host)
Adam Thomas (Emmerdale)
Carol Vorderman (Countdown)

http://www.digitalspy.com/tv/im-a-celeb ... t-moffatt/

[UnderdogsLover]

Wow only heard 3 out of that lot.
Wayne Bridge, Larry Lamb and Carol Vorderman..
Doubt any winner will come from that lot!!

So think this just be watching..

Was hoping Danny Baker be in it, perhaps he come in later on!!
great football show Danny did few years ago..

[garlicsauce]

looks a good line up to me, I don't think you can bet yet though as there will obviously be more going in, out of the three that went in later last year, one walked and the other two made the final.

[garlicsauce]

Coverage starts tonight at 9.00pm ITV - Thoughts and betting here - https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=411908

[stereoman]

Ante-post odds with Scarlett Moffatt a fairly biggish favourite due to the assumed feeling that 'Gogglebox' fans will propel her to a win and that ITV want her as a presenter afterwards. Prohibitive and ITV have more than enough former 'IACGMOoH' winners turned presenters in the likes of Vicki Pattinson, Stacey Solomon and Joe Swash...not sure who the producers want to win instead though.

The likes of Danny Baker and Martin Roberts being 'parachuted' in later?

[stereoman]

OT: Huh. Jake Wood's put £100 at 20/1 on his mate, Wayne Bridge to win it all.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/tvandshowbiz/2 ... h-100-bet/

Jake should've waited as Wayne's drifted out to 40/1! I think Jake's done his dough but 'out of the woodwork' winners do emerge such as Carl Fogarty, Gino d'Campo and Carol Thatcher.

Updated odds:



Money coming in on Larry Lamb (probably gets the 'he's a decent bloke' vote), Joel Dommett (is the "Impractical Jokers" fanbase that rabid!? It's a stupid enough show so there's enough idiots with cash to burn ringing to keep him in) and Jordan Banjo (is Diversity still a thing?).