2017 Oscars

LustForLeith
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2017 Oscars

Postby LustForLeith » Mon Mar 07, 2016 1:53 pm

Far, far too early. I know. But what the heck.

Here's two I like the look of.

Michael Keaton - he plays Ray Kroc in The Founder, the story of the guy who helped create McDonalds.

Keatons on first just now with two of his last films (Birdman, Spotligt) winning best Picture Oscars. He got nominated for Birdman and was unlucky not to win.

He was unlucky not to be nominated for Spotlight but this could make up for it.

10/1 to win Best Actor or Best Supporting Actor at 2017 Oscars

Adam Driver - Kylo Ren was the best thing in a brilliant Star Wars film and Driver has propelled himself into the A list.

He's appearing in a silence, the new Martin Scorsese movie. Two priests go looking for their mentor in Japan it seems like it's Academy Award baiting.

His co to start Liam Nesson has praised Driver for his performance and commitment. He's gone through a drastic weight loss (Hollywood loves that) and he's said to be immense in the role.

Adam driver to win a Best Actor or Best supporting Actor Oscar in 2017 - 12/1

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Postby stereoman » Fri Mar 11, 2016 11:40 pm

I'm assuming Paddy Power obliged with odds here.

Michael Keaton? Hmmm. I have the feeling that he'll never win. He can be part of a Best Picture winner but not be singled out for it. The "F yeah" that was easily lip read as the camera panned on him as he went onto the stage as 'Spotlight' won is churlish enough reason for AMPAS to easily forget about him.

The only thing that can propel Michael Keaton to win is an effective hype machine.

Adam Driver? In a Martin Scorsese film that isn't about gangsters? Never say never. There'll obviously be a myriad of contenders between now and Toronto/Telluride though.

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Postby stereoman » Fri Apr 22, 2016 4:21 am

Ladbrokes go 8/1 for 'Birth of a Nation' (nobody dares say a negative word about it since it wowed folks at Sundance) and a laughable 33/1 about 'The Jungle Book' (some technical nominations but it won't win any).

I would be stunned if 'Birth of a Nation' went 'wire-to-wire' and actually won Best Picture but stranger things have happened.

If they feel "Oooh...rewarding '12 Years a Slave' wasn't enough and non-white performers might have to win one of the acting awards not just be nominated" then watch out for the Denzel Washington directed 'Fences' which will apparently be released towards the end of the year.

Viola Davis could finally get an Oscar (and for Best Actress not just Supporting Actress!) and she has tremendous goodwill for 'How to Get Away with Murder' even though I don't rate that TV show at all (she won an Emmy! Who cares what I think!?)..

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Postby 93Treesa » Fri Apr 22, 2016 6:06 am

The Jungle Book may get one or two awards.The film is awesome.

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Postby LustForLeith » Sun Apr 24, 2016 7:01 pm

The Jungle Book may get one or two awards.The film is awesome.
I saw it today. It won't win the main awards but can see it being nominated for the effects - really impressive!

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Postby stereoman » Mon May 16, 2016 3:53 am

Hmmm. Some interesting thoughts at this very early stage here:
https://backtothefryingpan.wordpress.co ... y-edition/

'Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk', 'Loving', 'Birth of a Nation', 'Silence' and 'Manchester by The Sea' seem plausible for five spots in the Best Picture line-up. Fairly strong word of mouth for 'BLLHW' as well.

Am leery that Ang Lee and Denzel Washington can win their third Oscars. Ruth Negga vs. Viola Davis for Best Actress!? WHOO-WHEE!! That's an unlikely but likely face-off. Michelle Williams for Supporting Actress? Hmmm...maybe.

They've gone for Liam Neeson over Adam Driver in Supporting Actor as to who might get noticed for 'Silence'.

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Postby LustForLeith » Tue May 17, 2016 3:48 pm

I can see the appeal of Neeson. I like what he said about Driver, the fact that he’s a former Marine whose really dedicated to the role and lost a tonne of weight. That’s the sort of thing that captures the Academy’s interest. I originally did fancy Neeson but I think Driver has positioned himself at the right time.
 
The trailer for Billy Lynn’s Long Half Time Walk does appeal. Ang Lee is a great director but he reminds me a bit of Danny Boyle where it seems as if every second film is really good and does really well while every other film doesn’t. That’s no way meant as an insult to either!
 
I noticed that The Founder has had its release date brought forward to August. Michael Keaton will need to give a really strong performance if he’s to be considered a contender come nomination time but I still wouldn’t rule him out in the Best Actor category.
 â€Ž

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Postby stereoman » Sun Jul 10, 2016 11:52 pm

I think, right now, only Ladbrokes are bothering...updated odds on 'Best Picture':

Birth of a Nation 4/1
Loving 10/1
Manchester By The Sea 16/1
The Jungle Book 25/1
Absolutely Fabulous 100/1 (I'd add a few zeroes to that!)
The BFG 100/1 (nnnnoooooopppppeeee)

Meh. I'd still peg 'Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk' as the probable favourite at this too early/not that early really stage.

Vanity Fair are asking if Michael Keaton finally wins an Oscar...

http://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/201 ... he-founder

...I'm going to say "NO!!" right now but only because I don't feel AMPAS wants to reward a film about the origins of the biggest fast food joint on the planet.

BWin (*COUGH, SPIT*) have various strange odds and sods up including another, in awesomely bad taste, go at who will be the last face on the 'In Memoriam' segment. right now:

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Postby stereoman » Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:29 am

Last year BWin had odds on who'd get nominated in the acting categories...random grab bag of mostly unlikely nominees again.

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Long term nonsense about the Oscar chances of the eighth Star Wars film (not 'Rogue One').

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Postby stereoman » Sun Aug 28, 2016 2:48 am

Seems to be that the attitude towards Nate Parker might kill the chances of 'The Birth of a Nation' completely stone dead despite the almost universal praise for the film itself.

http://www.indiewire.com/2016/08/the-bi ... 201719876/

I'm not so sure but Nate Parker most likely won't feature in Director or Actor now.

The top ten and fives in various categories over at Awards Circuit/GoldDerby before Toronto, Telluride and all the other film festivals and critics awards...

Best Picture ~

1. “Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walkâ€￾ (Sony Pictures)
2. “Fencesâ€￾ (Paramount Pictures)
3. “Lovingâ€￾ (Focus Features)
4. “La La Landâ€￾ (Summit Entertainment)
5. “Manchester by the Seaâ€￾ (Roadside Attractions)
6. “Moonlightâ€￾ (A24)
7. “The Birth of a Nationâ€￾ (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
8. “Lionâ€￾ (The Weinstein Company)
9. “Arrivalâ€￾ (Paramount Pictures)
10. “Hidden Figuresâ€￾ (20th Century Fox)

http://www.awardscircuit.com/oscar-pred ... n-picture/

Folks at GoldDerby are much more keen on the chances of 'La La Land' though as it's their favourite.

Best Director ~

1. Ang Lee – “Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walkâ€￾
2. Jeff Nichols – “Lovingâ€￾
3. Denzel Washington – “Fencesâ€￾
4. Damien Chazelle – “La La Landâ€￾
5. Kenneth Lonergan – “Manchester by the Seaâ€￾

http://www.awardscircuit.com/oscar-pred ... -director/

If they want to ignore Nate Parker, they can conveniently embrace Denzel Washington instead then and stop some sniping that they're racist.

Ang Lee may be in the slightly intriguing position of winning three 'Best Director' Oscars but NEVER having actually directed the one that ends up winning 'Best Picture'!

Best Actor ~

1. Michael Keaton – “The Founderâ€￾
2. Denzel Washington – “Fencesâ€￾
3. Casey Affleck – “Manchester by the Seaâ€￾
4. Joel Edgerton – “Lovingâ€￾
5. Jake Gyllenhaal – “Nocturnal Animalsâ€￾

http://www.awardscircuit.com/oscar-pred ... est-actor/

The top three seem interchangeable with GoldDerby having Denzel Washington as their favourite ahead of Casey Affleck and then Michael Keaton.

I still can't believe unless 'The Founder' is met with universal praise that a film about McDonald's is going to get Michael Keaton a 'Best Actor' Oscar.

Best Actress ~

1. Viola Davis – “Fencesâ€￾
2. Annette Bening – “20th Century Womenâ€￾
3. Emma Stone – “La La Landâ€￾
4. Ruth Negga – “Lovingâ€￾
5. Meryl Streep – “Florence Foster Jenkinsâ€￾

http://www.awardscircuit.com/oscar-pred ... t-actress/

It seems to be that Viola may gain some 'revenge' on Meryl if the support for Ms. Davis can match the hype. She certainly gets a lot of goodwill if she can win an Emmy for schlock like 'How to Get Away with Murder'.

GoldDerby also have Viola as the favourite ahead of Ruth, Emma, Meryl and then Annette in that order.

Best Supporting Actor ~

1. Liam Neeson – “Silenceâ€￾
2. Steve Martin – “Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walkâ€￾
3. Hugh Grant – “Florence Foster Jenkinsâ€￾
4. Aaron Eckhart – “Sullyâ€￾
5. Mahershala Ali – “Moonlightâ€￾

http://www.awardscircuit.com/oscar-pred ... ing-actor/

The big man may finally get his due if 'Silence' doesn't get um, silenced by AMPAS/the critics. I can't see Steve Martin or Hugh Grant winning but folks over at GoldDerby can as they have Steve as their favourite ahead of Mahershala (this year's potentially 'out of nowhere' non-white nominee) and Hugh.

GD have Armie Hammer ('The Birth of a Nation') and Lucas Hedges ('Manchester by the Sea') ahead of Liam Neeson and Aaron Eckhart.

Best Supporting Actress ~

1. Michelle Williams – “Manchester by the Seaâ€￾
2. Naomie Harris – “Moonlight
3. Greta Gerwig – “20th Century Womenâ€￾
4. Kristen Stewart – “Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walkâ€￾
5. Elle Fanning – “20th Century Womenâ€￾

http://www.awardscircuit.com/oscar-pred ... g-actress/

GoldDerby also have Michelle as their favourite right now ahead of Kristen and then Naomie. They have Aja Naomi King ('The Birth of a Nation') and the other Fanning sister, Dakota ('American Pastoral') as more likely than Greta or Elle to round out the final five.

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Postby stereoman » Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:45 pm

'La La Land' currently wowing them in Telluride right now. The contest is far from over but an original cinematic musical that's good is hard to come by these days...it may be absolute catnip for AMPAS.

What price are you offering, Ladbrokes? 4/1!? It'll be snapped up quicker than a paparazzo stalking ingenues on a red carpet for a front page photo.

EDIT: I honestly didn't look at Ladbrokes before I posted but yep, it's 4/1.

The full list of 'Best Picture' at Ladbrokes...

Birth Of A Nation 3/1
Manchester By The Sea 4/1
La La Land 4/1
Loving 5/1
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk 6/1
Fences 7/1
Lion 14/1
20th Century Women 16/1
Moonlight 20/1
Arrival 25/1
Snowden 33/1
American Pastoral 33/1
A Monster Calls 50/1
Allied 50/1
The Girl on the Train 50/1
The Jungle Book 66/1
The Lobster 80/1
Passengers 80/1
Denial 80/1
The BFG 100/1
Hell or High Water 100/1
Hidden Figures 100/1
Toni Erdmann 100/1
The Founder 100/1
Miss Sloane 100/1
Nocturnal Animals 100/1
Gold 100/1
Collateral Beauty 100/1
Zootopia 125/1
American Honey 125/1
Elle 125/1
Rules Don't Apply 125/1
Love and Friendship 125/1
Eye on the Sky 125/1
Absolutely Fabulous 200/1
David Brent: Life On The Road 200/1

...whilst William Hill also have a go...

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Postby LustForLeith » Sat Sep 10, 2016 3:24 pm

sorry posted Glasto info in this thread!

Been a long day!

Sticking with Michael Keaton for Best Actor. Unsure about Best Film just now. Silence could be in with a shout but it may get pushed back a year. Which would scupper my Adam Driver bet!

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