2017 Oscars

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Re: 2017 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Sun Feb 26, 2017 10:29 pm

BEST ACTRESS ~
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How much do you want to believe that Isabelle Huppert is the one to derail the apparent Emma Stone cold certainty here? A bit of nibbling here and there. I think you're wasting your money backing Natalie Portman as she ain't turning up as she's pregnant...I highly doubt she 'Butterfield 8s' (Elizabeth Taylor had an apparent sympathy vote for having a tracheotomy due to pneumonia and couldn't attend beating out the likes of Shirley Maclaine in 'The Apartment') her way to an absentee win.

I think the Isabelle Huppert gamble is merely 'hopedicting' and that Emma Stone isn't that divisive despite 'Aloha' and the apparent and slightly cheekily vindictive narrative of her being a 'white saviour' in both 'The Help' and now 'La La Land'.

USELESS STATISTIC: The Best Actress winner hasn't been in a Best Picture winner since Hilary Swank in 'Million Dollar Baby'.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Academy_A ... st_Actress

VARIETY PICKS: Emma Stone - 'La La Land'.
AWARDS CIRCUIT PICKS: Emma Stone - 'La La Land'
STEREOMAN PICKS: Emma Stone - 'La La Land'

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Re: 2017 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Sun Feb 26, 2017 10:46 pm

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR ~
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Oddschecker are crowing that they got Dev Patel at 22/1. Meh. It still has to win to count. I think despite the knockback at BAFTA and Dev winning, the SAG win is more significant and that Mahershala Ali should just about fend off Dev Patel. If Dev wins, there's a delicious narrative that it isn't just a black and white world...Dev is of course, the lead in his movie and has the most time on screen of all five nominees here and could easily win in a bout of 'category fraud'.

If the hype for 'Moonlight' to win Best Picture is in any way real then why would Mahershala Ali be left out? Some murmurings of Michael Shannon causing an almighty upset here but I highly doubt it.

VARIETY PICKS: Mahershala Ali - 'Moonlight'.
AWARDS CIRCUIT PICKS: Mahershala Ali - 'Moonlight'.
STEREOMAN PICKS: Mahershala Ali - 'Moonlight'.

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Re: 2017 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Sun Feb 26, 2017 10:59 pm

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS ~
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It's Viola Davis...NEXT!

Oh...you want some meat on those bones!? Well...I don't quite understand the slight gamble on Naomie Harris but she does have her supporters as did Michelle Williams, who appears to be the next unluckiest person during awards season not named Amy Adams. I'd be slightly stunned and appalled if Viola Davis loses but I suppose the PC brigade can take some solace if it is Naomie Harris unexpectedl winning.

VARIETY PICKS: Viola Davis - 'Fences'
AWARDS CIRCUIT PICKS: Viola Davis - 'Fences'
STEREOMAN PICKS: Viola Davis - 'Fences'

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Re: 2017 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Sun Feb 26, 2017 11:13 pm

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY ~

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WGA went to 'Moonlight' so that doesn't help. BAFTA went for 'Manchester by the Sea' but it's not the best indicator. I am banking on writers supporting the 'most writery writer' of the five and that's arguably Kenneth Lonergan. 'La La Land' could sweep but musicals generally don't win for their screenplays...I've forgotten the relevant statistic about that one.

Am slightly bemused by a slight gamble on 'Hell or High Water' but hey, it's a fairly open category.

VARIETY PICKS: Damien Chazelle - 'La La Land'
AWARDS CIRCUIT PICKS: Damien Chazelle - 'La La Land'
STEREOMAN PICKS: Kenneth Lonergan - 'Manchester by the Sea'

http://www.awardscircuit.com/oscar-pred ... creenplay/

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Re: 2017 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Sun Feb 26, 2017 11:31 pm

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY ~
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'Arrival' won the WGA for Adapted Screenplay but 'Moonlight' won in Original Screenplay so it may just go to prove how strong the support for 'Moonlight' really is. BAFTA went for 'Lion' though but how much is 'Uncle' Harvey Weinstein's legendary powers of persuasion and schmoozing going to help this time if at all? Not this time. 'Moonlight' gets the win and 'nobody' complains. I'd raise an eyebrow at 'Lion' triumphing here and if 'Arrival' won instead then I'd just shrug my shoulders.

VARIETY PICKS: Barry Jenkins, Tarell McCraney - 'Moonlight'
AWARDS CIRCUIT PICKS: Barry Jenkins, Tarell McCraney - 'Moonlight'
STEREOMAN PICKS: Barry Jenkins, Tarell McCraney - 'Moonlight'

http://www.awardscircuit.com/oscar-pred ... creenplay/

SkyBet have a bunch of 'Request a Bets' avilable up until midnight.

Image

I will go for 'La La Land' winning nine or less Oscars at 10/11. Some of the odds on a lot of things happening is more than a bit stingy.

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Re: 2017 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Sun Feb 26, 2017 11:44 pm

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM ~
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Boringly I think this goes to 'Zootopia' despite the curveball that BAFTA threw that was 'Kubo and the Two Strings'. The Annie awards aren't the most reliable indicator (10 out of the last 15 winners though!) but 'Zootopia' winning big over there is usually a good sign of things to come.

'Moana' has an original Song nomination? 'Kubo...' has a Visual Effects nomination? Nah...it probably can't derail the timely moral message of 'tolerance' that is in 'Zootopia'. 'Moana' supporters will spin how difficult it was to depict Maori culture. 'Kubo...' supporters will go for the art (the water!) but 'Zootopia' will likely just about prevail.

VARIETY PICKS: 'Zootopia'
AWARDS CIRCUIT PICKS: 'Zootopia'
STEREOMAN PICKS: 'Zootopia'

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Re: 2017 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Sun Feb 26, 2017 11:57 pm

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN ~
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The Art Directors Guild went all over the place as 'La La Land' (Contemporary), 'Hidden Figures' (Period) and 'Passengers' (Fantasy) all won. 'Fantastic Beasts...' won the BAFTA but there's been nibbles of money on 'Arrival' instead.

I'm lazily taking a chance on 'Fantastic Beasts...' even if AMPAS are very sniffy of JK Rowling films.

VARIETY PICKS: 'La La Land'
AWARDS CIRCUIT PICKS: 'La La Land'
STEREOMAN PICKS: 'Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them'

http://www.awardscircuit.com/oscar-pred ... on-design/

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Re: 2017 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Mon Feb 27, 2017 12:05 am

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY ~
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'La La Land' won BAFTA. 'Lion' won the ASC award. Am going with the ASC winner just for the giggles.

VARIETY PICKS: 'La La Land'
AWARDS CIRCUIT PICKS: 'La La Land'
STEREOMAN PICKS: 'Lion'

http://www.awardscircuit.com/oscar-pred ... atography/

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Re: 2017 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Mon Feb 27, 2017 12:17 am

BEST COSTUME DESIGN ~
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'Jackie' won he BAFTA and it oddly has been a good omen to win the Oscar. Costume Designers Guild awards went for 'La La Land' (Contemporary), 'Hidden Figures (Period) and 'Doctor Strange' (Fantasy). I'm not getting the reason behind the late money on 'Fantastic Beasts...' even if the legendary Colleen Atwood is behind them. Mary Zophres of 'La La Land' is very well respected and is probably due a win but I'm backing the BAFTA winning streak to continue with Madeleine Fontaine prevailing for 'Jackie'.

VARIETY PICKS: 'Jackie'
AWARDS CIRCUIT PICKS: 'Jackie'
STEREOMAN PICKS: 'Jackie'

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Re: 2017 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Mon Feb 27, 2017 12:25 am

BEST FILM EDITING ~
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ACE went for 'Arrival' (Drama) and 'La La Land' (Comedy/Musical). BAFTA went for 'Hacksaw Ridge' so that explains some late money for it. Interesting that the Best Picture winner to win this was 'Argo' and at the odds, I'll take the BAFTA winner.

VARIETY PICKS: 'La La Land'
AWARDS CIRCUIT PICKS: 'La La Land'
STEREOMAN PICKS: 'Hacksaw Ridge'

http://www.awardscircuit.com/oscar-pred ... m-editing/

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Re: 2017 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Mon Feb 27, 2017 12:42 am

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM ~
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A fairly huge consensus move as 'The Salesman' gets all the attention as its director Asghar Farhadi is barred from entering the US or boycotting the scars because of Donald Trump''s travel ban (take your pick). AMPAS have invited two Iranian-Americans in the form of Anousheh Ansari & NASA's Firouz Naderi who will accept if 'The Salesman' wins.

I have to agree with the late money. Ordinarily, I'd go with the war film which is in this case, 'Land of Mine' but I think the Oscars go political here even though the film really isn't by going for 'The Salesman'.

VARIETY PICKS: 'A Man Called Ove'
AWARDS CIRCUIT PICKS: 'The Salesman'
STEREOMAN PICKS: 'The Salesman'

http://www.awardscircuit.com/oscar-pred ... uage-film/

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Re: 2017 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Mon Feb 27, 2017 12:55 am

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING ~
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Warner Brothers have no horse to root for this year generally as they have no Best Picture nominee so I wouldn't be surprised if they spent their efforts getting an unlikely Oscar win in this category no matter how undeserved it may be thought of. 'Star Trek Beyond' is the more 'sensible' choice though. I believe the Swedish team goes home empty-handed again.

VARIETY PICKS: Star Trek Beyond'
AWARDS CIRCUIT PICKS: 'Star Trek Beyond'
STEREOMAN PICKS: 'Suicide Squad'

http://www.awardscircuit.com/oscar-pred ... irstyling/

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