2017 Oscars

stereoman
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Re: 2017 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Mon Jan 09, 2017 4:18 am

Would have done a Golden Globes betting preview but it'd have been a waste of time as I wouldn't have predicted Isabelle Huppert upsetting Natalie Portman in 'Lead Actress - Drama' (I picked Amy Adams!), Aaron Taylor-Johnson upsetting Mahershala Ali in 'Supporting Actor' (20/1+!) or "La La Land" winning all seven that it was up for.

Everything else seems locked and loaded...

Your prizefight for 'Best Picture' now appears to be "La La Land" vs. "Moonlight".
Over in 'Best Actress' it probably is Isabelle Huppert (cleaning house with critics awards!) vs. Emma Stone now with support for Natalie Portman fading.
Actor is Casey Affleck and Supporting Actress is Viola Davis almost definitely.
Supporting Actor is probably still Mahershala Ali despite the shock loss at the Golden Globes. Paddy Power react by going Mahershala Ali 1/2 and Aaron Taylor-Johnson 6/5 (!?)...there's a fairly big chance that 'Kick-Ass' won't be nominated for an Oscar even if he gets a corresponding BAFTA nomination though!

BAFTA and PGA nominations are on Tuesday.

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Re: 2017 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Tue Jan 10, 2017 8:56 am

No "Silence" at the BAFTAs but most of those expecting to get Oscar nominations are there. Boringly the likely winners at BAFTA are also likely going to double up at the Oscars.

Far too much love for "Nocturnal Animals" at BAFTA.

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Re: 2017 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Tue Jan 10, 2017 6:02 pm

PGA nominations:

Arrival
Deadpool
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

I can't see "Deadpool" being nominated for 'Best Picture' at the Oscars but every other nominee there seems good to go.

"La La Land" gets some momentum thanks to BAFTA but "Moonlight" lurks as the opposition ahead of "Manchester by the Sea" still it seems.

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Re: 2017 Oscars

Postby LustForLeith » Wed Jan 11, 2017 9:10 pm

I really want Deadpool to be nominated at the Oscars!

Watch out for Aaron Taylor Johnson. If he does well at the he Baftas expect his odds to tumble but I reckon Marhelshara Ali will win.

Best actress could still be Emma Stone. Isabella Humpert is getting a lot of praise but I fancy Stone to nick it.

In relation to odds, bookies have stopped releasing prices too soon it seems. This later its left the more is known and this shorter the odds!

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Re: 2017 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Thu Jan 12, 2017 7:08 pm

Was complaining about how there wasn't any odds back in mid-November then William Hill immediately obliged ("Hello, William Hill odds compilers!") but I didn't bother to put them up. Meh.

DGA nominations are out...

* Damien Chazelle 'La La Land'
* Garth Davis 'Lion'
* Barry Jenkins 'Moonlight'
* Kenneth Lonergan 'Manchester by the Sea'
* Denis Villeneuve 'Arrival'

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Re: 2017 Oscars

Postby LustForLeith » Thu Jan 12, 2017 10:05 pm

Was complaining about how there wasn't any odds back in mid-November then William Hill immediately obliged ("Hello, William Hill odds compilers!") but I didn't bother to put them up. Meh.

DGA nominations are out...

* Damien Chazelle 'La La Land'
* Garth Davis 'Lion'
* Barry Jenkins 'Moonlight'
* Kenneth Lonergan 'Manchester by the Sea'
* Denis Villeneuve 'Arrival'
Do odds compilers read this?! Genuine question, always wondered!

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Re: 2017 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Sat Jan 21, 2017 4:33 am

Unless they make themselves known (I remember someone from Ladbrokes lurking on the Digital Spy forums for the Mercury Prize) then we'll never know.

Ladbrokes and William Hill have priced up some specials in regards 'La La Land' and the number of nominations and wins. Nobody else seems to have...

ImageImage

Let's have a quick look at what it is eligible for:

* Best Picture
* Best Director (Damien Chazelle)
* Best Actor (Ryan Gosling)
* Best Actress (Emma Stone)
* Best Original Screenplay (Damien Chazelle)
* Best Editing (Tom Cross)
* Best Cinematography (Linus Sandgren)
* Best Costume Design (Mary Zophres)
* Best Production Design (David Wasco & Sandy Reynolds-Wasco)
* Best Original Score (Justin Hurwitz)
* Best Original Song - "Audition (The Fools That Dream)", "City of Stars" and "Start a Fire" (maximum of two nominees per film)
* Best Sound Editing (Ai-Ling Lee & Mildred Iatrou Morgan)
* Best Sound Mixing (Andy Nelson, Ai-Ling Lee, Steve A. Morrow)

A maximum of 14 possible nominations as it cannot be nominated in Makeup and Hairstyling or Visual Effects. Can it tie 'All About Eve' and 'Titanic' with the most number of Oscar nominations!? It will hinge on Sound Editing which favours the 'loud' action movies not the ones that have 'music' which tend to get recognized over in Sound Mixing.

http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/en ... story.html

It's almost absolutely nailed on to get at least eleven nominations but you may get antsy betting on a 2/7 shot and waiting until Tuesday afternoon to know your fate. The 5/1 dangled by Ladbrokes for it get 14 is kind of tempting but it's that pesky Sound Editing nomination which makes it very unlikely. The 20/1 for it get more than 14 nominations is insulting considering it is impossible.

How many Oscars can 'La La Land' win!? I think Actor is out of the question and that Costume Design, Original Screenplay and Production Design are at best iffy but the other categories seem very getable and that it has a maximum chance of getting eight Oscars from 13 nominations so the 5/1 offered by Ladbrokes for it get exactly eight wins isn't the worst bet in the world in my opinion. It will likely win Picture, Director and Actress but 11/8 is skinny.

Paddy Power seems game to have a go at the guild awards and not just the SAG awards like last year. Will have commentary and predictions for those later.

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Re: 2017 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Tue Jan 24, 2017 1:47 pm

'La La Land' did get that Sound Editing nomination and got to 14! Damn it! 5/1!

...and no Aaron Taylor-Johnson but there is Michael Shannon.

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Re: 2017 Oscars

Postby kenenek » Sun Jan 29, 2017 10:16 am

Mby The Birth of Nation

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Re: 2017 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Sun Jan 29, 2017 5:05 pm

So anyway...

The Producers Guild of America awards were given overnight and the winners were:

* La La Land (Feature FIlm)
* O.J.: Made in America (Documentary Feature)
* Zootopia (Animated Feature)

I don't think it's a 'done deal' for 'Zootopia' considering that 'Kubo and the Two Strings' has a Visual Effects nomination and 'Moana' has an Original Song nomination but 'Zootopia' should still win.

Tonight is the Screen Actors Guild awards. Paddy Power have odds up until midnight.

Best Actor:

Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea 1/5
Denzel Washington - Fences 10/3
Ryan Gosling - La La Land 11/1
Andrew Garfield - Hacksaw Ridge 20/1
Viggo Mortensen - Captain Fantastic 25/1

Best Actress:

Emma Stone - La La Land 3/10
Natalie Portman - Jackie 2/1
Amy Adams - Arrival 14/1
Meryl Streep - Florence Foster Jenkins 16/1
Emily Blunt - The Girl on the Train 20/1

Best Supporting Actress:

Viola Davis - Fences 1/8
Michelle Williams - Manchester by the Sea 15/2
Nicole Kidman - Lion 11/1
Naomie Harris - Moonlight 11/1
Octavia Spencer - Hidden Figures 14/1

Best Film Ensemble:

Moonlight 4/5
Manchester by the Sea 16/5
Hidden Figures 4/1
Fences 11/2
Captain Fantastic 20/1

Best Stunt Ensemble:

Hacksaw Ridge 1/4
Captain America: Civil War 11/2
Jason Bourne 11/2
Nocturnal Animals 12/1
Doctor Strange 12/1

Am surprised 'Moonlight' is at such a backable price for it to win Film Ensemble but the odds of 'Hidden Figures' has collapsed form 14/1 to 4/1 to cause an upset...I don't think it'll happen but we'll have to see. Should have seen the odds on 'Hacksaw Ridge' plummeting as it's the only one nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars, and they might go for 'prestige' instead of 'action flicks'.

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Re: 2017 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Mon Jan 30, 2017 3:20 am

The SAG winners were Denzel Washington (SURPRISE!!), Emma Stone, Mahershala Ali, Viola Davis, 'Hidden Figures' (justifying the crash in the odds!) and 'Hacksaw Ridge'.

Well, well, well...Denzel's odds are going to be slashed to win Best Actor now even if he can't win a BAFTA. WIll he win!? Well...maybe that backlash against Casey Affleck is real after all.

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Re: 2017 Oscars

Postby stereoman » Fri Feb 03, 2017 1:52 am

Ladbrokes finally have odds for every category but oooh, if you didn't get on early then the value on the likeliest winners has gone.

Best Picture ~
La La Land 1/6, Moonlight 7/1, Hidden Figures 14/1, Manchester by the Sea 20/1,
Lion 66/1, Hacksaw Ridge 66/1, Hell or High Water 100/1, Fences 100/1, Arrival 100/1

The question is...can anything upset 'La La Land'? Superficially probably not. It was as high as 9/2 just before Toronto back in September/October and the price collapsed as soon as it won the Audience award. Will those opposing it go for 'Moonlight' or 'Hidden Figures' instead? Well...if the SAG awards are anything to go by then 'Hidden Figures' could be the surprise. If Ryan Gosling had won instead of Denzel Washington, I'd have declared it all over as a contest.

'Moonlight' likely needed the SAG Film Ensemble win as 'Hidden Figures' comes stealing some of it's momentum, and 'La La Land' looks ominous though.

Best Director ~
Damien Chazelle (La La Land) 1/7
Barry Jenkins (Moonlight) 6/1
Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea) 10/1
Denis Villeneuve (Arrival) 33/1
Mel Gibson( Hacksaw Ridge) 33/1

The DGA awards are on Saturday and if it doesn't go to Damien Chazelle then would be a surprise. Mel Gibson can be counted out almost instantly as no director not nominated at the DGAs has ever gone on to win an Oscar.

If Barry, Denis or Kenneth spring a surprise that would be a shocker. Damien all the way and to make history as the youngest ever winner (31 YEARS OLD!!) until further notice.

Best Actor ~
Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) 4/7
Denzel Washington (Fences) 11/8
Ryan Gosling (La La Land) 12/1
Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge) 40/1
Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic) 80/1

We have one of the few races left. Does the SAG win for Denzel Washington actually mean anything? Was it a "Oh...alright then! I'm surprised you haven't won one before!" recognition or did they genuinely like him over Casey Affleck, the perceived frontrunner?

BAFTA will be interesting. If Casey wins, nothing has changed much as it still is a two horse race between Casey and Denzel. If Andrew or Ryan wins then there's another curveball and if Jake or Viggo wins then...blimey!

Denzel was second favourite at around 4/1 before the SAG win but it's collapsed into 2/1 or less. I'd rather be on Denzel than Casey at the odds. Some seem insistent that Casey shouldn't win.

Best Actress ~
Emma Stone (La La Land) 1/5
Natalie Portman (Jackie) 4/1
Isabelle Huppert (Elle) 10/1
Ruth Negga (Loving) 40/1
Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins) 40/1

If anyone has any doubts about Emma Stone then it's died down a little but the unknown factor here is Isabelle Huppert and to an extent, Ruth Negga. We don't know how they will eat into everyone else's votes. Is there an appetite to give Natalie Portman a second Oscar. I don't think so. The Golden Globes are a joke award but she lost a lot of momentum and even more so when she lost the SAG award to Emma Stone.

Emma Stone should win the BAFTA then it's probably game over.

Twenty more categories to go...

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