Strictly Come Dancing 2015

stereoman
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Postby stereoman » Tue Oct 13, 2015 6:15 pm

Hmmm. Someone has made a last minute bet on Marlon James that has made bet365 move his odds into 9/2 before they closed the betting at 7pm. BetVictor still has odds up but I would be surprised if anyone could get more than 10p on a bet there..

BBC Radio Four on Front Row right now are focusing in on...Marlon James.

If he wins then well done. The signs were there but I did not see them. Coincidences? We will have to see. The ceremony is on at 9:30pm on the BBC News channel.

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Postby Omniscient » Tue Oct 13, 2015 6:47 pm

I saw that myself.
Insider money? One would have to see the amount to confirm.
It's odd to see money lumped on so close to market suspension.
I wonder if someone knows..
Only a small amount was matched on James on Betfair's exchange, so I think it could just be coincidence.
I am not going to watch it, just check the Twitter page at 9.30pm onwards.
Last edited by Omniscient on Tue Oct 13, 2015 6:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby garlicsauce » Tue Oct 13, 2015 6:49 pm

Elimination Betting -

Carol Kirkwood 4
Kirsty Gallacher 4
Ainsley Harriott 5
Jamelia 6.5
Jeremy Vine 7.5
Daniel ODonnell 9.5
Georgia May Foote 34
Anita Rani 41
Katie Derham 41
Kellie Bright 41
Helen George 67
Peter Andre 101
Jay McGuiness 201
with bet365

This week it's 80's week, check out the blog here for dances and songs http://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=409873

It's a tough one to call for me this week and it will be a real test of the top six above fan clubs. They will all need to come out in force and vote for their favourites. I have to admit, I'm undecided so far and will wait until I see the training footage.

Who do you think with be eliminated this week?

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Postby Omniscient » Tue Oct 13, 2015 6:59 pm

Carol v Ainsley/Kirsty depending on their respective performances and scores.
In any case, Carol goes this week.
I am surprised she has lasted this long as it is.
Kirsty can't dance, and isn't likeable, with no following.
Ainsley can't dance but is likeable, with a following.
Carol can't dance, but is likeable, with no following.
But when it comes to Carol v Kirsty, Kirsty wins the dance off, same with Ainsley.
Daniel, American smooth, Sinatra; perfect for him.
I expect his highest ever score this week and a price crash on him as a result.
20-25 will keep him position 8 on the leaderboard anyway.
Odds of 30-40 next week for him, very nice. As bad as he is, his ballroom is light years ahead of Kirsty and Ainsley etc. He is safe for 3-4 weeks, same as Jeremy.
Peter, Tango, Blue Monday; terrible combination. I expect low scores for him as a result.

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Postby Omniscient » Tue Oct 13, 2015 8:51 pm

Unlucky stereoman.
So Jones won. A surprise for me.
Maybe insider money did know before 7.00pm?
Strange that the odds shortened wasn't it?
Congratulations to anyone that was on him.
I couldn't see him winning myself.

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Postby stereoman » Tue Oct 13, 2015 9:01 pm

Am annoyed that going through my posts that I didn't even think of putting a saver bet on him really.

The jury do have a habit of sticking two fingers up on the perceived gamble/s and for the first time in quite a while, they did just that since arguably 2008.

John Wilson on this evening's 'Front Row' asking James Daunt (the head of Waterstones) if he had a bet on. He said "Marlon James". *COUGH, RAISES EYEBROW*

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Postby Omniscient » Tue Oct 13, 2015 9:12 pm

I am annoyed myself I didn't have cover on Jones too, in fact all of them!
It's been a heavy loss for me to be honest with you.
I think I would be less annoyed if the favourite won!
Maybe Daunt was the BetVictor 7.00pm man...

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Postby garlicsauce » Thu Oct 15, 2015 4:08 pm

I've plumped for the favourite Carol this week. Training footage doesn't look that good, her back isn't strong enough for the posturing needed. It will be interesting if both Carol and Kirsty are in the dance off as there will be plenty of comparison as they both atempt the Paso. We will also start to see how much support the 'lesser dancers' have.

Who have you bet on?

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Postby stereoman » Sat Oct 17, 2015 1:16 am

It's a curious thing in contrast to last year where most BBC employees were getting eliminated early that this year they might survive surprisingly long.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strictly_ ... .282014.29

Kirsty's favourite to be gone!? Wealdstone Raider says "You've got no fans!".

Would not surprise me in the slightest that we effectively get a Sky Sports vs. ITV showdown this week between Kirsty and Jamelia.

Carol is not a good dancer and surely would lose to anybody else in a dance-off. Ainsley should get the proverbial 'dead cat bounce' and survive. Will be surprised if a third bloke is eliminated in a row...it's never happened!

In-running might be telling. Compare, contrast and watch your step. Me? No firm opinion.

Image

Outright odds:
Image

Top Man odds:
Image

Top Woman odds:
Image

William Hill offer...

Outright without Jay McGuiness:

Peter Andre 7/4
Katie Derham 3/1
Helen George 7/2
Anita Rani 6/1
Georgia May Foote 7/1
Kellie Bright 8/1
Daniel O' Donnell 20/1
Jamelia 50/1
Jeremy Vine 50/1
Kirsty Gallacher 50/1
Ainsley Harriott 66/1
Carol Kirkwood 66/1

Jay McGuiness vs The Field:

Jay McGuiness EVS
The Field 8/11

Top 3 Finish:

Jay McGuiness 2/9
Peter Andre 8/11
Katie Derham 11/8
Helen George 13/8
Anita Rani 5/2
Georgia May Foote 5/2
Kellie Bright 3/1
Daniel O' Donnell 10/1
Jamelia 12/1
Jeremy Vine 12/1
Kirsty Gallacher 12/1
Ainsley Harriott 16/1
Carol Kirkwood 20/1

Series Match Bets: (to last longer)

* Kirsty Gallacher 5/6 vs. Jamelia 5/6
* Helen George 4/7 vs. Georgia May Foote 5/4
* Katie Derham 4/9 vs. Kellie Bright 13/8
* Peter Andre 2/1 vs. Jay McGuiness 4/11

Image

Jay McGuiness Week 4 Points

Under 35.5 Points 8/11
Over 35.5 Points EVS

Jay McGuiness to receive a '10' this week

Yes 7/4
No 2/5

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Postby stereoman » Sat Oct 17, 2015 5:18 pm

Kirsty blue ATB and a best price 7/4 (Carol a general 7/2, Jamelia mostly 5s, Ainsley 4/1+ with Betway skinniest there) so it looks like the proverbial knives are out. Am thinking the 8/1 for her to get the lowest score at William Hill could be 'value'.

Had a look at the previous two weeks and Carol is a worse dancer but it's never about that. If it's Carol vs. Kirsty then surely Carol goes!?

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Postby stereoman » Sat Oct 17, 2015 6:52 pm

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strictly_ ... %29#Week_4

Selected scores: Kirsty 21. Jeremy 20, Jay 25, Carol 22 and Ainsley 26.

Kirsty into odds-on to be gone tonight.

William Hill in-running:

Kirsty 8/11
Carol 4/1
Ainsley 7/1
Jeremy 10/1
Daniel 12/1
Jamelia 14/1
50/1 bar

EDIT: Katie gets arguably the loudest cheer of the night (a sign of things to come that she's meant to win!?) and is this week's highest scorer with 33 doing a Viennese Waltz.

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Postby garlicsauce » Sat Oct 17, 2015 8:38 pm

The song that Kirsty and Brendan got never really suited the Paso and it was hard for them to get the proper dance going! Felt sorry for them and I hope many more do aswell. They deserve another week on that alone.

No getting away from it they were the worst on the night, but will the public come out in sympathy?

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