Strictly Come Dancing 2015

stereoman
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1174
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2005 12:00 am

Strictly Come Dancing 2015

Postby stereoman » Thu Jul 23, 2015 12:21 am

http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/tv/s104/str ... Igr6lz37BK

Odds on 'to appear as a contestant' from William Hill:

Image

Carol Kirkwood and Jamelia are a given judging by the odds. I have no idea how good of a dancer Jamelia is but few female pop stars do well...the only one that has won was Alesha Dixon.

I think they're lacking a few 'big names' so the likes of Peter Andre and um, Shane Richie seem appropriate. That's the state of the game, these days.

Georgia May Foote is gorgeous but I don't know if she can dance.

Outright ante-post odds from Paddy Power:

Image

stereoman
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1174
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2005 12:00 am

Postby stereoman » Thu Aug 06, 2015 10:27 pm

Stan James have an interesting-ish market for 'those in the know':

Who will be the 'Winning Professional'? 20 Aug 00:00

Others on request. Market will be considered closed once partners are known.

Gleb Savchenko 7/1
Ola Jordan 9/1
Pasha Kovalev 10/1
Kristina Rihanoff 10/1
Janette Manrara 10/1
Kevin Clifton 12/1
Giovanni Pernice 12/1
Anton Du Beke 12/1
Tristan Macmanus 12/1
Aliona Vilani 12/1
Aljaž Skorjanec 12/1
Natalie Lowe 12/1
Joanne Clifton 14/1
Brendan Cole 14/1
Karen Clifton 14/1
Otlile Mabuse 16/1

I wouldn't know who most of 'em were even if you waved a bunch of £50 notes as an incentive for actually doing so...seven at a push (Anton, Brendan, Kevin, Kristina, Natalie, Ola and Pasha).

Chances are that someone I don't know (aka 'not the seven I just listed') partners the winning celebrity? I'd say 86%.

Interesting statistic: No pro dancer has won it more than once.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strictly_ ... r_partners

I get the odd feeling that a male celebrity will win it as there's never been a streak of three or more of either gender winning but of course, it can depend on the quality of celebrity.

The likes of Peter Andre and Joe McElderry will make it surprisingly competitive.

Kirsty Gallacher 'all but confirmed'? She is a competitive gal. I think she likely will do a 'Gabby Logan' by being a bit too fierce...and oh, she works for Sky so *CHOP, CHOP*. If you are part of 'the competition' and in any way pretty, you will be axed surprisingly early.

What about Michelle Keegan? Nobody who's appeared in 'Coronation Street' has ever done well.

Still speculation as to who will appear but William Hill aren't taking any chances of being stung even further. 20/1 on Michelle Keegan...just to be on the show!? *WHOOPS*

http://www.tellymix.co.uk/reality-tv/st ... ealed.html

garlicsauce
Legend
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 11814
Joined: Sun May 04, 2008 11:00 pm
Location: RCT

Postby garlicsauce » Fri Aug 07, 2015 3:22 pm

Should start next month, no date yet, but there's some decent names being banded about.

Andrew Ridgeley, now there's a blast from the past! Not sure I'd put any money on Kristina being the winning pro, she does get a load of bad publicity, warranted or not. Kirsty Gallagher would be an interesting one, but the one that ctaches my eye, if he does it is Swanny. He could go well and be very funny too.

Looking forward to it though, as always!

ids81o
Classic Winner
Tips
Posts: 540
Joined: Fri Mar 21, 2008 12:00 am
Location: watford

Postby ids81o » Sun Aug 09, 2015 8:18 am

First name revealed Monday morning on the Chris Evans radio2 show.

stereoman
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1174
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2005 12:00 am

Postby stereoman » Mon Aug 10, 2015 11:15 am

William Hill had a couple of Jeremys on their list but Vine was more likely than with Clarkson (buggered off to play with Amazon) or Paxman (shuffled off to Channel 4 and elsewhere) even if not on their initial shortlist...

http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/tv/s104/str ... ncing.html

...which saves them a pretty penny. One down, eleven to go.

William Hill go 12/1, Betfair 14/1, Ladbrokes 16/1 and Coral 66/1. Think Coral's quote is more realistic.

I generally don't think there's ever been a successful 'back the hoofer' campaign in which the 'no-hoper' wins. Darren Gough and Chris Hollins don't really count.

stereoman
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1174
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2005 12:00 am

Postby stereoman » Wed Aug 12, 2015 1:25 pm

A bizarre drip-drip reveal going on as to who\'s going on the show.

The latest two? Ainsley Harriott and Kellie Bright. 16/1 and 14/1 at William Hill respectively. Jeremy Vine out to 20/1. Sounds about right.

Am expecting the rumours to be true as there\'s a serious lack of \'star power\'.

At this rate, I fully expect the final three to be Peter Andre, Joe McElderry and Kirsty Gallacher because they\'ll be the most competent. Shane Richie and Jamelia to be eliminated \'surprisingly early\'.

Decoro54
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1050
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 12:00 am

Postby Decoro54 » Wed Aug 12, 2015 2:34 pm

When's this show on lads? Was watching Britain at the bookies a few weeks back and they had a bloke who priced up the markets for this show. Andy Murray mum was on it and apparently she was awful on the first show. The fella pricing up the markets for Coral was saying Murrays mum was by far the worst in the comp and pushed her out as the complete outsider at 100-1.Now I don't know what exactly happened to her but when your fella from Coral was watching the next episode she suddenly can alive and was by far the best female in the show. He was wondering if she was having a laugh the first week to get her price pushed out as he said their firm took quite a few sizeable bets when her price was pushed out to 100-1.They had to cut her price into 14-1 and the bloke was sweating over the big bets until she got knocked out a few weeks later. She could have been getting dancing lessons in the weeks between the show as the bloke couldn't figure out how she got so good. Just something to keep in mind if you see one of the contestants who's awful and still gets through. Might be worth a few quid on Betfair and then maybe trade out after a few episodes even if you don't think they will win.

garlicsauce
Legend
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 11814
Joined: Sun May 04, 2008 11:00 pm
Location: RCT

Postby garlicsauce » Wed Aug 12, 2015 2:39 pm

It normally starts in September sometime, but they haven't given a start date yet.
With the 'poor' dancers, regarding trading out, I would see who they are paired with before taking them on. Anton (who Judy was partnered with) has a fan base all of his own and normally gets through a few weeks even though he's normally partnered with the no hopers.

stereoman
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1174
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2005 12:00 am

Postby stereoman » Wed Aug 12, 2015 2:41 pm

Should be the first week of September.

Lot of rubbish about Judy Murrayas she was always awful but they haven\'t been careful that the hoofer wins one of these days because of a coordinated gamble. Was always about Francie Bridge, Caroline Flack and Pixie Lott.

Caroline had \'the journey\' and won. Was she the best dancer? I don\'t think she was but that\'s moot.

garlicsauce
Legend
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 11814
Joined: Sun May 04, 2008 11:00 pm
Location: RCT

Postby garlicsauce » Wed Aug 12, 2015 8:11 pm

Pixie didn't reach the final though, even though she was one of the best (if not the best) dancers. She wasn't helped with who she was partnered with. It was Trents first series and he had too much to say for himslef and upset the Head Judge Len. She went out at the quarterfinal stage and was 34/1 to go and 2.75 to win at the time. Shock wasn't the word fort it!

My advice, keep in mind who the celebs are partnered with, it could make a huge difference!

stereoman
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1174
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2005 12:00 am

Postby stereoman » Wed Aug 12, 2015 10:39 pm

I won't change my post above* but it should have read:

"Lot of rubbish about Judy Murray as she was always awful but they have to be careful that 'the hoofer' wins one of these days because of a coordinated gamble. Was always about Frankie Bridge, Caroline Flack and Pixie Lott."

I have no idea what you think I meant, garlic. My point was about the gamble on Judy Murray and Judy being any good. It was never say, "...always about Jake Wood, Mark Wright and Simon Webbe" even though Jake became a favourite briefly and surprised a few by being able to actually dance kind of well, Mark was hobbling along through a dedicated TOWIE fanbase and Simon was criticized vehemently but survived to get to the final.

Yes, Pixie didn't reach the final but she did well to reach the final six and easily should have been in the final three but was nobbled like others before her (Austin Healey only fourth behind Lisa Snowdon, Rachel Stevens and the ringer, Tom Chambers springs to mind).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strictly_ ... .282014.29

Being the 'best' dancer is always 'moot'. Highly subjective, at the mercy of what the GBP think as much as the judges...and *COUGH* the producers.

Yes, the dancers who the celebrities are partnered with SHOULD make a difference as I've stated before that "No pro dancer has won it more than once". We'll have to see if that holds true.

By my reckoning, the ones to look out for are the newbies Gleb Savchenko, Giovanni Pernice (I'd put money on it that either gets partnered with Kirsty Gallacher) and even Otlile Mabuse.

Joanne Clifton, Karen Clifton, Iveta Lukosuite, Tristan MacManus, Janette Manrara and Kristina Rihanoff are all due a change in luck with who they're partnered with.

Kevin Clifton has been mighty close...can he go third, second and then FIRST in THREE series!?

I wouldn't put a bean on Anton du Beke as he usually gets saddled with the 'comedy' contestant, and his best placed finish was THIRD way WAY back on the first series with Lesley Garrett! He will NEVER be allowed to win. The same applies to Natalie Lowe. No idea if they've pissed off the producers or something over the years.

Am ruling out the others as they're previous winners...which is stupid as there are FIVE previous winners but there are ELEVEN who haven't so 'sight unseen' on a statistical level, I'm going with the 'streak' to continue.

(CUE: A previous winner gets partnered with a ringer just to spite me)

THIRTEEN more celebrities to be announced to make it sixteen...was under the impression there was only going to be twelve for some reason.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strictly_ ... ries_13%29

There have been more than a few hopeful 'back at a huge price, lay at shorter odds' gambles over the years such as John Sergeant, Lisa Riley and even Mark Benton. Doesn't make any sense to me as the money involved to make a few hundred quid requires thousands. More than enough reason for those that do it, I guess.

* Posting on OLBG through Android isn't great (no edit function for one thing, spellcheck is a nightmare to correct being another).

garlicsauce
Legend
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 11814
Joined: Sun May 04, 2008 11:00 pm
Location: RCT

Postby garlicsauce » Thu Aug 13, 2015 10:14 am

Sorry stereoman, didn't mean to cause offence. I totally agree with you, Judy Murray was never a dancer and was never going on the journey, but she was a good back to lay as she was partnered with Anton. I also agree that Anton probably will never win beacuse who he is partnered with. He normally has the legs to go a few weeks on his fanbase alone, nothing to do with who he's dancing with. Like I said in an earlier post though, I wouldn't put any money on Kristina because of her adverse publicity. Do agree on Kevin Clifton, he really got the best out of unfancied Susanna Reid in 2013. Very likeable, it would be just who his partner is this year. I haven't seen the new pros, so can't comment there, but I think they won't be following Trent's lead last year and taking on Len.

No real standout celebs for me yet, but there's plenty of time!

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users