MTV Video Music Awards 2015

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MTV Video Music Awards 2015

Postby stereoman » Wed Jul 22, 2015 11:21 pm

This is an absolute joke of an awards show but good on Betfair (where for art thou, Paddy Power!?) for putting up odds anyway.

http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/music/news/ ... emony.html

Video of the Year:

Alright (Kendrick Lamar) - 6/4
Bad Blood (Taylor Swift ft. Kendrick Lamar) - 15/8
7/11 (Beyoncé) - 4/1
Uptown Funk (Mark Ronson ft. Bruno Mars) - 11/2
Thinking Out Loud (Ed Sheeran) - 6/1

Ladbrokes have a difference in opinion:

Bad Blood (Taylor Swift ft. Kendrick Lamar) - 6/4
7/11 (Beyoncé) - 5/2
Uptown Funk (Mark Ronson ft. Bruno Mars) - 3/1
Thinking Out Loud (Ed Sheeran) - 6/1
Alright (Kendrick Lamar) - 7/1

Best Female Video:

Anaconda (Nicki Minaj) – 2/1
Blank Space (Taylor Swift) - 9/4
7/11 (Beyoncé) - 11/4
Elastic Heart (Sia) – 3/1
Love Me Like You Do (Ellie Goulding) – 10/1

Best Male Video

Alright (Kendrick Lamar) – 9/4
Chains (Nick Jonas) – 5/2
Thinking Out Loud (Ed Sheeran) - 3/1
Uptown Funk (Mark Ronson ft, Bruno Mars) – 7/2
Earned It (The Weeknd) – 4/1

Best Rock Video:

Take Me To Church (Hozier) – 15/8
Shut Up and Dance (Walk the Moon) – 11/4
Ship To Wreck (Florence + the Machine) – 7/2
Why’d You Only Call Me When You’re High? (Arctic Monkeys) – 4/1
Uma Thurman (Fall Out Boy) – 9/2

Specials:

* Nicki Minaj and Taylor Swift to perform 'Anaconda' together? Yes 3/1
* Nicki Minaj to storm the stage while Taylor Swift receives an award? Yes 16/1
* Taylor Swift & Nicki Minaj to perform together during the Show? Yes 6/4

I'd say no (why would they?), no (more of a Kanye West thing) and "Who knows!?" but more than likely, no.

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Postby stereoman » Sun Aug 16, 2015 3:18 am

Just looking back at last year. Rigged beyond belief...it's no wonder most bookies haven't put up odds. It's just a matter of who conveniently wins but there is no rhyme or reason why one artist wins in one category but gets snubbed in another.

Last year's winners: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_MTV_ ... sic_Awards

One to keep a watching brief about but not to put any money on unless you happen to be in the know. Not one for hunches.

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Postby LustForLeith » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:50 pm

Going for the following

Taylor Swift - Bad Blood - Video Of The Year

Timed for perfection. All star cast, controversial lyrical content (hello Katy Perry!) with Kendrick Lamaar on vocals.

Taylor swift - Blank space - Best female video

Nicki Minaj was favourite for this but the money is going on Taylor. Again, bang on trend from an artists who appeals to kids and hipsters alike

Mark Ronson - Uptown Funk - best male video

Imagine what this would have been like if it had been released in the summer and not over the festive period? Maybe that was part of it's appeal. Again the money seems to be going on Ronson from scooping the prize.

Hozier - Take Me To Church - best rock video

This song created a lot of buzz of it's video embracing gay relations and I think that alone will carry it to the prize.

Pity that you can't back more than singles. Odds are short but hopefully they'll come in!

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Postby stereoman » Fri Aug 28, 2015 2:27 am

Have been hunting high and low as to who have still got odds up and it appears only Betfair, 188Bet and sportsbet.com.au (Paddy Power's Australian sports betting arm) have any. A few have 'Video of the Year' odds but that's about it.

Predictions from Uproxx:

http://uproxx.com/music/2015/08/vma-pre ... ill-win/5/

I would open an account with sportsbet.com.au but they don't allow anybody from the United Kingdom (or the USA) to open an account.

Here are their odds anyway with Betfair's in brackets and 188Bet's after that...

Video of the Year:

Bad Blood (Taylor Swift ft. Kendrick Lamar) - 1.95 (5/6) 1.95
Uptown Funk (Mark Ronson ft. Bruno Mars) - 4.00 (3/1) 4.00
Thinking Out Loud (Ed Sheeran) - 5.00 (11/2) 9.50
Alright (Kendrick Lamar) - 11.00 (7/2) 4.50
7/11 (Beyoncé) - 13.00 (8/1) 9.00

Should have nailed those opening 15/8 odds that Betfair were offering on 'Bad Blood'. I'd be very surprised if anyone else won although 'Alright' jumped from 21.00 to 4.50 over at 188Bet. It was Betfair's original favourite to win.

I'm suspicious as to why Taylor isn't at worse odds. Not a done deal but 'Bad Blood' should still win.

PREDICTION: 'Bad Blood' - Taylor Swift ft. Kendrick Lamar

Best Female Video:

Blank Space (Taylor Swift) - 1.33 (5/4) 2.50
Love Me Like You Do (Ellie Goulding) – 5.00 (12/1) 15.00
Elastic Heart (Sia) – 6.00 (5/1) 6.50
Anaconda (Nicki Minaj) – 9.00 (15/8) 2.80
7/11 (Beyoncé) - 11.00 (7/2) 4.50

'Anaconda' was initially the favorite at Betfair but 'Blank Space' has gotten some sort of momentum. Taylor has a crazy fanbase but MTV does not play fair.

http://www.goldderby.com/forum/topics/view/9931/page:26

I think MTV want to split the prizes up and this could be a good opportunity to shut up the critics with a convenient win for Nicki. They might easily give her Best Hip-Hop Video or ABSOLUTELY NOTHING though. Nicki was 7.00 at 188Bet and now into 2.80 so 9.00 at sportsbet.com.au is tremendous 'value' but will Nicki win?

I think Minaj somehow will.

PREDICTION: 'Anaconda' - Nicki Minaj

Best Male Video:

Uptown Funk (Mark Ronson ft, Bruno Mars) – 2.10 (2/1) 1.80
Thinking Out Loud (Ed Sheeran) - 2.50 (2/1) 2.75
Alright (Kendrick Lamar) – 7.00 (3/1) 13.00
Earned It (The Weeknd) – 9.00 (6/1) 8.00
Chains (Nick Jonas) – 13.00 (4/1) 34.00

Two of these outsiders are performing and even though that usually means nothing, I think the odds that they're being offered at is worth a very speculative bet. 8/1 for The Weeknd and 33/1 for Nick Jonas are crazy odds. 12/1 on Kendrick Lamar is even more insane but I strongly suspect he's going to generally get ignored apart from being on Taylor Swift's 'Bad Blood'.

MTV has the tendency to shun nominees even if they are popular and I'm banking on that as MTV pick either The Weeknd or Nick Jonas over the three that are nominated for 'Video of the Year'. For some curious reason, I'm siding with Nick Jonas as a big favour to Miley Cyrus.

I don't think Ed Sheeran will factor this year even after winning last year. He won't make it back-to-back wins. Few ever do.

PREDICTION: 'Chains' - Nick Jonas

Best Rock Video:

Take Me To Church (Hozier) – 2.20 (15/8)
Shut Up and Dance (Walk the Moon) – 2.30 (11/4)
Ship To Wreck (Florence + the Machine) – 6.00 (7/2)
Why’d You Only Call Me When You’re High? (Arctic Monkeys) – 12.00 (4/1)
Uma Thurman (Fall Out Boy) – 13.00 (9/2)

Absolutely no change in the odds at Betfair which is remarkable. Hozier is the PC choice and would probably win but I suspect that we're gonna get a "DAFUQ!?" winner here with those perennial underachievers Fall Out Boy somehow prevailing instead.

My usual logic is "You turn up to perform, you win!" so Walk the Moon are the more likelier winners but this is MTV. Lorde's 'Royals' won this last year after all.

PREDICTION: 'Uma Thurman' - Fall Out Boy

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_MTV_ ... sic_Awards

Will do commentary on other categories offered by sportsbet.com.au later.

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Postby stereoman » Sat Aug 29, 2015 9:52 pm

Interesting...ish. Someone's taken the opinion that Hozier's winning Best Rock Video at sportsbet.com.au and he's gone from 2.20 into 1.80. Walk the Moon 2.30, Florence 6.00, Fall Out Boy shortens slightly into 11.00 and Arctic Monkeys 12.00.

No change at Betfair or the other odds I've quoted.

Odds from sportsbet.com.au ~

Best Hip Hop Video:

See You Again (Wiz Khalifa ft. Charlie Puth) - 1.62
Anaconda (Nicki Minaj) - 5.00
Trap Queen (Fetty Wap) - 6.00
Alright (Kendrick Lamar) - 7.00
IDFWU (Big Sean ft. E-40) - 11.00

Sentimentality probably puts 'See You Again' as a favourite and only the MTV fanbase can still really get upset about Paul Walker's death (that and demented 'Fast & Furious' fans). Will Kendrick Lamar go home empty-handed? If Nicki wins Female then Kendrick might get this instead. Doubt Minaj wins both Female AND Hip Hop.

PREDICTION: 'Alright' - Kendrick Lamar

Best Pop Video:

Blank Space (Taylor Swift) - 2.10
Uptown Funk (Mark Ronson ft. Bruno Mars) - 3.00
Thinking Out Loud (Ed Sheeran) - 5.00
7/11 (Beyoncé) - 9.00
Sugar (Maroon 5) - 13.00

Consolation prize for 'Uptown Funk' here. Don't see Taylor Swift winning too much beyond the top prize but GoldDerby are very high on her though.

http://www.goldderby.com/news/10146/mtv ... 19375.html

PREDICTION: 'Uptown Funk' - Mark Ronson ft. Bruno Mars

Best Collaboration:

Bad Blood (Taylor Swift ft. Kendrick Lamar) - 1.90
See You Again (Wiz Khalifa ft. Charlie Puth) - 3.00
Bang Bang (Jessie J, Ariana Grande & Nicki Minaj) - 6.00
Uptown Funk (Mark Ronson ft. Bruno Mars) - 7.00
Love Me Harder (Ariana Grande ft. The Weeknd) - 13.00

Because they can't get enough Taylor Swift, she has to win more than one televised award.

PREDICTION: 'Bad Blood' - Taylor Swift ft. Kendrick Lamar

Artist to Watch:

Trap Queen (Fetty Wap) - 1.72
Riptide (Vance Joy) - 3.75
Budapest (George Ezra) - 4.50
Hold Back The River (James Bay) - 7.50
Pendulum (FKA twigs) - 15.00

GoldDerby are mostly high on George Ezra. Everybody else is going with Fetty Wap. With a potential lack of black winners, they've surely gotta go with Fetty Wap even if he is destined to be forgotten in twelve months time.

Also, Fetty is the only American nominated (three British and one Australian).

http://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/edi ... watch.html

PREDICTION: 'Trap Queen' - Fetty Wap

Best Choreography:

7/11 (Beyonce) - 1.55
Don't (Ed Sheeran) - 4.00
Gold (Chet Faker) - 8.00
Never Catch Me (Flying Lotus ft. Kendrick Lamar) - 11.00
I Won't Let You Down (OK Go) - 11.00

Probably Beyonce or failing that, OK Go. No rhyme or reason. One's a 'VotY' nominee, the other's turned into a novelty act through their music videos gone viral purely because of the dance routines.

There's a question mark as to whether Beyonce will be attending let alone be performing with Kanye West. If so, she wins something. If not, she'll likely win nothing.

PREDICTION: '7/11' - Beyonce

GoldDerby's most likely to win:

Video of the Year: 'Bad Blood' (Taylor Swift ft. Kendrick Lamar)
Best Female Video: 'Blank Space' (Taylor Swift)
Best Male Video: 'Uptown Funk' (Mark Ronson ft. Bruno Mars)
Best Rock Video: 'Take Me to Church' (Hozier)
Best Hip Hop Video: 'Anaconda' (Nicki Minaj)
Best Pop Video: 'Uptown Funk' (Mark Ronson ft. Bruno Mars)
Best Collaboration: 'Bad Blood' (Taylor Swift ft. Kendrick Lamar)
Artist to Watch: 'Budapest' (George Ezra)
Best Choreography: '7/11' (Beyonce)

http://www.goldderby.com/news/10140/mtv ... 57931.html

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Postby stereoman » Mon Aug 31, 2015 12:55 am

Did I back Fall Out Boy? No, Betfair shut up shop at midnight Sunday. :no:

The Taylor Swift procession looks good to go though. Too much thinking, should have gone with most of the favourites.

Nicki and Taylor did perform together (wonder how much money Betfair lost on that!?) but not 'Anaconda' afaik.

EDIT: 'The Night Is Still Young' and 'Bad Blood' but not 'Anaconda'.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/browbeat/201 ... _feud.html

http://variety.com/2015/tv/news/video-m ... 201581561/

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Postby LustForLeith » Mon Aug 31, 2015 9:17 am

Going for the following

Taylor Swift - Bad Blood - Video Of The Year

Timed for perfection. All star cast, controversial lyrical content (hello Katy Perry!) with Kendrick Lamaar on vocals.

Taylor swift - Blank space - Best female video

Nicki Minaj was favourite for this but the money is going on Taylor. Again, bang on trend from an artists who appeals to kids and hipsters alike

Mark Ronson - Uptown Funk - best male video

Imagine what this would have been like if it had been released in the summer and not over the festive period? Maybe that was part of it's appeal. Again the money seems to be going on Ronson from scooping the prize.

Hozier - Take Me To Church - best rock video

This song created a lot of buzz of it's video embracing gay relations and I think that alone will carry it to the prize.

Pity that you can't back more than singles. Odds are short but hopefully they'll come in!
Back to top
 
:win: :win: :win: :lose:

Three out of four, nevermind!

Good shout with Fall Out Boy Stereoman!

Betfair still had the bet as open this morning - wonder why?

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Postby stereoman » Sun Aug 28, 2016 5:16 am

Not really worth opening a new thread for and only one bookie, those hardy souls at Paddy Power, are playing this year but I'll have a go anyway...

Remember, the show starts at Monday 2am GMT.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_MTV_ ... sic_Awards
http://www.goldderby.com/article/2016/m ... 597314860/
http://time.com/4468310/vmas-2016-mtv-c ... ing-chart/

My thoughts, GoldDerby predictions and of course, the odds:

Video of the Year ~

Beyoncé — "Formation" 1/2
Adele — "Hello" 6/4
Drake — "Hotline Bling" 4/1
Justin Bieber — "Sorry" 8/1
Kanye West — "Famous" 13/1

I loved how they did it in the 'old days' but GoldDerby now do 'aggregate scoring' rather than 'individual scoring' so you know which person has ranked nominees. The new format? You have no idea let alone how there are betting odds attached!

It's awful. The links in the last year's posts do NOT work. for example. They had a good thing then turned into something rather odd.

Editors apparently can't split Beyonce and Adele but give Beyonce slight favouritism with Justin Bieber, Drake then Kanye West behind them in that order.
Experts apparently make Kanye West favourite ahead of Beyonce, Adele, Justin Bieber then Drake.

GOLDDERBY CONSENSUS PREDICTION: Beyonce apparently.
MY PREDICTION: Beyonce is here to collect the big prize and try and derail the Adele Grammys train here even if 'Hold Up' is one of the worst things ever by Beyonce. 'Formation' though might be good enough to 'forgive' Beyonce though.

Am I backing it at 2/1 ON though? No as Kanye West who will be there, could easily be the mega huge spoiler here.

Best Female Video ~

Adele — "Hello" 1/5
Rihanna (featuring Drake) — "Work" 3/1
Beyoncé — "Hold Up" 4/1
Ariana Grande — "Into You" 8/1
Sia — "Cheap Thrills" 13/1

Experts go: Rihanna, Beyonce, Adele, Ariana Grande then Sia.
Editors go: Beyonce, Adele, Ariana Grande, Rihanna then Sia.

GOLDDERBY CONSENSUS PREDICTION: Adele apparently.
MY PREDICTION: For a bit of variety they may very well give this to Rihanna. Adele apparently won't be turning up and could easily be this year's designated 'VotY' nominee who gets shut out...this is a MTV crowd NOT a Grammys crowd.

...with Rihanna opening the show, getting the Michael Jackson Video Vanguard award and at odds of 3/1, I'm taking a punt on that that she ain't turning up without collecting an actual competitive award.

Ariana Grande could be a surprise spoiler unless this is a 'Beyonce must win everything' night. As I reiterate 'Hold Up' as a piece of music is awful. As a music video? It's fairly provocative if you've seen it from 'Lemonade' (smashing things with a baseball bat!) but it's generally not available online what with it being part of the visual album that you have to buy to view.

Best Male Video ~

Drake — "Hotline Bling" 1/2
The Weeknd — "Can't Feel My Face" 6/4
Calvin Harris (featuring Rihanna) — "This Is What You Came For" 4/1
Bryson Tiller — "Don't" 8/1
Kanye West — "Famous" 13/1

Editors go: Drake, The Weeknd, Kanye West, Calvin Harris then Bryson Tiller.
Experts go: Kanye West, Bryson Tiller, Drake, The Weeknd then Calvin Harris

GOLDDERBY CONSENSUS PREDICTION: Drake apparently.
MY PREDICTION: Drake is the safe option but depending who you believe, he's either performing with Rihanna or he won't be there.

At an absurdly high 13/1, I'm taking a very speculative punt that Kanye West will be given the platform to give a weird speech and making more of a nuisance of himself.

Best Hip-Hop Video ~

Desiigner — "Panda" 1/5
Bryson Tiller — "Don't" 3/1
Drake — "Hotline Bling" 4/1
2 Chainz — "Watch Out" 8/1
Chance the Rapper (featuring Saba) — "Angels" 13/1

Editors go: Drake, Bryson Tiller, Desiigner, Chance the Rapper then 2 Chainz.
Experts go: Bryson Tiller, Drake, 2 Chainz, Desiigner then Chance the Rapper.

GOLDDERBY CONSENSUS PREDICTION: Drake apparently.
MY PREDICTION: What a weird category. I suppose Paddy might know something but Drake should be favourite yet as stated he might not even be there...and the likes of Desiigner ("WHO!?") and 2 Chainz have aisle seats.

I get the odd feeling that Kanye West might present this and give this award to his protege, Desiigner but at 5/1 ON I'm not at all interested.

Abstaining from a bet on this category but Drake would be my call at a juicy 4/1 if I were to have one AND knew that he'd be there on Sunday night/Monday morning.

Best Pop Video ~

Adele — "Hello" 1/2
Beyoncé — "Formation" 6/4
Justin Bieber — "Sorry" 8/1
Ariana Grande — "Into You" 10/1
Alessia Cara — "Wild Things" 16/1

Editors go: Adele, Justin Bieber, Beyonce, Ariana Grande then Alessia Cara.
Experts go: Beyonce, Adele, Justin Bieber, Ariana Grande then Alessia Cara.

GOLDDERBY CONSENSUS PREDICTION: Justin Bieber apparently.
MY PREDICTION: Ordinarily 8/1 on Justin Bieber is fantastic odds in what is supposedly a fanvote but I don't even know if that spoiled brat is going to turn up....Madison Square Garden in New York is a helluva long way from Los Angeles after all and the VMAs don't tend to give awards to people who don't turn up.

Alessia Cara is the first act on the preshow but that likely won't allow her to cause an almighty upset. Adele is very likely a 'no show' so who will win this!?

Beyonce would be my favourite if pressed but no bet here as I think Ariana Grande could kind of cause an upset here just as she's a nice enough gal despite her 'bakery shenanigans'.

Best Rock Video ~

Fall Out Boy (featuring Demi Lovato) — "Irresistible" 1/2
Coldplay — "Adventure of a Lifetime" 6/4
All Time Low — "Missing You" 8/1
Twenty One Pilots — "Heathens" 10/1
Panic! at the Disco — "Victorious" 20/1

Editors agree with Paddy's order,
Experts go: Fall Out Boy, Coldplay, Panic! at the Disco, Twenty One Pilots then All Time Low.

GOLDDERBY CONSENSUS PREDICTION: Fall Out Boy apparently.
MY PREDICTION: Anyone but Coldplay could kind of win this. Demi Lovato likely won't be turning up so that might dent Fall Out Boy's chances somewhat.

Panic! at the Disco will apparently be there so a very speculative bet at 20/1 is what I'll be having.

So in summary, my predictions are...

Video of the Year: 'Formation' - Beyonce
Female Video: 'Work' - Rihanna ft. Drake
Male Video: 'Famous' - Kanye West (SHOCKEROO!!)
Hip-Hop Video: 'Panda' - Desiigner
Pop Video: 'Into You' - Ariana Grande
Rock Video: 'Victorious' - Panic! at the Disco

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Postby stereoman » Sun Aug 28, 2016 9:46 pm

Paddy aren't scared of my speculative action as the odds remain unmoved but I'll slap in a post here to make it EDIT-PROOF.

No-one's ever called me a cheat on here...which is nice.

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Postby stereoman » Mon Aug 29, 2016 1:16 am

The first award of the night of 'Best Hip-Hop Video' went to Drake who was 'stuck in traffic' (aka 'no show'). I should've backed it! :no:

https://twitter.com/Variety/status/770067115474821121

Calvin Harris gets 'Best Male Video'!? Who saw that coming!? :?

https://twitter.com/Variety/status/770073408126218240
At an absurdly high 13/1, I'm taking a very speculative punt that Kanye West will be given the platform to give a weird speech and making more of a nuisance of himself.[
...and then this happens!

https://twitter.com/ZeitchikLAT/status/ ... 0564168705

Ho-hum. MTV could have killed two proverbial birds with one stone but nope, they had to give the only white guy in the final five an award (also beating out two 'VotY' nominees to boot!) then follow it up with Kanye West rambling for four minutes.

I hate the MTV VMAs!

Long long performance break before the next awards. It's 3:42am right now and Beyonce has just performed and only two 'big' awards have been handed out so far.

Britney Spears has to follow Beyonce. Cruel stuff, showbiz.

Britney Spears was lip-synching and not dancing very well apparently. Meh.

The US women's gymnastics team hand 'Best Female Video' to Beyonce.

https://twitter.com/Variety/status/770094945734713344

Image

Thought they'd save this for 'Video of the Year'. Who's presenting that that's better than five Olympic gold medalists!?

A trio of third favourites prevailing. Ugh. No wonder Paddy wasn't concerned with my bets anyway.

Beyonce does indeed win the biggest prize of the night of 'Video of the Year'.

https://twitter.com/Variety/status/770102438330269697

http://variety.com/2016/music/news/vma- ... 201846223/

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Postby stereoman » Mon Aug 29, 2016 3:57 am

Huh. Drake finally turns up...maybe he really was stuck in traffic after all. But, still though...he turned up for the Rihanna tribute....and that's the end of the show.

https://twitter.com/RobLeDonne/status/7 ... 9277983746

They didn't bother to have the Pop and Rock awards handed out! Ouch. That's MTV for you! It's no longer about pop & rock!

EDIT: Beyonce (6/4) and Twenty One Pilots (10/1) won.

Yuk. It was a 'Beyonce must win everything' kind of night as she only lost one award.

One out of six. Must do better. :lose:

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