Mercury Prize 2015

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Mercury Prize 2015

Postby stereoman » Fri Jul 03, 2015 1:16 am

Have more-or-less given up on this as in the last two years, I strongly suspect the jury did an 'about turn' with who was supposed to win.

Last year's jury...who out of this lot really voted for *COUGH* Young Fathers?

Simon Frith (Chairman) – Author and Music Writer; Professor of Music, Edinburgh University
Annie Mac – DJ and broadcaster
Elisa Bray – Music Editor, The Independent
Obaro Ejimiwe (aka Ghostpoet) – Musician and songwriter
Greg Cochrane – Editor, NME.com
Jeff Smith – Head of Music, 6Music/Radio 2
John Kennedy – Presenter, ‘X-Posure’, Xfm
Kat Morris – Festival Director, The Great Escape
Kate Mossman – Music Writer and Broadcaster; Arts Editor, New Statesman
Lianne La Havas – Musician and songwriter
Mike Flynn – Music Writer; Deputy Editor Jazzwise
Nick Luscombe – DJ and broadcaster; founder ‘Musicity’

I have no idea who this year's jury will be other than it will be headed by the always there Simon Frith.

Betfair and Ladbrokes have had a stab at who the likely winner is ante-post...

Odds from Betfair:

Blur - The Magic Whip 5/1
Jamie XX - In Colour 6/1
Florence & the Machine - H.B.H.B.H.B 8/1
Hot Chip - Why Make Sense? 10/1
Everything Everything - Get 12/1
Paul Weller - Saturn's Pattern 12/1
Young Fathers - WMABMT 14/1
Laura Marling - Short Movie 16/1
Django Django - Born Under Saturn 16/1
Stornoway - Bonxie 20/1
The Waterboys - Modern Blues 20/1
James Bay - C.A.T.C 22/1
The Vaccines - English Graffiti 25/1
Mini Mansions - Great Pretenders 33/1
Joanna Gruesome - Peanut Butter 33/1
Peace - Happy People 33/1

Odds from Ladbrokes...

Jamie xx 4/1
Florence & the Machine 10/1
Wolf Alice 10/1
Blur 12/1
Drenge 12/1
Everything Everything 12/1
Hot Chip 12/1
Nadine Shah 12/1
Andy Stott 16/1
East India Youth 16/1
Laura Marling 16/1
Paul Weller 16/1
Stornoway 16/1
Young Fathers 16/1
Hudson Mohawke 20/1
James Bay 20/1
Krept & Konan 20/1
Savages 20/1
The Vaccines 20/1
Django Django 25/1
Dutch Uncles 25/1
FFS 25/1
Little Boots 25/1
Marina & the Diamonds 25/1
Muse 25/1
Richard Dawson 25/1
Slaves 25/1
Sleaford Mods 25/1
Soak 25/1
Swim Deep 25/1
Belle & Sebastian 33/1
Du Blonde 33/1
Frank Turner 33/1
Gaz Coombes 33/1
Julio Bashmore 33/1
Marc Almond 33/1
Peace 33/1
Public Service Broadcasting 33/1
The Cribs 33/1
Noel Gallagher 50/1
Mumford & Sons 66/1
Beans On Toast 100/1
Ben Haenow 100/1
One Direction 100/1

Curiously there isn't a date for the announcement of the nominations yet. It's usually late July with the winner announced AFTER The Man Booker Prize sometime in September or even October.

Best of luck. I will be refraining from having a bet on this for once. I would suggest Young Fathers CANNOT possibly be repeat winners but who really knows!? There hasn't been a 'zeitgeist' grabbing album this year like in previous years with Arctic Monkeys, The XX or even PJ Harvey that screams "THEY MUST WIN OTHERWISE THIS AWARD IS A FARCE!!".

I believe Damon Albarn has had an 'about face' about boycotting the award considering he was nominated last year and Blur may even be nominated again...but ultimately not win. I still don't think Damon's gotten over 'Parklife' inexplicably being beaten by M People's 'Elegant Slumming'.

There could be the possibility of a 10/1+ winner for a THIRD year in a row.

I wonder if Wire could get a nomination though,

http://www.theguardian.com/music/musicb ... are_btn_tw

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Postby stereoman » Wed Aug 05, 2015 12:58 am

Huh. The shortlist will be announced on Friday 16th October with the ceremony on Friday 20th November.

Bizarre. It's usually announced on a Tuesday and the ceremony on a Wednesday.

Shenanigans afoot. I can very well believe Jamie XX could be nominated but I find it difficult to believe he'll win. Nobody's won twice apart from PJ Harvey. Jamie could make history by winning it twice as part of a group and as a solo act.

http://www.xfm.co.uk/news/mercury-prize ... Ih3GDuP.97

James Bay surely won't be nominated. He continues the new genre initiated by Ed Sheeran of 'snoozy pop' which is inexplicably popular.

Who's going to win at this stage then? I, personally, don't have a favourite to win. I'm just keeping up with the odds. I don''t care any more. I've lost my faith in the Mercury Prize.

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Postby LustForLeith » Wed Aug 26, 2015 7:19 pm

Predicting go the Mercury winner is often like prediction the lottery numbers!

No harm in trying!

Interesting to see who will be nominatd but I think one act who have a chance is Foals. Progressed to a really big alternative act with potential to break into the mainstream. Mentioned it before they won't be headlining Glastonbury next year but wouldn't rule them out from doing it in the future.

Their new album What Went Down is out on Friday. Just now they're 20/1 to win he Mercury Prize which is risky as the nominations haven't been announced yet. But if they get nominatd, expect the odds to be shorter.

Foals to win Mercury Music Prize with What Went Down 20/1.

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Postby stereoman » Fri Oct 09, 2015 10:45 pm

The shortlist of twelve is announced next Friday. Still ante-post odds up at Ladbrokes. Nobody else is chancing it.

Everything Everything 4/1
Jamie xx 6/1
The Maccabees 8/1
Richard Dawson 10/1
Ghostpoet 12/1
Nadine Shah 12/1
Sleaford Mods 12/1
Wolf Alice 12/1
Foals 16/1
LoneLady 16/1
Alt-J 20/1
Dutch Uncles 20/1
Florence & the Machine 20/1
LA Priest 20/1
Laura Marling 20/1
Public Service Broadcasting 20/1
Richard Hawley 20/1
Slaves 20/1
Soak 20/1
Stornoway 20/1
Young Fathers 20/1
Blur 25/1
Genghar 25/1
Hot Chip 25/1
Hudson Mohawke 25/1
James Bay 25/1
Krept & Konan 25/1
Little Boots 25/1
Marina & the Diamonds 25/1
Savages 25/1
The Staves 25/1
The Vaccines 25/1
Andy Stott 33/1
Aphex Twin 33/1
Belle & Sebastian 33/1
Breakage 33/1
Dean Blunt 33/1
Django Django 33/1
Drenge 33/1
Du Blonde 33/1
East India Youth 33/1
FFS 33/1
Four Tet 33/1
Frank Turner 33/1
Gaz Coombes 33/1
GEoRGiA 33/1
Grasscut 33/1
Gwenno 33/1
Jamie T 33/1
Jane Weaver 33/1
Julio Bashmore 33/1
Lianne La Havas 33/1
Marc Almond 33/1
New Order 33/1
Paul Weller 33/1
Peace 33/1
Roisin Murphy 33/1
Stealing Sheep 33/1
Swim Deep 33/1
The Cribs 33/1
The Go! Team 33/1
The Libertines 33/1
Duran Duran 50/1
Muse 50/1
Noel Gallagher 50/1
The Nightingales 50/1
Mumford & Sons 66/1
The Membranes 66/1
Beans On Toast 100/1
Ben Haenow 100/1
Emily Browne 100/1
One Direction 100/1

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Postby Omniscient » Mon Oct 12, 2015 5:28 pm

Mercury is toxic, and I tend to stay away from toxicity wherever possible.
It's a quick route to the poor house
The strange thing about it, is the favourites and most popular artists often don't win. Therefore one cannot predict the winner via either, as is often the case in other specials markets.
I consider it to be rotten as a result, and have never had a fiscal interest in it.
I suppose one could use arbitrage and spread bet all the runners; but the profit v liability isn't good enough for me personally.
Best avoided I think.

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Postby stereoman » Tue Oct 13, 2015 12:03 am

I'd say having followed it for quite a while and having posted enough insane posts online around the internet that no, you're actually very wrong here.

The betting favourites/insider gambles mostly land but wow, the last two years have been brutal. Bookies were smirking heavily at punters as James Blake and Young Fathers came to their rescue having been virtually unbacked but prior to that there were a run of betting favourites/insider gambles that won. Go ask the bookies how Franz Ferdinand, Arctic Monkeys, Elbow, PJ Harvey, The xx and Alt-J clobbered them and how the inside gambles of Antony and the Johnsons, Klaxons and Speech Debelle floored them.

Not so 'omniscient' here. Having an 'in' with Simon Frith and the jury trying to work out each individual's taste in music won't determine who will win...could you have worked out that Young Fathers would have won last year from the jury in the first post!? Possibly Ghostpoet might've voted for them but who else!?

These folks are this year's jury:

Simon Frith (Chairman) – Author and Music Writer; Professor of Music, Edinburgh University
Anna Calvi – Musician and songwriter
Corinne Bailey Rae – Musician and songwriter
Elisa Bray – Music Editor, The Independent
Greg Cochrane – Editor, NME.com
John Kennedy – Presenter, ‘X-Posure’, Xfm
Kat Morris – Festival Director, The Great Escape
Kate Mossman – Music Writer and Broadcaster; Arts Editor, New Statesman
MistaJam – DJ and broadcaster
Mike Flynn – Music Writer; Deputy Editor Jazzwise
Nick Luscombe – DJ and broadcaster; founder ‘Musicity’
Nick Mulvey – Musician and songwriter

Interesting-ish. Seven of the same jury last year (eight if you count the always present Simon Frith). This superficially suggests an 'indie' not an 'urban' winner this time as they usually don't like to repeat genres but saying that, they can do whatever they like and trying to predict their tastes like picking five judges from six books out of the Man Booker Prize is 'very unlikely' bordering on 'impossible' as it'll be another 'carve-up' as they go against the gamble and perceived favourite yet AGAIN. You're picking eleven jury members from twelve albums here...it's 'mindboggling'.

OT: Vice has an interesting article about the 'myths' of the award...

http://www.vice.com/en_uk/read/question ... cury-prize

Simon Frith DOESN'T have a vote!? ()

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Postby LustForLeith » Tue Oct 13, 2015 6:40 am

...I reckon they pull a name out of a hat!

Going to wait to see what happens when the Shortlist is announced but I reckon that logic goes out the window when it comes to the Mercury Awards.

In the prize money £20,000? If so it's never changed!

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Postby stereoman » Fri Oct 16, 2015 12:21 pm

This year's shortlist has been announced:

Syro - Aphex Twin
At Least For Now - Benjamin Clementine
Architect - C Duncan
Eska - Eska
How Big, How Blue, How Beautiful - Florence + The Machine
Matador - Gaz Coombes
Shedding Skin - Ghostpoet
In Colour - Jamie xx
Hairless Toys - Róisín Murphy
Are You Satisfied? - Slaves
Before We Forgot How To Dream - SOAK
My Love Is Cool - Wolf Alice

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-34528483
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/music/news/m ... nees-2015/
http://www.theguardian.com/music/musicb ... wolf-alice

One of last year's jury is on THIS year's list? Hmmm.

Early thoughts? Benjamin Clementine, Wolf Alice and Jamie xx in a 'battle royale'. Am still not having a bet.

Insta-odds from Ladbrokes:

Jamie xx 9/4
Wolf Alice 5/1
Ghostpoet 5/1
Soak 8/1
Slaves 8/1
Florence & the Machine 10/1
Gaz Coombes 16/1
Roisin Murphy 16/1
Aphex Twin 20/1
ESKA 20/1
Benjamin Clementine 20/1
C Duncan 25/1

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Postby LustForLeith » Tue Oct 20, 2015 1:25 pm

No idea how Foals didn't make the short list. Or Everything Everything. Of Jamie T...

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Postby stereoman » Sun Dec 13, 2015 7:09 am

Noticed the odds movement on Benjamin Clementine from 20s into 8s and I didn't place a bet because of my stubbornness over last year. Somebody obviously knew something. Meh. :no:

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Postby LustForLeith » Sun Dec 13, 2015 4:18 pm

Noticed the odds movement on Benjamin Clementine from 20s into 8s and I didn't place a bet because of my stubbornness over last year. Somebody obviously knew something. Meh. :no:
I remember reading a thing on the NME saying he was favourite from outsider days before it. Someone's. Knew so etching. Clearly wasn't me!

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Postby stereoman » Thu May 12, 2016 9:29 pm

Oooh.

http://www.digitalspy.com/music/news/a7 ... -now-vote/

Doubt there'll be a populist winner though.

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