Betting On the Oscars 2016

LustForLeith
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Betting On the Oscars 2016

Postby LustForLeith » Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:04 pm

Doesn't seem that long ago we were talking about this years Oscars...well, it was only a week or so ago!

I'm going to do a proper right up like I did last year but I wanted to strike while the iron is hot for one particular category!

Here goes...

I think Bradley Cooper is going to win an Oscar. And if he does it will be best supporting actor Oscar for 'Joy'.

Coopers on fire. He made his name in The Hangover but in recent years has moved into more serious roles and has been nominated for the last three years for Best Actor/Supporting Actor for Silver Lining Playbooks, American Hustle and American Sniper.

There's a bit of a theme in those films and it's not the word 'American'. The first two were directed by David O Russell whose behind the lense of Coopers latest film.

Joy will see Cooper team up not only with the director but also Jennifer Lawrence and Robert De Niro once again. It tells the tale of a housewife (Lawrence) who invents the mop with Cooper to play her husband.

I think Coopers on a hot streak just now and not just for his film work. He's recently starred in the Broadway adaption of The Elephant Man which in the summer will come over to London. Reviews have been extremely favourable for his physical performance with people taking him serious as an actor.

American Sniper might not be to everyone's taste but is undoubtably popular, especially in America. While the Oscars isn't a popularity contest, there no denying Cooper is well and truly in the minds of Hollywood.

I really fancied a small nibble but the inch odds I could get were on Paddy Power. They offered me 5/1 on him getting best actor of best supporting actor and I didn't place the bet.

Then I thought about it. I mentioned in my previous thread for this year I like the look of Jk Simmonds early on getting an Oscar but by the time bookies released odds for him he was far too short. I wants and expected bigger odds for cooper but you can't always get what you want.

Is he a cert? No. There's going to be a host of films coming out this year with serious heavyweight performances and there's a chance Cooper might fail to live within the company.

But Hollywood loves him in a way in which they loved (and still do) George Clooney when he got the Best supporting oscar for Syriana. I think with Di Caprio, Chedle and Redmayne all set to feature in the best acting category, the films promoters are more likely to go for Cooper in the supporting stakes. But Paddy Power have doubled my chances by offering best actor and best supporting actor.

I really wanted bigger odds. Going back to the double whammy of Matthew McConanahey and Jared Leto at 10/1 and 20/1 respectively, I was hoping for a chance to take some cash off the bookies. Maybe they learned their lesson. But maybe I have too. It's too early to say if he has a chance but my instinct says he does and I've ignored it to my peril recently. I think it's worth a small nibble.

Bradley Cooper Best Actor/Best supporting Actor 2016 5/1 Paddy Power

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Postby stereoman » Fri Mar 06, 2015 1:35 pm

Bradley Cooper...Oscar winner!? Not impossible. Three consecutive nominations mean they do like him ...but enough to give him an Oscar!? If he can build up a 'head of steam' and just cruise through awards season then 5/1 seems a bargain.

'Joy' seems mundanely quirky as a premise but if you can get enough critics and awards groups to follow in praise then it's almost an unstoppable road to getting an Oscar.

I'm not 'unconvinced' but sitting on the fence. It's far too early but as we have seen, the likely winners emerge way before Toronto in September and even Telluride in August.

The 'matinee idol' do occasionally get Oscars. George Clooney, Christian Bale and 'rock star' Jared Leto springs to mind.

'Supporting Actor' is mostly the refuge of 'older' actors though.

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Postby stereoman » Sat Jun 20, 2015 12:02 am

Those funsters at Paddy Power have gone come up with some early odds for Picture, Actor and Actress:

Image

Image

Image

Did someone say "TOO EARLY!!"? There's some spillover from the hype machine from Cannes for folks like Cate Blanchett for 'Carol' but it surely won't translate into an Oscar win.

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Postby stereoman » Sat Jun 27, 2015 10:23 pm

Ladbrokes have odds for Best Picture...

Image

Can't seriously predict who will win BP at this moment of time.

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Postby LustForLeith » Sun Jun 28, 2015 7:48 pm

I've just posted a blog (my first!) on the Oscars.

Here's what or who I think may be in the running

Best Picture

The Danish Girl
Son Of Saul
The Walk
Demolition
The Revenant
Inside Out/The Good Dinosaur
Brooklyn
Bridge of Spies
Steve Jobs
Suffragette
The Program


Best Director

George Miller (Mad Max)
Robert Zemeckis (The Walk)
Alejandro González Iñárritu (The Revenant)
Danny Boyle (Steve Jobs)
Jean Marc Vallee (Demolition)
Sarah Gavron (Suffragette)
The Program (Stephen Frears)

Best Actor

Jake Gyllenhaal (Demolition)
Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)
Johnny Depp (Black Mass)
Ben Foster (The Program)
Michael Caine (Youth)
Tom Hiddleston (I Saw The Light)
Leonardo Di Caprio (The Revenant)

Best Actress

Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)
Cate Blanchett (Carol)
Jennifer Lawrence (Joy)
Naomi Watts (Demolition)
Carey Mulliagn(Suffragette)
Charlize Theron (Mad Max)

Best Supporting Actor

Bradley Cooper (Joy)
Chris O’Dowd (The Program)
Kurt Russell (The Hateful Eight)
Tom Hardy (The Revenant)
Eric Chandler (Carol)


Best Supporting Actress

Rooney Mara (Carol)
Julie Walters (Brooklyn)
Ellen Page (Freeheld)
Meryl Streep (Suffragette)
Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight)

Far too early to say but I think there's some interesting prices around...

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Postby LustForLeith » Sat Jul 11, 2015 3:06 pm

Right!

It's early I know but I like the look of these two!

Best actor

Jake Gyllenhaal Demolition 14/1

The actor has been on fire recently. In Nightcrawler he lost loads of weight and should have got a nomination for his knife edge performance but didn't.

He's bulked up for boxing pic Southpaw and is said to be the best thing in the drama. But it's released this July which might rile him out.

He's in another film called Demolition in which he plays a man whose life spirals out of control after a death. Its directed by Jean Marc Vallee whose on great form. Two years ago the Dallas Byers Club won best actor and supporting actor and last year Wild got two nominations for best actress and best supporting actress.

He's a proper actors director who gets the best from his leads. His hot streak might run out but with Naomi Watts alongside Jake, this run might continue.

I tipped Matthew McConaghey two years ago for The Dallas Buyers Club. He was coming off an impressive run of films such as Killer Joe and Mud and you could tell the Academy was impressed with his dedication and performances and I can see the same happening with Gyenhaal.

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett Carol 10/3


Best Actress is going to be a tough call this year but I like e look of Cate Blanchett. Carol was well received in Cannes where she plays a woman who has an affair with another woman in the form of Rooney Mara. It was Blanchett younger co star who got the acting prize at Cannes but I think on the lea dip to the Oscars they'll swap. Blanchett could be on three Oscars by February.

I'm not put off by the early release of the film. It's been shown at Cannes but will be released later in the year. When Blanchett won for Blue Jasmine that was released in May but her performance was deemed to be so good she won the award months later.

This year it's tighter. Her biggest rival could be her co star Mara and there's Jennifer Lawrence and the Irish girl from Brooklyn whose said to be amazing.

Both worth a small nibble in my opinion. As always any feedback greatly received (looking at you Stereoman!)

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Postby stereoman » Mon Jul 13, 2015 3:27 am

I wouldn't argue with your assessment at this stage. Sight unseen, all we can do is base it on hype and possibly what the studios will be touting as their Oscar contenders.

Will 'Southpaw' hinder Jake Gyllenhaal if he goes for 'Demolition' instead? He'll need the hype machine behind him. Naomi Watts appears to be somewhat of a 'persona non grata' even after 'The Impossible' not too long ago because of the wretched 'Diana' film.

Generally never bet against 'weight loss' or 'physical transformation' and an actor who is 'due'. Is Jake Gyllenhaal the man!? We'll have to see. I can't see Eddie Redmayne repeating for 'The Danish Girl'. Eddie may get nominated because they like him so much despite 'Jupiter Ascending'.

Who's the frontrunner for 'Best Actress'? Superficially it probably is Cate Blanchett but only by default.

I can't even suggest likely winners at this point without a helping hand from Telluride and Toronto.

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Postby stereoman » Tue Jul 21, 2015 2:30 am

*COUGH, SPIT* BWin are asking "Who will be nominated for Best Actor?".

Brad Pitt: Yes 3.00, No 1.33.
Brad Pitt has 'By the Sea'. Chances? Slim.

http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0000093/

Matt Damon: Yes 4.00, No 1.20.
Matt Damon has 'The Martian'. Chances? Slim.

http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0000354/

Antonio Banderas: Yes 4.00, No 1.20.
Antonio Banderas has 'The 33' and um, 'Altamira'. Chances? Not very likely.

http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0000104/

Will Smith: Yes 4.75, No 1.15.
Will Smith has um, 'Concussion'. Chances? More chance of getting a bump to the head.

http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0000226/

Colin Firth: Yes 4.00, No 1.20.
Colin Firth has um, 'Genius'. Chances? Silly to disregard it but, no.

http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0000147/

...and in awesomely bad taste but if there's money to be made, who cares!?

"Who will be the last person to appear in the In Memoriam sequence?"

Omar Sharif 2.30
Any other candidate 2.30
Christopher Lee 2.60

My money would be on 'Any other candidate' rather than Omar Sharif and Christopher Lee who'll both be likely at the beginning or middle rather than um, the end of the 'In Memoriam' montage. There'll be more notable deaths between now and the ceremony in 2016.

How very ghoulish of *COUGH, SPIT* BWin. Closest to a 'death pool' that a bookie will get to.

One for the producers and editor of the In Memoriam montage to make some money off from.

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Postby stereoman » Wed Jul 22, 2015 4:09 am

LOL. Any other candidate into 2.00, Omar Sharif 2.40 and Christopher Lee 4.50.

I would place a bet but I'm restricted to something like £5 a bet and I have a losing record with them. Have never trusted them since my bet on the Dixie Chicks to win 'Album of the Year' at the Grammys was mysteriously rescinded. All my losing bets on the Grammys though were allowed to stand though.

Hello to the scummers at BWin or people making a bet on my suggestion. Take as much money off of BWin as you can for me. Smile when you do so.

*COUGH, SPIT* BWin are also asking "Who will be nominated for Best Actress?".

Angelina Jolie: Yes 4.00, No 1.20.
Sally Field: Yes 2.55, No 1.45.
Juliette Binoche: Yes 4.00, No 1.20.
Emily Blunt: Yes 4.75, No 1.15.

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Postby stereoman » Thu Jul 30, 2015 11:59 pm

"Who will host the 2016 Oscars?" asks um, sportsbet.com.au, Paddy Power's Australian arm*.
"I have no idea..." stereoman replies, "...but here are the odds anyway".

Image

Seth MacFarlane was announced in October 2012, Ellen DeGeneres was announced in August 2013 but Neil Patrick Harris was announced in October 2014 so be on your toes.

I remember Eddie Murphy was announced as host in September 2011, had a change of heart after Brett Ratner was fired in November 2011 and then Billy Crystal ended up hosting it. Paddy Power did not pay out on Billy Crystal only Eddie Murphy.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-15667036
http://www.theguardian.com/film/2011/no ... cars-again

Kevin Hart would be a 'right on' PC decision for host considering they had Seth "My punchlines are often negatively about women, black people or Jews but I'm not a misogynist, racist or anti-Semitic AND I still ended up hosting the Oscars!" MacFarlane.

Kevin Hart isn't going to be nominated for Oscars anytime soon considering he's essentially a mini-Chris Tucker so being the host is a kind of reward but very much a poisoned chalice. Only Ellen and Billy have escaped a critical mauling despite Hugh Jackman, Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin pulling off what I thought ware 'good jobs'.

My choice? Tina Fey and Amy Poehler, who weirdly get away with being offensive that somebody like Ricky "I love myself so must you" Gervais simply cannot do, would likely do a very good job if their Golden Globes shifts are anything to go by.

I have no idea why some markets are available on one site but not the other, Sort it out, Paddy Power!

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sportsbet.com.au

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Postby LustForLeith » Thu Sep 17, 2015 12:10 pm

I\'m going to do an Oscar update when I get a minute but in the meantime I spotted this that caught my interest...

After the worst kept secret and months of speculation Sam Smith is singing the theme song called \"Writing On The Wall\"

Sam\'s immensely popular on both sides of the Atlantic (not my cup of tea but then again maybe he\'s not a fan of me!)

The last Bond theme sung by Adele won an Oscar for best original song. Such a tricky category to predict and he\'s not even been nominated yet (the song hasn\'t been heard even!)

I think he\'ll have a good chance of being nominated and if so he\'ll have a good chance of winning. Such a random category, I\'m sure Rita Ora was up for one last year and didn\'t seem that bothered about it.

Eminem might feature for the song from Southpaw but I really like Smith\'s chances.

Found Ladbrokes offering 12/1 for him to win an Oscar for Best Original Song next year and that\'s what I\'m going for.

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Postby LustForLeith » Thu Sep 17, 2015 7:44 pm

Interestingly enough Paddy Power only offering 4/1 on the Bond song to get Best Original Song at the Oscars next year... :?

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