Betting On the Oscars 2016

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Postby stereoman » Fri Jan 29, 2016 12:21 am

The Screen Actors Guild awards are on Saturday night in the US (Sunday morning for us in the UK).

Five awards up for grabs that are relevant to the Oscars. Leo and Brie seem like 'locks' but the supporting categories (Bale vs. Rylance, and Mara vs. Vikander vs. Winslet the most likely scenarios with Mark Rylance and Alicia Vikander as uneasy favourites) and ensemble seem 'up in the air'.

Paddy Power have odds for 'Best Film Ensemble' offering:

Spotlight 2/5
The Big Short 6/4
Trumbo 22/1
Beasts of No Nation 22/1
Straight Outta Compton 22/1

Likely a straight fight between 'Spotlight' and 'The Big Short'. The latter is rumoured to have sent out screeners very early though. If 'The Big Short' wins, it's got one hand on Best Picture at the Oscars...not always a 'cast iron guarantee' though with 'Little Miss Sunshine', the last film to win the PGA and SAG Ensemble awards but not win Best Picture at the Oscars ('The Departed' won that year). 'American Hustle' won two years ago at the SAGs but of course, '12 Years a Slave' was the 'big' winner at the Oscars instead.

If 'Spotlight' wins then it's a coin flip with perhaps the DGA and possibly even BAFTA having a say where it might go.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/22nd_Scre ... ild_Awards

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Postby stereoman » Sat Jan 30, 2016 7:06 am

ACE have just announced their awards with 'Inside Out' and 'Amy' seeming like 'locks' for their categories.

Looks like the main title fight for Best Picture is bizarrely 'The Big Short' vs. 'Mad Max: Fury Road' at the Oscars.

http://deadline.com/2016/01/eddie-award ... 201693210/

Has to be noted that 'Spotlight' wasn't eligible here.

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Postby stereoman » Sun Jan 31, 2016 3:02 am

This year's winners at the SAG Awards:

Lead Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
Lead Actress: Brie Larson (Room)
Supporting Actor: Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation)
Supporting Actress: Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
Ensemble: Spotlight

http://variety.com/2016/film/news/sag-aw...201692944/

Alicia Vikander will be the new favourite for Supporting Actress now. If she wins at BAFTA for 'Ex Machina' then she'll be even more of a favourite.

Idris Elba overcomes the odds that no-one has ever won at the SAGs without a corresponding Oscar nomination.

This is likely very good news for Sylvester Stallone and even Tom Hardy. Unless Mark Ruffalo or Mark Rylance wins the Oscar, you can likely count either out in amongst the 'we like you enough to nominate you but not let you win' crowd. With Christian Bale, you can add '...again' to that as he's previously won.

Plain sailing for Leo and Brie though. Game on in Best Picture with 'Spotlight' winning though.

With BAFTA possibly voting for 'Spotlight', the edge may seemingly go back to um, 'Spotlight'. If DGA go for Alejandro G Inarritu again or even George Miller then it'll be one of those incredible 'no-one knows anything' years where no precursor award has been that helpful until after the dust has settled.

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Postby stereoman » Sun Feb 07, 2016 7:12 am

This year's DGA award goes to...Alejandro G Inarritu (The Revenant).

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Postby stereoman » Sat Feb 13, 2016 9:01 pm

BAFTA predictions with spoilers as to where there have been some nibbles at the bookies in brackets...

Film - The Revenant (Spotlight and even Carol in what would be a right shocker)
Director - Alejandro G Inarritu (no opposition unless you count Ridley Scott)
Actor - Leonardo DiCaprio (surprisingly it's Eddie Redmayne)
Actress - Brie Larson (Saoirse Ronan but her odds have not caved in like Emmanuelle Riva to suggest an upset)
Supporting Actor - Idris Elba (nibbles on Christian Bale not the odds-on Mark Rylance)
Supporting Actress - Alicia Vikander (Kate Winslet with Rooney Mara still the uneasy favourite though)
British Film - Brooklyn (45 Years even though The Dnaish Girl started off favourite here)

The show starts at 7pm but the telecast is 9pm.

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Postby stereoman » Sun Feb 14, 2016 2:11 am

WGA awards have just been given out. 'Spotlight' won Original Screenplay and 'The Big Short' won Adapted Screenplay. It's still a three horse race!

http://www.thewrap.com/writers-guild-aw ... ting-live/

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Postby stereoman » Sun Feb 28, 2016 11:31 pm

Last minute Oscar predictions:

Picture: The Big Short
Director: Alejandro G Innaritu (The Revenant)
Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
Actress: Brie Larson (Room)
Supporting Actor: Sylvester Stallone (Creed)
Supporting Actress: Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
Original Screenplay: Spotlight
Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short
Cinematography: The Revenant
Editing: The Big Short
Score: The Hateful Eight
Song: "Til It Happens To You", The Hunting Ground
Production Design: Mad Max: Fury Road
Costume Design: Mad Max: Fury Road
Sound Mixing: Mad Max Fury Road
Sound Editing: The Revenant
VIsual Effects: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Makeup/Hairstyling: Mad Max Fury Road
Foreign Film: Son of Saul
Documentary Feature: Amy
Documentary Short: Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
Live Action Short: Day One
Animated Short: World of Tomorrow

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Postby stereoman » Sun Feb 28, 2016 11:37 pm

I wouldn't be betting 'The Revenant' at odds-on even if it does end up winning. Am belligerently going with 'The Big Short' to cause an upset in Best Picture.

Some murmurs that George Miller can upset Alejandro G Inarittu in Director but I strongly doubt it.

Can't make a case for Leonardo DICaprio not winning Actor. Some might think Soairse Ronan can upset Brie Larson in Actress...it very likely won't happen.

Hope Alicia Vikander justifies odds-on quotes for her in Supporting Actress as the money isn't coming in on Kate Winslet.

Mark Rylance with his "...but I'm performing in Broadway, darling!" attitude likely paves the way for a sentimental win for Sylvester Stallone in Supporting Actor.

Most of the value if any will be in the smaller categories. Have highlighted a few potential shocks.

Good luck on your bets, folks.

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Postby stereoman » Mon Feb 29, 2016 3:14 am

WOW!! Two shockers as 'Ex Machina' wins Visual Effects (someone took a punt on the Betfair exchanges!) and 'Bear Story' winning Animated Short.

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I think 'Bear Story' was third favourite. Yep. at Coral it was this:

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'Sanjay's Super Team' 11/10, 'World of Tomorrow' 6/5, 'Bear Story' 9/2, 'Prologue' 33/1 and 'We Can't Live Without Cosmos' 50/1.

'Ex Machina' went out to 100/1 in-running to win Visual Effects with Coral as well!

EDIT: Found an Oddschecker page on a tab that I didn't close.

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Last edited by stereoman on Mon Feb 29, 2016 4:28 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby stereoman » Mon Feb 29, 2016 3:39 am

Ugh. Mark Rylance won. 5/1 in-running at Coral.

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Another shocker in Documentary Short Subject as 'The Girl in the River' won. Some saw it coming though.

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Postby stereoman » Mon Feb 29, 2016 4:13 am

They keep on coming...this time in Live Action Short Film with 'Stutterer' providing a British win.

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Postby stereoman » Mon Feb 29, 2016 4:38 am

Sam Smith is halfway to an EGOT as he upsets Lady Gaga.

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So many upsets so far...and I didn't predict any of them. :sarcasm:

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