Betting On the Oscars 2016

stereoman
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Postby stereoman » Fri Sep 18, 2015 12:39 am

Have one eye occupied on trying to work out what's going to happen at this weekend's Emmys but so many bookies are painfully shy such as bet365 not even putting up odds ("SHAME ON YOU!! NOBODY CAPABLE OF PUTTING UP ODDS!?") but there's been all sorts of hype for this and that over at Toronto for the Oscars.

Best Actor? Johnny Depp, Ben Foster and Eddie Redmayne getting positives but it's Leonardo DiCaprio who's still the betting favourite.

Best Actress? Sandra Bullock ('Our Brand Is Crisis'), Carey Mulligan, Brie Larson ('Room') and Saoirse Ronan getting some positives but it's Cate Blanchett and Jennifer Lawrence duking it out as to who's the bookies' favourite. Alicia Vikander isn't getting the same sort of love that Eddie Redmayne is getting.

I still can't quite believe 'The Revenant' is the favourite to win Best Picture.

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Postby LustForLeith » Fri Sep 18, 2015 3:45 pm

I think a lot of films that were favoured haven't turned out to be as good as people thought/hoped. Could be quite a weak year for Best picture. If there's loads of nominations lie, when they've had ten before I wouldn't be surprised if the likes of. Inside Out/Son of Saul get a nomination.

On the films yet to take a now, The Revelent, Bridge Of Spies, Joy, Jobs and the hateful Eight look interesting.

Going to take a bigger look when I get one of those rare things people call a minute!

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Postby Omniscient » Mon Oct 12, 2015 5:52 pm

It is too early to look at the markets on this.
Personally I take an interest in Best Picture and Best Actor.
My modus operandi over the years has not changed.
I back heavily 72-48 hours before the ceremony.
Reason being, insider money knows at this stage and a movement in odds indicates this. One can back with confidence at this stage.
Of course there can be upsets where favourites don't win; but they are rare.
One must never let ones heart rules ones head on this.
For example, one would think Keaton deserved Best Actor, but Redmayne took it.
Fortunately I followed the money, not my own preference; and Birdman and Redmayne respectively made profit.
The only negative really is having to lump on massive amounts at short odds in order to gain some worthwhile profit.
I never get involved with the other markets, as I consider Best Picture and Best Actor to be more reliable.

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Postby LustForLeith » Mon Oct 12, 2015 8:48 pm

I\'m going to do an Oscar update when I get a minute but in the meantime I spotted this that caught my interest...

After the worst kept secret and months of speculation Sam Smith is singing the theme song called "Writing On The Wall"

Sam\'s immensely popular on both sides of the Atlantic (not my cup of tea but then again maybe he\'s not a fan of me!)

The last Bond theme sung by Adele won an Oscar for best original song. Such a tricky category to predict and he\'s not even been nominated yet (the song hasn\'t been heard even!)

I think he\'ll have a good chance of being nominated and if so he\'ll have a good chance of winning. Such a random category, I\'m sure Rita Ora was up for one last year and didn\'t seem that bothered about it.

Eminem might feature for the song from Southpaw but I really like Smith\'s chances.

Found target='_blank' href='http://olbg.info/1/L3/D/words'>Ladbrokes> offering 12/1 for him to win an Oscar for Best Original Song next year and that\'s what I\'m going for.
Odds at Ladbrokes for Sam Smith to win best original song are now 2/1...

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Postby stereoman » Mon Oct 12, 2015 11:11 pm

Should've put up a set of odds of what Ladbrokes are offering as they're seemingly the most comprehensive in the industry right now as they do have some keen 'film fans' amongst their odds compilers.

Was skeptical when I heard the Sam Smith song ("It sounds a bit TOO much like like 'Earth Song'!!" amongst other things) but there isn't an overwhelming favourite or even a default song from a Pixar film to 'fill the void'.

Eminem's won before and I doubt that the proverbial lightning strikes twice.

Some of the sharpest film fans out there have a poll. Have a perusal there, Lust as to the likely runners. 'Furious 7' and 'Love & Mercy' seem viable options. If they feel they have to reward the James Bond franchise AGAIN then this does seem like the token thing to do. I'm not a Sam Smith fan though.

http://awardswatch.com/forums/showthrea ... ng-October

I would say that yes, Mr Smith that 'insider money' knows in the last few days as more-or-less every favourite won at the past ceremony and that's usually as 'money talks' and what not.. Burnt my fingers 'following the late money' figuring there'd be a few 'upsets'. Apart from one or two categories, there weren't. Ouch.

Seemingly 'looser lips' at PwC these days than there are at the BBC (*COUGH* 'The Great British Bake Off' *COUGH*).

I'd take a guess at the numerous pitfalls in the last decade just taking on Picture and Actor have been...

Picture? The last genuine contest arguably was when 'The Departed' somehow triumphed over 'Babel' and 'Little Miss Sunshine' where the precursor/guild awards went to every other nominee but the eventual Oscar winner. Hindsight says "It was Martin Scorsese's year, yer dummy!!".

'Argo' and 'Birdman' were the subject of some very sharp gambles overcoming seemingly long time 'very good' things such as 'Lincoln' and 'Boyhood' respectively.

Actor? Apart from the occasional odd movement in money like from demented Leonardo DiCaprio fans betting on him to beat Matthew McConaughey ("HA!! Never was gonna happen!!"), this category generally hasn't been a contest apart from when Sean Penn beat Mickey Rourke (they were never going to give an Oscar to 'mental' Mickey!).

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Postby Omniscient » Mon Oct 12, 2015 11:28 pm

I may change my mind on this; but at the moment I fancy;
Leonardo DiCaprio - The Revenant, for best actor and best picture respectively.
As I said before, now is too early to be lumping on favourites.
But if the odds are short on these 72 hours before, I will be on; and on heavily.
First I need my Man Booker bet to deliver tonight, then Jay on Strictly, and Louisa on X-Factor.
I am heavy on all, so need to liquify those funds for the Oscars.
Should Daniel reach week 8/Blackpool in Strictly I will look to cash out and top up on Louisa.
I have Jay and Peter covered, so just need to lump more on Louisa; too much is never enough on that one. I am going all out make or break on her.
I do like the Oscars though, its one of my favourite annual specials bets. Usually a 2 horse race such as Keaton v Redmayne last year. Nice odds too, double one's money with a 50/50 chance. Just the sort of profit v liability we all like.
My biggest ever Oscars win was the year Hurtlocker beat Avatar. To date that was my biggest all time net profit, something my Louisa bet will make look insignificant.

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Depp in Black Mass

Postby CarCallmer » Tue Oct 13, 2015 2:54 pm

Johnny Depp's performance was GREAT and easily the best thing about Black Mass, Not sure if it's deserving of an Oscar though.

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Postby stereoman » Wed Oct 21, 2015 3:28 pm

Chris Rock is back hosting it again which is fortunate for Betfair that they didn't have any odds for him as they still have odds up.

I wasn't a million miles away by suggesting Kevin Hart but they want to give a second chance to Chris Rock instead.

Will get around to posting a comprehensive list of ante-post odds for the various categories eventually.

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Postby LustForLeith » Wed Oct 21, 2015 8:59 pm

Surprised by Rock to be honest. Sort of safe as he's been there before but at the same time makes the Academy slightly cool.

I've posted a blog on the. Oscars, posting in tips any day now apart from one category. Going to wait my time...

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Postby LustForLeith » Sat Oct 24, 2015 10:49 am

Right...

Here's my tips. Sort of.

Best Film - Spotlight

I think the last eleven winners of the best film have been released or at least shown in festivals etc by mid October. Out of all the films released so far, Spotlight, a tale of the Boston Globe investigating child abuse within the church, looks like the best bet.

Best Picture winner Spotlight 11/4 William Hill

Best Actor

No!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I had Jake G to win. Demolition was shown at Toronto then shelved until a release in March next year. He's said to be impressive in it but won't count for next year. I was then thinking of Don Cheadle for 'Miles Ahead' a film he's also directing. But after a showing at new York film festival it's also now coming out next year.

I do have a feeling but patience is sometimes a game worth playing. I'm going to wait until about the middle of November as i think something is going to happen before posting on here and making a bet. Lightening might strike twice...

Best Actress

Risky but I'm sticking with Cate Blanchette. brie Larsson will probably win it but it will be a tussle between the two. And I'm being stubborn and sticking with my original tip.

Best Supporting Actress

Rooney Mara is a pick but her odds are too short. There's a shout she should be in the best actress category. Jennifer Jason Leigh might be her biggest rival.

Rooney Mara Best Support Actress 1/6

Best Supporting Actor

This years hardest category. Michael Keating, Idris Elbr, Tom Hardy and Mark Rylance look like fighting it out amongst themselves.

I'm going for an outside. Jacob Trembley.

He's only eight but is supposed to steal the show in Room. He might not get nominated so I wouldn't be splurging the mortgage but if he does get a nomination then he might edge his experienced rivals for the prize. Critics have been positive over his performance. Age will go against him, but word on the street is if it was to go to the best performance of this year, it would be his.

Best Supporting Actor Jacob Trembley (33/1) Ladbrokes

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Postby stereoman » Sun Oct 25, 2015 11:40 pm

Ladbrokes offer:

BEST PICTURE:

Spotlight 5/2
Joy 7/2
The Revenant 4/1
Steve Jobs 5/1
Carol 8/1
The Hateful Eight 14/1
Room 14/1
Bridge of Spies 16/1
Inside Out 16/1
The Danish Girl 20/1
The Martian 20/1
Brooklyn 25/1
Mad Max: Fury Road 33/1
Suffragette 50/1
The Walk 50/1
Macbeth 50/1
The Good Dinosaur 50/1
Star Wars: The Force Awakens 50/1
Son of Saul 50/1
Beasts of No Nation 50/1
Black Mass 66/1
Straight Outta Compton 66/1
Truth 66/1
Sicario 66/1
Demolition 100/1
In The Heart of the Sea 100/1
Genius 100/1
A Bigger Splash 100/1
By The Sea 100/1
Freeheld 100/1
Mr Holmes 100/1
Spectre 100/1
Amy 100/1
Adam Jones 100/1
Everest 100/1
Snowden 100/1
45 Years 100/1
Youth 100/1
Legend 100/1
Trumbo 100/1
Me and Earl and the Dying Girl 100/1
United Passions 1000/1

BEST DIRECTOR:

David O Russell - Joy 6/4
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu - The Revenant 7/4
Thomas McCarthy - Spotlight 7/2
Danny Boyle - Steve Jobs 8/1
Todd Haynes - Carol 10/1
Quentin Taratino - The Hateful Eight 16/1
Steven Spielberg - Bridge of Spies 20/1
Cary Fukunage - Beasts of No Nation 20/1
Ridley Scott - The Martian 20/1
George Miller - Mad Max Fury Road 25/1
Tom Hooper - The Danish Girl 50/1
Lenny Abrahamson - Room 50/1
Scott Cooper - Black Mass 66/1
JJ Abrams - Star Wars 66/1
John Crowley - Brooklyn 100/1
Paolo Sorrentino - Youth 100/1
Sarah Gavron - Suffragette 100/1

BEST ACTOR:

Michael Fassbender - Steve Jobs 4/6
Leonardo DiCaprio - The Revenent 2/1
Eddie Redmayne - The Danish Girl 4/1
Johnny Depp - Black Mass 8/1
Michael Caine - Youth 20/1
Will Smith - Concussion 25/1
Bryan Cranston - Trumbo 33/1
Matt Damon - Trumbo 50/1
Ian McKellan - Mr Holmes 50/1
Tom Hanks - Bridge of Spies 50/1
Tom Hardy - Legend 50/1
Michael Fassbender - Macbeth 50/1
Joseph Gordon-Levitt - The Walk 100/1
Abraham Attah - Beasts of No Nation 100/1
Richard Gere - Time Out of Mind 100/1
Geza Rohrig - Son of Saul 100/1
Daniel Craig - Spectre 100/1

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Postby stereoman » Sun Oct 25, 2015 11:44 pm

BEST ACTRESS:

Brie Larson - Room 11/10
Cate Blanchett - Carol 11/8
Jennifer Lawrence - Joy 7/2
Saoirse Ronan - Brooklyn 8/1
Carey Mulligan - Suffragette 10/1
Charlotte Rampling - 45 Years 20/1
Lily Tomlin - Grandma 20/1
Cate Blanchett - Truth 33/1
Maggie Smith - The Lady in the Van 33/1
Emily Blunt - Sicario 50/1
Alicia Vikander - The Danish Girl 50/1
Sandra Bullock - Our Brand is Crisis 100/1
Nicole Kidman - Secret in Their Eyes100/1
Charlize Theron - Mad Max Fury Road 100/1
Amy Scumer - Trainwreck 100/1
Helen Mirren - Woman in Gold 100/1
Julianne Moore - Freeheld 100/1
Blythe Danner - I'll See You in My Dreams 100/1

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Michael Keaton - Spotlight 5/4
Idris Elba - Beast of No Nation 6/4
Tom Hardy - The Revenant 4/1
Samuel L Jackson - The Hateful Eight 8/1
Joel Edgerton - Black Mass 12/1
Robert De Niro - Joy 16/1
Benicio Del Toro - Sicario 16/1
Mark Ruffalo - Spotlight 20/1
Mark Rylance - Bridge of Spies 20/1
Harvey Keitel - Youth 25/1
Jason Segel - The End of the Tour 33/1
Jacob Tremblay - Room 33/1
Paul Dano - Love and Mercy 40/1
Bradley Cooper - Joy 50/1
Kurt Russell - The Hateful Eight 50/1
Edgar Ramirez - Joy 50/1
Robert Redford - Truth 50/1
Seth Rogen - Steve Jobs 50/1
Christophe Waltz - Spectre 50/1
Jason Statham - Spy 66/1
Jason Mitchell - Straight Outta Compton 66/1
Jeff Daniels - Steve Jobs 66/1
Michael Shannon - 99 Homes 100/1
Topher Grace - Truth 100/1
Tom Courtney - 45 Years 100/1

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS;/

Rooney Mara - Carol 1/6
Alicia Vikander - The Danish Girl 9/2
Kate Winslet - Steve Jobs 8/1
Jennifer Jason Leigh - The Hateful Eight 12/1
Jane Fonda - Youth 25/1
Kristen Stewart - Clouds of Sila Maria 50/1
Ellen Page - Freeheld 50/1
Joan Allen - Room 50/1
Diane Ladd - Joy 66/1
Helena Bonham Carter - Suffragette 66/1
Rachel McAdams - Spotlight 66/1
Helen Mirren - Trumbo 66/1
Rachel Weisz - Youth 66/1
Julianne Nicholson - Black Mass 100/1
Amy Ryan - Bridge of Spies 100/1
Julie Walters - Brooklyn 100/1

Best of luck, Lust. You're on your own here from now on.

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