Brit awards

LustForLeith
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Brit awards

Postby LustForLeith » Tue Feb 24, 2015 6:50 pm

Alright!

Not sure why there's many bookies taking odds on this but here's my thinking.

Stereoman came up with a point on the Oscars thread about Ed Sheerin winning Best Album and I can see where he's coming from. But I think it will go to Sam smith.

Both artists had a great year last year. Sheerin has sold out Wembley (three nights, much to Noël Gallaghers disgust!) and had the biggest selling album of the year. But smith hasn't done too badly.

He's sold over 1 million copies in the Uk and US and won at the Grammies.

Here's an angle - if Sam smith was a footballer, what song would they sing at him at the Brits?

"He's one of our own, he's one of our own, his name is Sam Smith HE'S ONE OF OUR OWN!"

Why? Well, Smith won the Brits critics choice award lat year where they've selected him to be a big talent. Since Adele one it for the first time seven years ago, three of the best album winners have come from previous critic choice winners (Florecne and the machine, emailed sandie and Adele technically speaking three out of six years as Adele couldn't have won it in the first year as her album wasn't out then). So that's a 50% strike rate. While it doesn't gaurentee anything, I like the odds on offer.

Sam Smtith best British Album 11/4 Betfair

Betfair are like The guy in a Forrero Roche advert spoiling us with their treats. They've got a special market on the Brits and might have exposed themselves a little.

The Brits is famous for it's performances. Madonnas is playing (remember her) but there's a rumour Rihanna is performing too.

I'm useless with links but Goggle Rihanna Brits 2015 and there's a design company that have confirmed they've designed something for her set (drums I think it is)

Now Betfair also offer odds on Kanye Westbokaying. Rihanna and West are riding high in the charts just now but the song in question doesn't have drums - and West is rumoured to be in attendance but scheduling conflicts along with Paul McCartney might mean he might not perform.

So while it's not a cert, I like the fact that Betfair are taking odds on if Rihanna will perform at the Brits when someone's designed something for her.

Your getting 4/1 for West to play but I'm a big fan of Rihanna playing at 6/5. On paper, it looks as if it's an opportunity to print money..!

Ago one know if books are not taking anymore bets because it's already public knowledge on whose winning?!

Sam Smith best album 11/4

Rihanna to perform at the Brits 6/5

Edit tread carefully the photo from that company supplying drums have listed the date as 20/2 when the Brits are the 25/2! Is it a hoax?!

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Postby stereoman » Tue Feb 24, 2015 7:57 pm

Very rare to get an odds against winner so close to the day of the Brit Awards as the 'insiders' get their bets on early making the odds cave in something rotten and generally unbackable.

If Sam Smith wins 'Album' and 'Male' then wow, 2/1+ on both categories waiting to be snapped up that hasn't already been done so is very VERY unusual.

Have been wasting the afternoon on Twitter arguing with the Australian. Ed Sheeran's actually sold more in the UK and worldwide. Grammys success shouldn't mean anything...it generally hasn't done and any crossover success is coincidental.

A good point about the Critics Choice award though. If Sam Smith wins 'Album' and/or 'Male' then yep, justified and more than coincidence and I was VERY wrong as were the bookies. If not and Ed Sheeran wins either or both then whoops, it could be another Duffy beats Adele moment.

http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/music/news/ ... Yyz6rudHfV
http://www.billboard.com/articles/news/ ... rit-awards

I take on board that Universal may have stacked the deck against Warners and that they might have more voters voting for Sam Smith instead of Ed Sheeran but why haven't the odds changed?

http://www.popjustice.com/briefing/the- ... in/133829/

If this is a 'fair contest', I'd be betting on Sam Smith and 'In the Lonely Hour' for 'Male' & 'Album' respectively but I don't think it is. Somebody already knows and has bet accordingly.

Betfair, Betfred, Stan James and Unibet have all reopened their odds in the last few hours though.

Royal Blood for 'Group' and Paloma Faith for 'Female' have been nibbled at as has Ed Sheeran for 'Album'.

I don't think Betfair believe the rumours that Rihanna's in town to perform.

Kanye West is in town (he's 'evens' to turn up to perform!) but I don't know where Paul McCartney or Rihanna are right now to justify the 4/1 that all three will be there in person to perform 'FourFiveSeconds'.

My predicted winners is that most if not all of the betting favourites will win:

British Album: 'X' - Ed Sheeran
British Group: Royal Blood
British Male; Ed Sheeran
British Female: Paloma Faith
British Breakthrough: Sam Smith
British Single: 'Ghost' - Ella Henderson
British Video: 'You & I' - One Direction
International Group: Foo Fighters
International Male: Pharrell Williams
International Female: Taylor Swift
Global Success: One Direction

The Independent go way out there though...

British Album: 'In the Lonely Hour' - Sam Smith
British Group: One Direction (!? Rock is officially dead at the Brit Awards if this happens no matter what Alex Turner said last year)
British Male; Damon Albarn (!?)
British Female: Paloma Faith
British Breakthrough: Royal Blood (!? Sam Smith is 10/1 ON, Royal Blood is 10/1 AGAINST at Betfred)
British Single:'Uptown Funk' - Mark Ronson ft. Bruno Mars (arguably the most popular out of all the nominees)
British Video: 'Thinking Out Loud' - Ed Sheeran (not impossible but kind of unlikely)
International Group: First Aid Kit (I've seen some go for The War on Drugs but people are betting on Foo Fighters at Betfair)
International Male: Pharrell Williams
International Female: Sia (Taylor Swift turns up again to lose!? I don't think so!)

http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-enter ... 67755.html

Have followed this for ages with varying degrees of success. In the afternoon, they're not shy about letting out who the winners are at the rehearsal hours before the show. It's usually leaked on websites like Popbitch.

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Postby LustForLeith » Tue Feb 24, 2015 8:41 pm

In relation to the critics choice award I think there's nothing like the industry getting behind someone...and giving themselves a big slap on the back at the same time!

Rihanna so make up artist posted a tweet that was later deleted about going to the Brits.

Interesting!

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Postby stereoman » Wed Feb 25, 2015 5:51 am

Kanye West IS performing...and Betfair still have 'evens' that he will!?

http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/music/news/ ... uLGT5EIa1c

Rihanna doesn't appear to be in town and Betfair were right then though.

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Postby fairfranco » Wed Feb 25, 2015 10:19 am

When was Kanye Evens to perform?

He was announced to be playing on the Radio yesterday, either during Grimshaw's show or Scott Mills show, can't remember which. Think it must have been Scott Mills.

weird as I can't find anything back to that time but can remember them saying that Riahna was no longer performing and had been replaced by Kanye.

Or was that this morning I heard it?

oh well, you can't bet on it now anyway so who cares, he's playing!!!

--

8/1 he storms the stage during an award...surely that's his thing now! is Beyonce nominated for anything that she won't win?

Surely he storms the stage when Taylor Swift wins best female?

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Postby fairfranco » Wed Feb 25, 2015 10:26 am

as a big Royal Blood fan i'd love to have seen them win the best breakthrough but unfortunatley they got a major tough year. Them and George Ezra could have easily won on another year but surely there's no looking past Sam Smith so far as breakthrough's go!

Surely with just 1 album out if Sam Smith wins best male artist it would be ridiculous if another male were to beat him to best album?

Surprised that Ellie Goulding isn't voted for best female, I suppose she didn't actually do much during 2014 but really that shouldn't rule her out

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Postby stereoman » Wed Feb 25, 2015 5:50 pm

Ellie Gouldingwon last year.

Betting ended before 5:30pm at Betfair.

Photobucket is playing up up but I grabbed acreenshots of the various odds that Betfair had up...they even introduced odds for 'Single' with Ed Sheeran & Mark Ronson bet on.

Little money on Sam Smith to win 'Album' or 'Male'. Either the bookies are right or the insiders forget to bet on it. I still do think it's the former though.

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Postby stereoman » Wed Feb 25, 2015 11:27 pm

Hmmm. If 'Global Success' is based on 'biggest worldwide sales' like it's supposed to be than Sam Smith couldn't have won. Ed Sheeran and Coldplay sold more than him.

Got 'Single' wrong...the power of 'Uptown Funk' to mesmerise idiots is amazing. It's merely a mash-up of James Brown's 'Living in America' and the theme from 'The Really Wild Show'.

BBC Radio One's Huw Stephens knew who the winners were but wasn't telling (6:40pm on Greg James' radio awful show today) before the show started. It's not a fair contest, there's no accounting firm like the Oscars (and even then you have to be wary) to keep things 'secret' and certain people already know who the winners are.

William Hill swore when they got stung for £100k on Paul Weller a few years ago that they wouldn't take bets on the Brit Awards after that but they still do.

Things I've learnt over the years betting the Brit Awards:

1. Follow the money. The favourites are mostly the favourites for a reason as insiders get their bets on.
2. Oppose Simon Cowell's acts if it's an industry award but not a public voted for award.

I'd have loved it if Russell Crowe had said the winner of 'Album' was ...alt-J's 'This Is All Yours' just to deliberately mess it up for the insiders. Would they dare say he got it wrong!? :?

OT: The Australian's got a bit pissy after the show. Must be a big Sam Smith fan as he lost some of his 'Birdman' winnings.

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Postby LustForLeith » Thu Feb 26, 2015 7:37 pm

As it is I'm the only person whose not seen Madonnas fall yet!

Apologies about Rihanna, Sam smith and good spot Stereoman about Kanye a West.

I had problems with Betfair yesterday. Took my money but wouldn't let me bet until I verified my details. Eventually they let me out a bet on and managed to get a nibble on west.

Disappointed as Rihanna was all set to play until she didn't turn up to rehearsals.

Better luck next year!

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