BAFTAS

kyle21b
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BAFTAS

Postby kyle21b » Sun May 18, 2014 12:06 pm

Does anybody bet on this? Or has anyone found a decent bet for tonights awards?? Thanks in advance!!
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Postby garlicsauce » Mon May 26, 2014 10:20 am

One to watch for 2015 BAFTA's =

Sarah Lancashire won this year for Last Tango in Halifax, next year it will be for Happy Valley. Lancashire has come a very long way since playing Raquel Watts in Coronation Street. The only thing that could scupper it, is that it's on now and will have to stay in the memory for nearly a year. It's that powerfull though and Lancashire is magnificent in it. It will be a long time before the betting comes out, but it will be one to watch and keep in mind.

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Postby stereoman » Wed Apr 08, 2015 11:43 pm

Thought Gillian Anderson (The Fall), Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Honourable Woman) and Keeley Hawes (Line of Duty) would have been Sarah's competition but only Keeley made it.

Absolute cakewalk for Sarah Lancashire unless Sheridan Smith who appears to have sold her soul to the devil or even Georgina 'Who she?' Campbell can spring a surprise. Keeley Hawes likely won't win.

http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/tv/news/a64 ... bnCrmVU9hE

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Postby garlicsauce » Wed Apr 29, 2015 8:36 pm

Sheridan Smith is now strong favorite, but my money is still on Sarah Lancashire. I hope people's memories are long!

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Postby stereoman » Sat May 09, 2015 5:05 pm

Hmmm. Not really that much movement in the odds which suggests that the insiders don't care too much...which is odd as they usually love a betting sting.

Prices from William Hill:

Leading Actor ~

Benedict Cumberbatch (Sherlock) 10/11
James Nesbitt (The Missing) 3/1
Toby Jones (Marvellous) 7/2
Jason Watkins (The Lost Honour of Christopher Jefferies) 7/1

Have my fingers crossed for Toby Jones who is the 'nearly man' at awards shows.

Benedict has an Emmy, missed out on an Oscar but will BAFTA want to give him an award on Sunday night? I'd have thought Cumberbatch's odds would be a lot shorter if they were. There could be a surprise here.

I don't expect it to come from James Nesbitt who is 'Sean Connery'-ing his way through acting by not even attempting accents other than his natural speaking voice.

Jason Watkins gets the "Well done but the nomination is it's reward".

Prediction? Toby Jones to finally win and in before he gets critically mauled for 'Dad's Army'.

Leading Actress ~

Sheridan Smith (Cilla) 1/4
Sarah Lancashire (Happy Valley) 7/2
Keeley Hawes (Line of Duty) 10/1
Georgina Campbell (Murdered By My Boyfriend) 10/1

A slight trimming of the odds for Sarah Lancashire who was as high as 6/1 and now is as low as 11/4...I assume this is your work, garlic! Also, some nibbles on Georgina Campbell over at Ladbrokes and *COUGH, SPIT* BetVictor.

Sheridan Smith has done remarkably well since 'Two Pints...'. She already has one BAFTA for 'Mrs Biggs', is likely to be nominated and possibly even win for 'The C Word' ('cancer' if you're wondering) next year. It's almost absurd to think she might have three when others haven't even got one BAFTA.

There were cries of "ROBBERY!!" when Sheridan Smith won the National Television Award ahead of both Benedict Cumberbatch and Sarah Lancashire but that's a populist affair and an awards show on ITV so no surprise, she won there.

Expect BAFTA to rectify that mistake and give this to Sarah Lancashire instead. The odds-on for Sheridan Smith is ridiculous but we'll see if it's justified or not.

I don't expect Georgina or Keeley to cause a surprise here.

Prediction? Sarah Lancashire. Sheridan will likely win next year for 'The C Word'.

Supporting Actor ~

James Norton (Happy Valley) 11/10
Ken Stott (The Missing) 11/8
Stephen Rea (The Honourable Woman) 11/2
Adeel Akhtar (Utopia) 6/1

Ken and Stephen are 'nearly men' as well (both nominated twice before and haven't won) but the praise for 'Happy Valley' means James Norton probably has the edge here. Odd if he wins but Sarah doesn't.

Ken could surprise with a 'consolation win' for 'The Missing'. I don't expect Adeel to be a factor. 'Utopia' is good but it's an acquired taste and I'm surprised Adeel has got here to be honest.

Prediction? James Norton. It's a competitive category. It should be either James or Ken though. Flip of the coin to James though.

Supporting Actress ~

Amanda Redman (Tommy Cooper: Not Like That, Like This) 8/11
Gemma Jones (Marvellous) 11/4
Vicky McClure (Line of Duty) 4/1
Charlotte Spencer (Glue) 13/2

Surprised David Threlfall wasn't nominated for playing Tommy Cooper but Amanda Redman may get some kind of recompense for it though.

A little bit of money coming in for Vicky McClure at Betway and Ladbrokes though.

Prediction? Vicky McClure. The odds on Amanda Redman hasn't shifted since they opened so a surprise could be sprung here.

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Postby stereoman » Sat May 09, 2015 7:31 pm

(cont'd)

Comedy Actor ~

Brendan O'Carroll (Mrs Brown's Boys) 1/3
Matt Berry (Toast of London) 5/1
Hugh Bonneville (W1A) 13/2
Tom Hollander (Rev) 13/2

'Mrs Brown's Boys' is awful but very popular and arguably the MOST popular comedy in the UK & Ireland which goes to show what the GBP & the Irish like.

Hugh does his confused posh bloke thing well, Tom Hollander does his 'good guy trying to do the right thing' thing and Matt does his aggressive schtick.

Will any of 'em be able to defeat Brendan O'Carroll? I fear not. Would like Matt Berry to win but I doubt he will.

Prediction? Sadly, it'll be Brendan O'Carroll. A way to recognize the show without recognizing the show.

Comedy Actress ~

Olivia Colman (Rev) 4/7
Jessica Hynes (W1A) 7/2
Tamsin Greig (Episodes) 5/1
Catherine Tate (Catherine Tate's Nan) 15/2

Olivia Colman was always a 'bridesmaid' at awards shows and now she can't stop winning since 'Broadchurch' has reinvigorated her career.

The others are there to make up the numbers with Jessica Hynes possibly the only one who could stop her.

Prediction? Olivia Colman in a cakewalk.

Comedy Programme ~

Would I Lie To You? 1/2
The Graham Norton Show 7/2
Charlie Brooker's Weekly Wipe 9/2
Stewart Lee's Comedy Vehicle 7/1

No idea why 'WILTY?' is odds-on. I assume there must be some Graham Norton fatigue. Only Ladbrokes and William Hill are playing here.

Seems to be what's the least abrasive show and they're all pretty grim and nasty. Stewart Lee is the type of comedian people say they like just to impress others.

Prediction? 'Stewart Lee's Comedy Vehicle' in an upset despite what the odds say.

Entertainment Programme ~

Strictly Come Dancing 'evens'
Ant and Dec's Saturday Night Takeaway 11/10
The Voice 9/1
Dynamo: Magician Impossible 10/1

Prediction? Shootout between the top two here. 'SCD' should likely come out on top though.

Entertainment Performance ~

Ant and Dec (Saturday Night Takeaway) 1/2
Leigh Francis (Celebrity Juice) 5/1
Graham Norton (The Graham Norton Show) 5/1
Claudia Winkleman (Strictly Come Dancing) 6/1

Makes me violently ill that Leigh Francis could win a competitive BAFTA. The film going public aren't stupid and generally rejected Keith Lemon. ITV's audience though haven't and he has thrived since his switch from Channel 4.

The praise for Claudia Winkleman is mystifying but it's probably a 'anything's better than Bruce Forsyth' type of kneejerk response.

Graham's won too many.

Prediction? Ant and Dec get a 'consolation' BAFTA with a win here.

Continuing Drama ~

EastEnders 2/5
Coronation Street 5/2
Casualty 9/1
Hollyoaks 14/1

'Hollyoaks' winning would be LOL awful. It's popular enough to have a devoted if stupid following who can't see how awful the show is. Poor old 'Emmerdale' suffering the indignity of not just being ignored for 'Casualty' but also fecking 'Hollyoaks'....Channel 4 'stuffing the ballot' is my guess.

Prediction? 'EastEnders'. Danny Dyer, whether you love him or hate him, has helped reignite the show's status even with 'Corrie' in the way.

Reality and Constructed Factual Show ~

I'm a Celebrity Get Me Out of Here 8/13
The Apprentice 10/3
The Undateables 7/2
The Island with Bear Grylls 9/1

Meh. Who knows?

Prediction? 'The Undateables'. Who really cares so why not?

Odds from Ladbrokes:

Serial Drama ~

Happy Valley 4/6
The Missing 2/1
Line of Duty 6/1
Peaky Blinders 8/1

Superficially 'Happy Valley' is the one to beat but this is a quirky category filled with surprise winners at the best of times.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Ac ... ama_Series

Prediction? ''Line of Duty' to cause a surprise. 'Happy Valley' will have acting wins but will lose here.

Digital Spy predictions:

Serial Drama: 'Happy Valley'.
Leading Actor: Toby Jones just ahead of Jason Watkins.
Leading Actress: Sarah Lancashire just ahead of Georgina Campbell.
Supporting Actor: James Norton.
Supporting Actress: Charlotte Spencer.
Comedy Series: 'The Detectorists'.
Comedy Actor: Tom Hollander.
Comedy Actress: Olivia Colman.
Reality & Constructed Factual: 'The Island with Bear Grylls'.
Entertainment Show: 'Ant and Dec's Saturday Night Takeaway'.

http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/tv/news/a64 ... 9aiz0zU9Eu

The Guardian's predictions:

Leading Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch.
Leading Actress: Keeley Hawes.
Supporting Actor: James Norton.
Supporting Actress: Gemma Jones.
Drama Serial: 'Happy Valley'.

http://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio ... best-actor
http://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio ... st-actress
http://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio ... best-drama

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Postby stereoman » Sat May 09, 2015 7:52 pm

There's been a move in the last hour or so in Leading Actor for...Jason Watkins.

Image

BAFTA do love a good biographical role. Poor Toby Jones. :no:

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Postby stereoman » Sun May 10, 2015 7:08 pm

The show started at 7pm so it's an hour's delay when it's shown on BBC One now.

BLECH!! Not looking great for me on the predictions front so far. Thought Ant and Dec would win one but lose the other but I got it the wrong way around! :unlucky:

Stephen Rea beats out James Norton and Ken Stott in Supporting Actor whilst Gemma Jones won in Supporting Actress.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-32215563

Benedict Cumberbatch and Olivia Colman haven't turned up!? :?

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Postby stereoman » Sun May 10, 2015 7:29 pm

Most of the winners have been odds-against barring 'Happy Valley' at 4/6 winning 'Drama Series'.

Wanted Matt Berry to win (anybody but Brendan O'Carroll really!) but I didn't back him. :no:

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Postby stereoman » Sun May 10, 2015 8:19 pm

This is the worst ever set of predictions that I've ever made. I zigged when I should have zagged. I never do get the TV BAFTAs right but getting NONE correct is inexplicable. :oops:

The money was right for Jason Watkins and so were snippets of money for other winners such as Georgina Campbell (!?) and 'The Island with Bear Grylls'. Somebody out there knew and bet accordingly.

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Postby nors » Mon May 11, 2015 8:02 am

It does look like word leaked out stereoman on a few winners, maybe an opportunity in the future on these type of markets?

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Postby stereoman » Mon May 11, 2015 11:26 am

Yep. Pretty much so it seems is to just 'follow the late money' and not think too hard about it all. I'm not saying they don't keep the winners secret at BAFTA but you generally don't bet on something like this unless you really do knew who has won.

As a TV watcher/snob, I'm mostly flummoxed by the results even though the wealth was spread around with one or two snubs (some welcome, some not so) here or there.

Oh well. A very painful lesson in both pride and money lost here. :sarcasm:

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