Britains Got Talent 2012

cbris78
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Postby cbris78 » Sun May 13, 2012 12:50 pm

It's not as easy as it used to be when they'd offer under/over markets on their scores but I think it's easier to nail down a winner early on. Harry was available at 10's in one place last year and widely available at 6's despite the fact he'd aced the Children in Need special like Kara the year before (although I was on Matt that year who did trade odds on and would of won but for a massive de-ramp).

Similar to X Factor there are the 'joke' acts which get kept around for a bit which leaves value in the elimination markets on the less well known/likeable celeb acts who don't have a decent fan base.

Also a quite profitable market is the 'Top Scorer' one as the bookies tend to order it by the celebs perceived overall ability which leaves value as they don't all do the same dance on a weekly basis and some are far easier to score highly in than others and some are easier for the females celebs than the males ones etc.

Be good if there's a bit of discussion on it as it never seems too popular on here though I guess that's as it clashes with X Factor.

...

Results from BGT btw if anyones interested...

Semi Final 1

Ashleigh & Pudsey – 50.0%

Only Boys Aloud – 30.4%

The Mend – 11.8%

Zipparah Tafari – 2.3%

Lauren Thalia – 1.8%

Rachel Knowland – 1.2%

The Jive Aces – 1.0%

Analiza Ching – 0.9%

United We Stand – 0.6%


Semi Final 2

Jonathan & Charlotte – 75.3%

Kai & Natalia – 6.2%

Paige Turley – 5.2%

Four Corners - 4.7%

Karizma Krew – 2.4%

Graham Blackledge – 1.9%

The Showbears – 1.8%

Cascade – 1.6%

Fish on Percussion – 0.9%


Semi Final 3

Loveable Rogues – 40.4%

Molly Rainford – 22.2%

Twist & Pulse Dance Co - 17.6%

Dennis Egel – 5.5%

Ashley Elliott – 4.9%

The Zimmers – 3.3%

Lucky – 2.7%

Area 51 – 2.2%

Honey Shazad – 1.2%


Semi Final 4

Sam Kelly – 26.8%

Malakai Paul – 25.2%

Nu Sxool – 20.0%

Be Minor – 9.7%

Brynolf & Ljung – 7.3%

Gatis Kandis – 6.5%

The Sugar Dandies – 2.8%

Beatrix Von Bourbon – 1.1%

Chica Latina – 0.6%


Semi Final 5

Ryan O’Shaughnessy – 42.3%

Aquabatique – 14.6%

Billy George – 11.0%

Callum Oakley – 9.0%

Hope Murphy – 7.6%

Face Team – 7.4%

Strictly Wheels – 3.5%

Martyn Crofts – 3.0%

Greig Stewart – 1.6%


Final

Ashleigh & Pudsey – 39.0%

Jonathan & Charlotte – 25.8%

Only Boys Aloud – 15.8%

Loveable Rogues – 5.7%

Ryan O’Shaughnessy – 4.8%

Molly Rainford – 2.8%

The Mend – 2.6%

Nu Sxool – 1.2%

Sam Kelly – 1.0%

Aquabatique – 0.9%

Kai & Natalia – 0.4%

Liverpool1985
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Postby Liverpool1985 » Sun May 13, 2012 8:07 pm

Interesting stuff Cbris. :)

The Dog walked it then.

So in strcitly do we see a Draw bias with the acts like Simon Cowells shows? And do the Judges usually make the 'right' decisions when saving acts or often send it to the Public Vote?

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cbris78
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Postby cbris78 » Sun May 13, 2012 8:45 pm

Yeah I'm surprised it wasn't a bit closer between 1st and 2nd and 3rd and 4th tbh.

...

The draw doesn't matter as much in Strictly as it isn't 100% public vote. They get points according to their position on the judges leaderboard e.g. when there's 10 couples the highest scoring couple will get 10 points, 2nd 9, 3rd 8 etc. Points are also awarded in the same way according to how well they do in the public vote. Both are then added together and they announce who the bottom 2 couples are.

The judges don't get to choose who goes between those 2 anymore, although there was never an option to send it to the public vote, lowest score just goes home now.

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Postby Liverpool1985 » Sun May 13, 2012 8:54 pm

AH ok mate. I think it's safe to say I will just be watching this year to get a feel for the show. See if the public and judges generally go with what I go with etc. As it looks like another never ending show I will hope to include from 2014 if all goes to plan I suppose. Maybe 2013 if I get overconfident.

Good news is I have just uncovered an amazing X-Factor Trend relating to eliminations which has previously gone unnoticed on my stats. No idea how I have never picked up on this TBH. Only 4 months as I can get going on the Factor lol.

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Postby Liverpool1985 » Mon May 14, 2012 9:22 pm

Heres something I didn't expect. The BGT Final 2012 trounced the number of Viewers for the 2011 X-Factor Final last year. First time BGT has outperformed X-Factor. Unless the X-Factor claws back the 5 Million Viewers it lost last year that is.

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Postby adamross » Mon May 14, 2012 9:50 pm

Pretty easy win for Pudsey then.

Re the other shows, I would say if you can make a success of BGT and X Factor then you will probably succeed with the other specials.

Having said that, I will learn from the current series of the Voice (that's if they take it to another series). I backed a number of the contestants for the outright on the high street. To make a decent profit I have had to lay them in the Group stages - so far, so good but it hasn't been a risk free nor a lucrative strategy. My main bets are on the Matt Cardle like singer - David J and also Becky. Expected both to tumble in price but hasnt happened and there are 2 strong favs in the other groups - red on both of those at present.

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Postby Liverpool1985 » Mon May 14, 2012 10:04 pm

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Last edited by Liverpool1985 on Mon May 21, 2012 4:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby adamross » Mon May 14, 2012 10:16 pm

Wow you do like your stats :) and I fully take your point.

Bring on the Euros and X Factor!!

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