X Factor 2009 (series 6)

Systemsman
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X Factor 2009 (series 6)

Postby Systemsman » Mon Sep 28, 2009 8:28 pm

Well its up and running again and we are now ino the serious bit - the last 24.

Even at this stage one or two bet stand out.

Oddchecker.com has the following:

Gender of Winner 8/13 male

Top 25 and over
Danyl Johnson (5/4)
Olly Murs (6/4)
Jamie Archer (11/4)

Top Boy
Joe McElderry (11/8)
Lloyd Daniels (13/8)

Top Girl
Lucie Jones (1)
Stacey Soloman (11/10)

Top Group
John and Edward Grimes (6/4) (no no no!!)
Kandy Rain (7/4)

The winner should be in this list of nine somewhere but will reserve judgement until I have listened to them all again on Youtube and looked at a few fan sites (will come back on this).

Outright winer of X factor 2009
Danyl Johnson 9/2 Betfred
Lucie Jones 9/2 Coral
Stacey Soloman 5 Coral
Olly Murs 6 Stan James
Jamie Archer 10 Stan James

The 25 and over group looks strong this year for the possible winner.


Recomended bet: Gender of Winner 8/13 male.

Ther are a number of strong male contenders this year with the females not looking so strong (see list above).

More later.

avlfcdev
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Postby avlfcdev » Mon Sep 28, 2009 11:02 pm

Gotta disagree with top girl here:

Lucie and Stacey are very one dimensional and 6/1 for the talented Rachel Adedeji is way too big in my book.
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Postby jaydubs » Tue Sep 29, 2009 5:56 am

Is that the girl that fell over cos I was doubled over for 20 mins after that

Systemsman
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Who will win?

Postby Systemsman » Tue Sep 29, 2009 9:16 pm

Well I have now had time to look at the leading contestants and a poll or two.

My best opinion at this stage is to look at the Youtube clicks/views (as of last night) for each of the main contenders in th last 24 and use it as a poll!

1. Daniel Johnson 7,511.502 (33,101 ratings for the video) 5/1 Totesport.
Must not overplay his hand too early! (a bit overconfident but can change this). The one to beat.

2. Stacy Soloman 5,754,001 (21,000 ratings). 5/1 Coral.
Essex girl. Looks good, Good voice but can she stay the course? Will do well.

3. Joseph McEldery 3,894,760 (12,559 ratings). 16/1 Stan James.
South Shields lad. Looks good, great voice. Will be populer with the young female voters - will no doubt get into last 5. Good Each Way bet. May give Daniel Johnson a run for his money.

4. Jamie Archer 3,311,711 (17,017 ratings). 9/1 Stan James.
Could go a long way and the surprsie hit of the show? Different to all others.

Others.
Duane Lamonte 2,879,260 views (8,551 ratings). 100/1 Coral.
100/1 outsider!

Lucie Jones 2,191,300 views (9,932 ratings). 9/2 Fav Labrokes.
Welsh girl. Good looks and nice voice but again can she stay the course? Market Fav not born out by YouTube views!

Elthan Boroian 845,571 views (4,192 ratings). 40/1 Totesport
American with good looks and a good voice. Not to be overlooked and may go a long way. Good possible Each Way bet.


AOL poll
1. Daniel Johnson
2. Lucie Jones
3. Stacy Solomn
Jamie Archer
Lloyd Daniels

Well its a bit early to suggest the winner but I will take the risk if we want to capture a god price.

Recommended bet:

Daniel Johnson to win X Factor 2009 at 5/1 Tote


Savers on
Lucie Jones 9/2 Ladbrokes
Joe McEldery 16/1 Stan James
Elthan Boroian 40/1 Totesport (best Each Way value bet)

Daniel Jones looks and sings like the finished article. He is by far the most populer on YouTube and in the few polls so far (just beats Lucie Jones on AOL poll). He must avoid being over confident (which I think he will do after the judges comments which he will have viewed) and not peek too early - if and only if he can do this he stands an outstanding chance to win.

Now what do you think?

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Postby Dammo Qwirky » Tue Sep 29, 2009 10:15 pm

Danyl is overrated in my eyes. I dont find him all that likable. Im not sure whether people will really get behind him. Viewers like to see the journey, he will have to improve a lot to be on a par with others.

I like the look of Joseph, may be somewot short in terms of quality but should improve and has the likeability factor. U cant get ew at 16 btw. That price is win only.

Lucie is similar to Joseph in terms of likeability and voice. Theyll be the household faves once we get into it. Assuming they get thru.
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Postby avlfcdev » Tue Sep 29, 2009 11:06 pm

Systemsman - Elthan Boroian doesn't make it to the live shows so you could get 1000/1 and it would be bad value.
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Postby Bobs Beauts » Wed Sep 30, 2009 10:49 pm

have to corrrect you there avl.... he does make it through to the last 16. Each mentor chooses a fourth act for there category so I've been well informed by very gd friends of an act that makes it through ( naming no names of course )

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Postby avlfcdev » Thu Oct 01, 2009 12:46 pm

Interesting Bob - my info was taen from here:

http://xfactor-updates.com/category/2009/
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Postby willieboy » Thu Oct 01, 2009 4:57 pm

There`s a stand out bet here for me.

As detailed above...there are very good girls, very good over 25`s, and good young males with the likeability factor.

However, the groups are total pants and will soon be voted off....

so the bet is Louis Walsh to be first mentor out.

This is the bet of the year to my mind and suggest you take 6/5
while still available....reckon this will be odds-on shortly.

Ok.....so you have to wait a few weeks to collect....use winnings for
Xmas drinks etc!!

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Postby fairfranco » Sat Oct 03, 2009 7:43 pm

Am I being really synical or are some of these acts complete jokes?

I've not watched any of this series and now i've put it on and there's been some pretty poor singing and the bands especially seem awful.

Who are the 2 Irish guys in the short trousers? that was woeful and they looked rediculous.

hmmmm...maybe just not a program for me

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Postby judoman » Sun Oct 04, 2009 10:14 pm

Would love to know what the best price on Danni Minogue being the winning judge was (best price NOW 13/10) because she look looks sure to go close for several reasons:

1. The groups are rubbish and unless there is a huge male vote for the ex-strippers they look certain to go out early.

2. Cheryl Cole has selected a ropey line-up of cutesy little boys. The camp, emotional scottish Rikki looks certain to alienate, surely a 16 year old isn't gonna win and the geordie lad is likeable but is smaller than Cheryl.

3. Danyl looks sure to disappoint having 'peaked' with his first audition and is gonna get found out and the other two look poor.

I can't choose between the 3 under 25 girls for a bet, although personal preference is for Rachel A. who has a great voice and at 23 on BF is worth a dabble.

However, Danni as winning manager looks a solid investment and she could easily end up with 2 of the final 3. The only problem with the bet is the likelihood of some shocking song choices (as in 2008) which might harm her team.

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Postby Dammo Qwirky » Sun Oct 04, 2009 10:32 pm

The whole programme for me was summed up perfectly by Louis Walsh the other week when he saw John and Edward and said "the innocent kids will buy their records". We all know it, but this is nothing to do with talent, its all about who can make them the most money.

All of the groups are brutal. Theres no real outstanding talent this year, I think it will all come down to whos the slickest, who is marketed the best, who has the sweetest smile and the teen girl votes.
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