WSOP Main Event Betting

fairfranco
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Postby fairfranco » Mon Jul 13, 2009 4:38 pm

Great pick on Phil Ivy Andy, gutted I missed that 150/1 shot!

looks to be going strong. :hope:

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Postby Andy4Fingers » Mon Jul 13, 2009 5:49 pm

Unfortunately mate I made one of the cardinal gambling mistakes. Because for some reason I didn't think 150/1 was a big enough price I added Elfsborg to beat Orgryte at 1/3 (Elfsborg won 3-0), A Frankie Dettori horse that ran and won on the day I placed the bet @ 2/1 and Lancashire to beat Hampshire in the semi final of the Friends Provident @ 8/13, and Hampshire duly murdered Lancs!!!!. Knowing about Lancy's semi final record over the last decade I still can't figure out what made me do that.
I don't know if to support him now cos he's a great player and it'd justify the tip, or pray he doesn't win cos the payout would've been just under 10 grand! From what I've read he's having a great main event and I reckon the 10/1 available could still be a good shout.

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Postby stereoman » Mon Jul 13, 2009 6:26 pm

AH man! Feel for ya. I had Lancashire to beat Hampshire a couple of weeks back as well. :(

10/1 is very skinny though at this stage and there's at least 10 in the frame with bigger chipstacks who can make a run at this ahead of Phil Ivey.

I'll be interested to see if any other bookie's wiling to price up the WSOP Main Event and if they do play down to 63 then that's a more assessable field to put some odds up for.

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Postby Andy4Fingers » Mon Jul 13, 2009 7:24 pm

The thing for me about Ivey is that he's just so good when he turns it on. The longer he plays against opponents the better his read on them and therefore the better he plays. Ivey's strength is his ability to know what his opponent is thinking and it gets better with time. He's probably played against 70% of the remaining field so I still think 10/1 is decent. Ivey's biggest threat is himself, when his interest wains at the start of tournaments or he thinks the tournament is unimportant, so now he's within touching distance of being world champion he'll be going all out for this.

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Postby Andy4Fingers » Tue Jul 14, 2009 8:30 am

At the end of day 6 there are 64 players left. Ivey has the 3rd highest chip stack (6.4 million) and looks good to make the final table. If I was pricing up the winner now I'd have him around 3/1, and somewhere just under even money to make the final table.
To say I'm annoyed at myself would be a gross understatement. Oh well, that's gambling I suppose :P

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Postby fairfranco » Tue Jul 14, 2009 8:35 am

Andy I can't feel for you on that one!

you felt 150/1 wasn't enough so added a 1/3 selection and an 8/13 selection?!

surely you must have stuck a couple of quid on the 150/1 Ivey?!?!

:no: :no: :no:

that'll learn ya lad! :console:

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Postby Andy4Fingers » Tue Jul 14, 2009 8:50 am

you felt 150/1 wasn't enough so added a 1/3 selection and an 8/13 selection?!
I know, I know, it's just that after adding the 3 extra selections it made the bet almost 1000/1 and I thought the 3 looked really strong. I won't make that mistake again :(

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Postby stereoman » Tue Jul 14, 2009 3:23 pm

There's a thin line between genius and insanity as they say! If it'd have come in, he'd be a genius but it didn't so he's insane! :P

Day 7's odds from Blue Square:

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Postby stereoman » Wed Jul 15, 2009 4:15 pm

27 left and Phil Ivey is 4th in chips! :shock:

Blue Square's odds as they get from 27 to 9 tonight on Day 8's action. Remember that the final table is in November like last year.

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Postby stereoman » Thu Jul 16, 2009 6:00 am

Phil Ivey through to the November Nine!

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Postby stereoman » Sun Nov 08, 2009 9:12 am


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Postby Andy4Fingers » Thu Jul 01, 2010 11:34 pm

It's hard to believe this was a year ago! I've just had a look at doing the same bets on Ivey again this time around but the bookies seem to have caught on this year, making him a best price of 20/1 to reach the final table.
I reckon that's shorter than Danny Devito's little brother so I'll be looking elsewhere.

There's three top class tournament players who stand out for me at their respective prices to make the final table:

Daniel Negreanu @ 66/1 (Ladbrokes) - Class act, top quality pro and has over 40 cashes at the WSOP, winning over $3 million in prize money in the process. 2nd place in the WSOPE in October highlights his massive talent and 66s seems more than fair.

Bertrand Grospellier @ 100/1 (Ladbrokes) - After switching from video games to poker he's been a huge success, with a constantly switched on attitude to the game. He holds the world record for most sit'n'go tables played in one hour and finished a respectable 122nd in last year's WSOP main event after actually leading for a spell.

JC Tran @ 100/1 (SportingBet) - To my mind one of the best tournament players ever with 2 WSOP bracelets and 5 WPT final table appearances to his name. He also finished just outside the top 100 in last years main event.

I'll be backing all three as SINGLES!!!!!! and hopefully one of them will perform around the level we know they can.

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