UK General Election

Will8ace
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UK General Election

Postby Will8ace » Sun Mar 20, 2005 1:05 pm

I would like to know what everybody's thoughts are on the up-coming UK General Election. There is a lot of talk around at the moment about another Labour 'landslide', but i'm not so sure.

I think we will see an election determined by a very well organised tactical voting campaign. I still think this tactical voting will result in a Labour victory, however, it will not be a landslide.

I think the Tories will gain a lot of seats back from Labour, maybe 45-55, and the Lib Dems will also increase their seats to about 70-75ish. This will have a devastating effect on Tony Blair's leadership of the 'New' Labour party and he will probably have to resign about six months after the election, just in time for a nice family Christmas.

So what does everybody else think, from a betting point of view?

Will H

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Postby Dammo Qwirky » Sun Mar 20, 2005 1:30 pm

I think Blair only has the intention to win the election to have won three. There is no way he will see the three terms thru, and even if he does none of u will be able to find this post to laugh at me getting it wrong!

Blair has pretty much done the things he wanted to, there are just a few of his feck ups to correct b4 he goes again.

This election will be far from a landslide. There will be a mixture of protest/tactical voting and abstentions which will reduce their seats considerably. There is no doubt they will still win, as even tho Conservatives are the one with all the ideas, labour end up nicking them and rehashing them. The probem is that too many people are sceptical of the tories so will end up voting for one of the rubbish parties like the Lib Dems. The votes labour have lost will be split around between the other parties, so no one really comes out a winner. Having less of a majority will mean they will be less able to steamroller any legislation thru tho.

Saw some bloke being interviewed on TV earlier who said he thought many labour voters would only vote if they needed to, and not if the seat was safe. Hence a good value bet may be on a lower turnout. There are many people out there who think politicians are all the same. I havent heard how much technology will be used in the general election, ie whether people can still only vote in the ballot box or by post, so research is needed.

The one thing which is a bit unpredictable is if a similar thing to Madrid bombing happens here in the run up to the elections, attempting to influence the result. I am sure the extremists will try, but hopefully our intelligence services will foil anything they attempt. They are the best in the world by far.

How many seats do u think each party will win?

Will8ace
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Postby Will8ace » Sun Mar 20, 2005 2:03 pm

In my opinion the intelligence services may plant one!

I agree with you, I think there will be an interesting betting market developing over the next few weeks.

Labour 320ish
Cons 220ish
Lib Dems 70-75ish

Do you think Labour will get 320 seats?

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Postby Dammo Qwirky » Sun Mar 20, 2005 2:29 pm

Controversial!

I think labour will be borderline on the 330 winning post. Thing to remember with a lot of labour voters is they will vote for the party no matter wot as most hate the tories and will do anything to keep them from power. Think this campaign could get a bit dirty as labour will do anything to cling on to power.

Wouldnt disagree with yer figures too much altho I think maybe the tories will get a few more. They are gaining momentum all the time with an announcement every day about summat or other. It is a bit obvious but they are certainly the most motivated party at the moment.

Unless there are measures introduced to arrest voter apathy, I think this will be a record low turnout in the low to mid 50% region. I've got 45-59% covered so if it falls in that range I will be in profit. Also bought the tories seats on the spreads at 195 a while back.

Will8ace
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Postby Will8ace » Sun Mar 20, 2005 2:33 pm

You haven't lived in Northern Ireland for 20 odd years!

I agree with you totally regarding the turnout. I think students could potentially shaft Labour over top-up fees by voting Lib Dem, this will change the political landscape a little, I hope!

Good luck with your bets. :D
Last edited by Will8ace on Sun Mar 20, 2005 2:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Dammo Qwirky
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Postby Dammo Qwirky » Sun Mar 20, 2005 2:40 pm

So if either of us suddenly disappear off the forum for a while, u know wot may have happened to us!

A mixture of students, young ethnics and disenchanted voters will keep the turn out low. And thats before u take into account any disruption due to extremists. That said it could really stoke the numbers of people voting. AH the beautiful nature of uncertainty in betting!

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Postby giggsey » Sun Mar 20, 2005 3:38 pm

3 things you need to remember about politics

1. you CANT TRUST the conservatives
2. you CANT TRUST labour
3. the lib dems WILL NEVER get in

so your left with 2 choices labour or conservatives and based on a recent poll only 38 percent or summat ike that know who michael howard is and 98 percent know who tony blair is now this isnt a basis to work out wh will win but if you look at both parties key election pledges they are both essentialy the same so my vote it doesnt matter wether the conservatives or labour get in the country will end up in the same state.

LABOUR WILL WIN BY THE ROUGHLY SAME MAJORITY AS THEY WON BY LAST TIME AS THE EXTRA VOTES THE LIB DEMS WILL GET WILL HAVE COME FROM CONSERVATIVE DESERTERS.

versatile
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Postby versatile » Sun Mar 20, 2005 4:01 pm

Interesting you talk about trust, among the people I work with, I increasingly get the feeling that a large number of those that know Tony Blare distrust him and also his wife. The disreputable human rights laws, cronyism, and his push to get among the Brussels mob,who contain some of the most corrupt politians in the world could make people desert Labour in large numbers. He could in fact be the largest negative they have. Just an observation
Versatile

P.S. I think the Lib Dems love of the E.U. would prevent many Conservatives voting for them

Will8ace
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Postby Will8ace » Sun Mar 20, 2005 4:17 pm

Good observation Versatile.

Tony's wife is a human rights lawyer of some repute. There must have been some interesting discussions in their private appartment in Downing Street oven the Iraq war and Guantanamo debacles. One would have liked to have been a fly on the wall. :wink:

The Tories will win the 2010 election with Malcolm Rifkind at the helm, defo. :shock:

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Postby Dammo Qwirky » Sun Mar 20, 2005 4:36 pm

No one will vote for rifkind! He will never be leader!

Will8ace
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Postby Will8ace » Sun Mar 20, 2005 4:54 pm

Don't you mean dear leader, come on Dammo. Have you ever heard of the Bilderberg Group?

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Postby giggsey » Sun Mar 20, 2005 5:51 pm

as much as the lib dems are bonkers many conservative deserters would rather give them their vote than see labours majority rise

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