Value, a subjective matter

steveb65
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Value, a subjective matter

Postby steveb65 » Sat Oct 14, 2017 4:47 pm

''There is no value in a loser'' as the old maxim goes. I tend to err towards this advice when considering selections. My reasoning is because of certain mathematical laws that everyone is aware of but seldom follow due to the dangling carrot of big price, big value. Is it really value? Consider the analogy of your going to get 5000/1 odds if you have a bare knucke bout ...in the blue corner is you and in the red corner ten opponents !! How do you fancy your chances 100/1?..10/1 ? However you look at it your not on an intelligent wager here.
Its not just risk over reward either as you have to consider turnover ..the second maxim is a mathematical law '' Probability is governed by neither time or frequency'', now a famous professor stated this and made what we call now the roulette wheel to demonstrate this law to students. At the time before it was borrowed and reincarnated for use as a gambling element it never had a zero just red and black numbers. This mathematician proved that odds only prove their worth in the VERY long term. Although unusual there were instances of just red or black being produced 30+ turns of the wheel and thats on a supposed EVENS shot !! So using that example how would genuine 2/1 shots fare, or 4/1 ?? One would expect 33% and 20% respectively and you would get that...but only eventually with inevitable losing runs in between which will only increase if you choose to be on longer odds. So really discovering value is a very emotive subject and you have to factor that in with what your long or short term goals are. I run a little thread on 'obscure' trainer stats and i use a scoring system to what simply scores the highest. In terms of their real odds this score rarely alters their realistic chance but merely adds some extra info to some of the field. For instance i have GARTH ROCKET in the 7.45 as highest score. I believe it to be around 10/1 but its showing 28/1. Some would say wow VALUE but a 9% vs 3.5% differential, is not a figure that would persuade me to consider it a viable wager....now a 50% chance offering 2/1.. now thats what i call an opportunity, something that is offering both frequency and profit, and that in a nutshell is the 'goldilocks zone' of speculative wagers and where the true essence of value hides. ( in my humble opinion of course).
Scratching a living on the great imponderable .... :hope:

Avocado Racing
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Re: Value, a subjective matter

Postby Avocado Racing » Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:22 pm

I never rule a horse in or out as a selection based on ''value'' and ''big odds''. I go through my selection process and the price is the last thing I check. I rule some selections out based on prices being too low and some other criteria, if I think the price is tight, but never the other way. I don't think this is the mathematically optimal strategy but it has proven to be fruitful. Looking for a price and value can ''cloud'' the process of picking winners, I know tipsters who ignore all horses under 8/1 when looking through race cards but for me this means you aren't picking the strongest fancy in the race they are forcing the case for some horses due to there price. This works for for some but it isn't for me but what works for some doesn't work for others thats why we don't all tip the same horses!

Robmull
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Re: Value, a subjective matter

Postby Robmull » Thu Oct 26, 2017 6:03 pm

Hi Steve,

Interesting thoughts from both yourself and Avocado Racing.

As you will be aware from our previous discussions, I am a follower of ‘value’ and would not consider placing a bet if I had doubts that my selection was being offered at odds which overestimated it’s chance of winning.

This does not mean that I only back outsiders, far from it, as value can be theoretically found in every price band from odds on to 1000/1, albeit as you rightly state that the resultant strike rate at lower odds should be higher than for outsiders, providing of course that the punter is actually achieving value in reality.

In fact, one of my most profitable strategies is based on backing value selections in UK Group and Listed turf flat races for older horses at odds of 3/1, or shorter, which currently has a strike rate of over 50% and a ROI in excess of 75% - unfortunately there aren’t may of these opportunities during the course of a season.

However, by backing genuine value selections at a mix of prices, plus having confidence in your strategy and patience to keep going even when in the midst of one of the inevitable losing runs, value seekers should achieve a profit in the long run.

All the best.

Rob.

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Re: Value, a subjective matter

Postby Shrews » Thu Oct 26, 2017 9:58 pm

The biggest problem with the value strategy is that you've got to be able to work out what is value before you can spot it

Example (highest score is the most likely winner):

A very simplistic marks out of 10 for Course, Distance, Going

Horse A - 5 + 6 + 7 = 18
Horse B - 5 + 6 + 4 = 15
Horse C - 5 + 6 + 12 = 23

It looks as if 23 is the winner, but there could be value in all three depending what the price is. However, that 'value' doesn't mean one jot if you've cocked your scores up!

The first lesson to anyone starting out is to interpret the form correctly. Once you can do that then you can interpret value correctly. But there's no point using value as a strategy unless you've learnt to read the form. There is no vice-versa.

1. Learn to read the form
2. Learn to interpret value

Too many people don't master the first one before they attempt the second. Then of course there's always the third point

3. Maintaining discipline of when to bet and not to bet. Too many of us struggle with it and for me this is the biggest factor that causes people to lose. Don't bet when tired, stressed, bored, angry, drunk, feeling ill, in a rush etc, it's almost certainly going to affect the reading of the form and the interpretation of value.

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Re: Value, a subjective matter

Postby Robmull » Fri Oct 27, 2017 10:57 am

I agree with your thoughts Shrews.

Some punters have an unerring instinct for finding value, whilst others follow Systems and strategies which regularly find value bets, despite the fact that the punter does not make a conscious decision regarding the prices on offer.

However, many serious bettors have a method to calculate the percentage chance for their selections, which can then be compared with the prices that are on offer and whilst none of these methods are 100% accurate, they can be considered to do the job if the punter is able to secure consistent long term profits.

My method is to deploy the VALUE CALCULATOR, which I will admit is still a work in progress project, but is proving profitable to follow when used to assess better class races (as yet untested in class 4 events and below).

Profitable Horse Racing Betting System – Introducing the VALUE CALCULATOR
https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412142

What really concerns me is the number of punters who assume that backing a runner at bigger odds without any idea of the true odds for the horse winning the race, guarantees that they are securing value - their mantra usually goes something like this “I have swerved the favourite as he is too short in the betting and have backed X at 33/1 as at that price he must offer value”.

All too often, the favourite is actually underestimated by the betting market, whilst horse X that is available at inticing odds of 33/1 (2.9% chance) actually has just a 1.5% chance of winning and should therefore be swerved unless available at odds greater than 66/1.

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Re: Value, a subjective matter

Postby Archon » Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:22 am

To me "value" in a bet is not mathematics. You can apply all the mathematical models you want, be an expert in the law of probabilities, be able to perform complex integral calculus. Nothing can give you the real value better than proper judgement. All the numbers of the world cannot tell the real story of a match. What matters is knowledge, wisdom and the ability to combine bits and pieces of a puzzle to one coherent image.

All the numbers of the world cannot give you the physical and/or psychological status of a team that may be winning but is on the verge of collapsing due to fatigue. You can only see that by paying attention to how the players play on the field. Having inside information for issues that tear a team apart on the inside while on the outside they look like one solid unbreakable body is more valuable than mathematical models. Receiving information on injuries, absences and external issues that can upset the balance is more valuable than statistics.

Of course you need the wisdom to put all the aforementioned into perspective and the judgement to determine the game where these aspects will have the greatest effect and lead to a result that no one would have expected. No one but you. This is what defines "value". The rest are just tools to use.

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