IPL Betting Discussion 2017

Andy4Fingers
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Re: IPL Betting Discussion 2017

Postby Andy4Fingers » Thu Apr 20, 2017 8:33 am

Kings XI v Mumbai

Bet 25: 4 pts, over 14.5 Sixes hit @ 4/5 (BetBright)
Bet 26: 1.5 pt, Rohit Sharma​ top Mumbai batsman @ 9/2 (Paddy Power)


Mumbai have started this IPL so well and it would be a surprise to me if Kings XI were able to win here. KXIP always seem like a team lurching from high to low to me, from Vohra's outstanding innings last time out to the combined 24 runs their overseas batsmen put on in the same match.
Rohit Sharma has recovered from his injury now. He hit some form in the last game with 40 from 29 and it's a matter of time to me until he swaps batting position with Jos Buttler. Even at 4 he is more than capable of changing a game and his top batsman odds seem more than fair.
Indore has seen quite a few sixes hit in the 2 matches played here up to now - AB hit 9 in one innings and Maxwell has hit 4 in both games - so I think the big hitters can go again. If Sharma is on form or Buttler or Pollard get chance to let loose the line could look decent value and we've already seen KXIP hit sixes here this season so overs seems the way to go.
Current IPL betting discussion thread tipping stats after bet 31:
3.8 pts profit, -1.33 pts LSP, 5.3% ROI, 35.5% S/R.

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Re: IPL Betting Discussion 2017

Postby nellberg1 » Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:50 am

Best bowling attack in the comp vs the worst today, so I think KKR should be up to winning this one 👍

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Re: IPL Betting Discussion 2017

Postby nors » Fri Apr 21, 2017 7:18 am

What is the best bet of the match in your opinion ? The 1.77 for the win?

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Re: IPL Betting Discussion 2017

Postby nellberg1 » Fri Apr 21, 2017 9:16 am

What is the best bet of the match in your opinion ? The 1.77 for the win?
1.77 is a little short for my liking. Gujarat sometimes get off to a flier so if they batted first you'd be looking at getting a price on KKR after say 4 overs then Narine and the other spinner (kuldeep /chawla/Shakib) will start to strangle the innings.

The bet I've done is KKR to have the highest scoring batsman. They've won that market in every game, they have solid batsman who like to bat deep into the innings and their bowlers take wickets all the way through the innings. It was 10/11 when I placed it, assume its something similar now.

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Re: IPL Betting Discussion 2017

Postby Andy4Fingers » Sat Apr 22, 2017 8:00 am

Pune v Hyderabad

Bet 27: 2 pts, Hyderabad highest opening partnership @ 4/5 (Various)
Bet 28: 2 pts, Hyderabad to hit most sixes @ 11/10 (Stan James)
Bet 29: 2 pts, Manoj Tiwary top Pune batsman @ 18/1 (Betfair)


I think the stable opening pair of Warner and Dhawan look the pick to score more than Pune's likely combination of Rahane and Tripathi. Rahane has lost a little form recently with an average of just under 15 over his last 4 games, and while Tripathi has 2 scores over 30 in his last 2 innings they have come against the 2 weakest bowling attacks in the league.
Warner meanwhile scored only 4 last time out but that is the exception rather than the rule for him, and with Dhawan hitting a timely 70 they look the form opening pair.
As for the sixes market I think if Warner does find his form again, and with Kane Williamson seemingly having been given free reign to bat (he hit 5 sixes in his last innings) any cameo from the likes of Yuvraj or Henriques should see Hyderabad score most sixes. I've said it before Pune are a ground stroke side at the top of their order - Rahane and Smith will be expected to score the lion's share of their runs and for the most part they score in fours rather than sixes. At odds against Hyderabad rate a back.
Finally Manoj Tiwary's price to top score for Pune with Betfair is silly. He's had scores of 27, 31 and 40* in his past 3 innings and may come in as high as number 4 so I was expecting 8/1 tops. At more than double that he's a must back.

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Current IPL betting discussion thread tipping stats after bet 31:
3.8 pts profit, -1.33 pts LSP, 5.3% ROI, 35.5% S/R.

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Re: IPL Betting Discussion 2017

Postby Andy4Fingers » Sat Apr 22, 2017 8:25 am

Mumbai v Delhi

Bet 30: 5 pts, Mumbai to beat Delhi @ 8/13 (Various)
Bet 31: 3 pts, Mumbai highest 6 over score @ 4/5 (Stan James)


Mumbai have been the stand out team thus far in the IPL and look a good bet to carry on their form with a win against inconsistent Delhi. Buttler is hitting form and showed tremendous power in the last match, plus with Sharma itching to get a good knock in after being out of form and the emergence of Rana they look too strong for Delhi.
Parthiv Patel seems to have grasped that he needs to increase his strike rate and with Buttler always willing to go quickly and Rana keen to show his power Mumbai also look good in the highest 6 over score market. Delhi open with Billings and Samson, and though both are capable of starting quickly (Samson in particular has done much better than I thought he would) they'll be up against Slinga Malinga who will be desperate to put up a good showing after leaking runs since he arrived from international duty.
Current IPL betting discussion thread tipping stats after bet 31:
3.8 pts profit, -1.33 pts LSP, 5.3% ROI, 35.5% S/R.

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Re: IPL Betting Discussion 2017

Postby nellberg1 » Sat Apr 22, 2017 8:53 am

RPSG vs Sunrisers is a game I've struggled to find a strong bet in. A lot of the prices look about right. Williamson MOTM at 14's compared to 8/1 everywhere else looks worth a small interest. I agree that Sunrisers msot sixes should be odds on, only 1 place offering odds against.

RPSG - https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412521

SRH - https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412518

MI vs DD could see a bit of a shock. Delhi are inconsistent but on their day they can beat anyone. I'd like to see someone a bit more dynamic than Angelo Matthews coming in at 6 though. Mumbai have hit most sixes in all of thier games so far, 4/5 for them to continue that looks a bit big. Morris to be MOTM at 14's also looks worthy of a small interest.

MI - https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412398

DD - https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412392

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Re: IPL Betting Discussion 2017

Postby nellberg1 » Sun Apr 23, 2017 6:31 am

Gujarat Lions vs Kings XI Punjab in the early game today. 2 of the world bowling attack in the league so I'll be looking to find a way to incorporate that view in my bets. May be going overs on total match runs / total match sixes depending on the prices. McCullum opening for Gujarat vs Amla for Kings XI should ensure Gujarat got off to a quicker start, they're 10/11 for "highest 1st 6 overs"

Gujarat Lions : https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412493

Kings XI Punjab : https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412354

Kolkata Knight Riders vs Royal Challengers Bangalore is the late game today. Surprised that KKR are even money here. They slipped up last time out but have been really consistent so far. RCB have the "star" names in Kolhi, Gayle and ABDV (if fit) but KKR are a well balanced team who cover pretty much all bases. On home soil I'd have them as slight favourites, so evens looks more than fair.

KKR : https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412520

RCB : https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412494

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Re: IPL Betting Discussion 2017

Postby Andy4Fingers » Sun Apr 23, 2017 7:30 am

Kolkata v Bangalore

Bet 32: 5pts, Bangalore to hit most sixes @ 4/5 (Stan James)
Bet 33: 3pts, Chris Gayle to hit most sixes @ 4/1 (bet365)
Bet 34: 1pt, Chris Gayle to be man of the match @ 8/1 (Stan James)


Eden Gardens may well be more batsman friendly than in previous seasons but it's still a huge ground (the largest in India if I recall correctly) and it takes a special kind of batsman to clear the ropes here. As such I think Bangalore should be backed to hit the most sixes as their stellar batting line up is the best in the tournament in my opinion. With AB due back today, Gayle hitting form and Kohli well recovered from injury they have three batsmen who can easily hit the biggest shots. Gayle in particular showed in his last match that he's back to being the monster hitter we all love after struggling for form, and the 4/1 on him to out blast the rest looks too tempting to pass up, as does the 8s on him to be man of the match as a Gayle-storm generally results in him being MotM. Kolkata have only out-sixed the opposition once in the 3 games they've played here so up against Bangalore, and without Chris Lynn, I'm siding with Bangalore.
Current IPL betting discussion thread tipping stats after bet 31:
3.8 pts profit, -1.33 pts LSP, 5.3% ROI, 35.5% S/R.

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Re: IPL Betting Discussion 2017

Postby nellberg1 » Mon Apr 24, 2017 12:06 pm

MI vs RPSG today, just done a stats blog and MI have won the 6's market 7/7, with RPSG losing it 5/6 so that'll do for me today!

My blog on the IPL so far : https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412600

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Re: IPL Betting Discussion 2017

Postby nellberg1 » Tue Apr 25, 2017 10:24 am

RCB host the Sunrisers today. Stats on this one haven't got the same "solid" look as yesterday. RCB have been super slow in PP's so far this season, but the Sunrisers are also pretty slow up top early. It might be worth a small interest for SRH to have the highest 1st 6 overs at evens but I won't be piling in. The stat regarding the Sunrisers was that they're very good at home (4/4) but have struggled on the road (0/3). That would mean backing RCB at 5/6 here, which I certainly don't think is value so it may be a case of looking into other markets.

The pitches have been slow at the Chinnaswamy this season, so a grafter like Henriques could be suited to the conditions. He has 3 50's already this season so 11/2 looks a big price. It would be better if he batted 3 but Williamson looks to have that spot locked in atm. Again no great conviction with this one, just a hunch and only small stakes. Good luck if you're having a bet.

RCB pre-season thoughts : https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412600

SRH pre-season thoughts : https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412518

mid-season thoughts : https://www.olbg.com/blogs/post.php?id=412600

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Re: IPL Betting Discussion 2017

Postby ROHAN1 » Tue Apr 25, 2017 8:31 pm

just had a quick look at the betting for tomorows game and i have to say one bet stood out straight away,sunil narine to score over 0.5 6s is 11/10,seems very generous to me.surely if he last an over that bet is won.

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