Cashing out when fortunes change during game

someguy4321
Group 3 Class
Tips
Posts: 84
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2014 11:00 pm

Cashing out when fortunes change during game

Postby someguy4321 » Mon Jan 18, 2016 2:57 am

Let's say you back your team to win an ODI (One day international - 50 overs) and they're favs to win the game and playing at home. If they're batting second and chasing a big total and they lose 2-3 key wickets at the half-way stage, and the opposition team is growing in confidence (i.e. their fans are going crazy, their morale is boosted, more aggressive in the field etc) would you:

1. Cash-out your bet to safeguard losses but forgo any wins?

Or

2. Maintain faith in your bet and accept the loss (if it happens) and hope to win the bet?

I cashed out a bet that turned out to be a winner and got my money back but missed out on the winnings. Is there a gambler's general consensus on this?

Very frustrating!!!

Andy4Fingers
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1809
Joined: Thu Oct 12, 2006 11:00 pm
Location: Manchester

Postby Andy4Fingers » Mon Jan 18, 2016 9:20 am

I think the general consensus is that whenever you cash out your team will make a miraculous comeback and whenever you don't they'll be awful - at least that's how it works for me :lol:
I remember backing the West Indies ante post to win the T20 world cup in 2012. I was convinced they'd win and I'd backed them at 10/1 with what was, at the time, one of the largest stakes I'd ever placed. Sri Lanka beat them easily in the group but I thought things would be different when they met again in the final - every team has an off day. By the end of the 12th over in the final the Windies hadn't even made 50 runs and it was at this point, with Sri Lanka seemingly having the measure of them, that I decided to lay my bet off :(
The rest as they say is history. The Windies posted 130 something and Sri Lanka ended up all out for about 100.
As you can tell it still annoys me even now!! I still feel like I should've stuck with my gut, but I guess that's betting.

To answer your question specifically I suppose it'd depend on how many more key wickets my team had left and how effective I thought their bowling could be on the pitch against the chasing batsmen. Although from past experience I'd be inclined to stick with my initial bet, which I realise doesn't make sense since each situation should be judged on its own merits, but I'd be happier sticking with my gut.
Current IPL betting discussion thread tipping stats after bet 31:
3.8 pts profit, -1.33 pts LSP, 5.3% ROI, 35.5% S/R.

someguy4321
Group 3 Class
Tips
Posts: 84
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2014 11:00 pm

Postby someguy4321 » Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:29 am

Thanks for your answer.

I know the saying 'listen to your gut' but sometimes when I analyse games there are too many things to consider (things like off-days, statistics and gut feelings). Sometimes I'm forced to make a decision (cash out or not) and its at the peak of all my decision making - and the time limit creates more pressure - I'm forced to make a rash choice.

davidg3907
At Stud
User avatar
Betting Blog Tips
Posts: 4886
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2009 11:00 pm
Location: Oadby , Leicestershire

Postby davidg3907 » Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:35 pm

It is actually much simpler than that - in theory rather than practice of course.

As ever, assess the TRUE odds at the point in question.

If you would still back YOUR team at the current odds, cashing out is definitely a bad idea. If you would back the opposing team, cashing out may be a good idea.

At best, cashing out is only a lazy version of trading. By trading the position yourself manually, you can choose to take all or part of the cash out option.
LAYING Taking it further
LAYING Delving deeper - NEW

FOOTBALL blogs under Blogs/Football
New RELEGATION diary in Blogs/systems

Andy4Fingers
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1809
Joined: Thu Oct 12, 2006 11:00 pm
Location: Manchester

Postby Andy4Fingers » Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:58 pm

bet365 allow you to cash out however much of your bet you choose with their slider. You don't get the odds you'd get from an exchange but it's an improvement on all or nothing.
Current IPL betting discussion thread tipping stats after bet 31:
3.8 pts profit, -1.33 pts LSP, 5.3% ROI, 35.5% S/R.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users