Big Bash 2015/16 - BBL05

nellberg1
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Postby nellberg1 » Sun Jan 10, 2016 3:42 pm

Welcome to the thread Harry!

Yes, the standard of fielding has left a lot to be desired, they've mixed in the sublime (Andre Russell took a screamer, Agar as a sub took a great one also) to the ridiculous (Michael Lumb in the 1st game is a standout, but there has been plenty). Given the Aussies pride themselves are being good athletes and the best fielders, the catching has been below the standard you'd expect.

I agree that the strong form of the Strikers has been a surprise. Even though they topped the league last season, I thought this year would have been more of a struggle for them. They don't have the "big names" compared to some of the other sides, but they seem to make it work and Gillespie as coach must take a lot of the credit for that. The main example of his influence would be the strong performances of Rashid. He's been seen as a weak character in the past, but he knows Gillespie from Yorkshire and he looks a confident individual at the moment.

Hodge is a calm individual, and that will radiate thoughtout the squad. He's also mentoring Travis Head to take over the role in the next few seasons, so their success should continue in years to come. His form with the bat has also been better than I'd expected, he's getting on but has such experience, he's been in every possible situation in the past which helps his decision-making.

They haven't been afraid to make big decisions, dropping Simmons despite him being on a big-money contract showed that despite winning games they were looking to improve. Now Jayawardene is injured I expect him to come back in, how he reacts to being dropped could be important to their form going forward. Ludeman, Head and Ross will also have to take extra responsibility, but they are in good form so it's entirely possible.

What's really impressed me is their bowling attack, and in particular it's variety. Richardson is away with Australia but when he played he added extra pace to their attack and swing with the new ball. Stanlake is a big fella, and his extra bounce has been difficult to combat. Laughlin is a real bag of tricks, he's a wicket taker (most BBL wickets in the history of the comp) and it's difficult to get hold of him as he has so many different deliveries. Rashid is another who's a real wicket-taking threat whilst also keeping it tight, so he's done a great job. It will be difficult for him to keep up his current form, but if he does he'll end up being the MVP for the tournament. Holland is a steady left-arm spinner, you know what you're getting from him,

What's been noticeable in the general is that the teams who can take wickets regularly and have the better bowling attacks have been the successful side. Adelaide Strikers have a good varied attack, The Scorchers have a dream attack who can all take wickets whilst being tough to score off, and The Stars have plenty of options and guys who can bowl in a variety of situations. In contrast, a side like the Heat hadn't offered much of a threat with the ball and suffered because of it. Before today's game, they'd lost 5 out of 6 despite scoring the most runs in the tournament. Even no, after 7 games their joint top wicket takers are Fekete and Badree, with only 4. It's so hard to contain when you aren't taking wickets, and for that reason I think The Scorchers will be hard to beat as they have the best attack around.

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Postby nellberg1 » Mon Jan 11, 2016 9:20 pm

Another defeat for the Thunder today, their 4th on the bounce. They've had some rough luck, the weather has made things difficult for them defending a total twice now and they've suffered injuries to M.Hussey, Kallis and Russell during the last few games so it seems nothing is going right for them at the moment.

Coming to the business end of the season now, The Heat and The Sixers are all but out of it, The Scorchers and The Strikers are definitely in the semi's, The Stars look all but there so that leaves 3 teams trying to get the 4th spot.

Hobart look to be up against it, for 2 reasons. Firstly, their remaining game is away at The Strikers, who have won 5 out of 6 games. Secondly, their net-run rate is a lot worse than their rivals so they'd need to win and hope both The Thunder and The Renegades to lose. They look a bit short at 5/4 to win this game, I would have The Strikers as stronger favourites given they will still be motivated to win in order to gain a home semi-final.

The Thunder have a decent chance, as their last fixture is against The Sixers, who are struggling with injuries just as much as The Thunder are. The Sixers have fallen off a cliff recently, their batting depth looks pretty poor and they were poor in all disciplines in their last game against The Heat. Local pride may mean they raise their game but I like The Thunder's chances here, 8/13 looks about right.

Last up we have The Renagades. They have the advantage of playing in the last game, so they know exactly what's required of them before they play their game. They also have a better net run-rate compared to The Thunder and The Hurricanes so that's another positive for them. The negative would be they have to play The Strikers, but they may already be guaranteed a top-2 spot (and home semi final) so be easing off. At the moment the prices suggest it's a toss-up, with home advantage and the strong possibility that the Strikers will have nothing to play for, I will side with The Renegades. Only 1 bookie has priced the game up yet, I'll check again before The Strikers play their next game on Wednesday morning.

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Winner of BBL

Postby nishaan » Wed Jan 13, 2016 7:55 am

This seasons two strong contendors for winni BBL are.
1. Melbourne Stars
2. Adelaide Strikers

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Postby nellberg1 » Wed Jan 13, 2016 8:35 am

Adelaide Strikers have drifted to 4/5 for their game against the Hurricanes.. They are missing Jayawardene but Hurricanes are missing Sammy. With home advantage, and wanting to win to secure a home semi-final, I think this price represents value. The Hurricanes need to win top have a chance of making the top 4, but they've only won 3 out of 7 games, and 2 of them were against bottom side The Brisbane Heat. Strikers have won 5 and lost only 1 so 4/5 on paper looks a big price.

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Postby Fredgarv » Wed Jan 13, 2016 3:05 pm

That was a close call for the strikers who just scraped through with young Leighman smashing a six off the last ball tomorrow's game is between the stars and the not so hot heat who are already out of the comp I can't really see any other result than the stars win but the odds are a bit skinny I think a look at one of the other markets is in order

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Postby nellberg1 » Wed Jan 13, 2016 4:45 pm

That was a close call for the strikers who just scraped through with young Leighman smashing a six off the last ball tomorrow's game is between the stars and the not so hot heat who are already out of the comp I can't really see any other result than the stars win but the odds are a bit skinny I think a look at one of the other markets is in order
Strikers made a bit of a pig's ear of the chase, being only 3 down going into the last over if they'd have lost it would have been criminal!

Stars at 4/7 with 4 players missing (Maxwell, Faulkner, Boland and now Hastings) is a no bet for me. Given 3 of those are front-line bowlers the angle I'm going to go for is that the batting side score more runs than they are quoted for. For example, at the start of the innings they'd be expected to get 150-170 on a normal MCG deck. Given the Heat's bowling isn't very incisive and The Stars are missing 3 good quicks, it could be a high-scoring game.

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Postby garlicsauce » Fri Jan 15, 2016 12:40 pm

Double Header Sat 16th Jan -

Sydney derby -
The Sixers are not mathematically out of it. They would need to thump the Thunder here and hope the Strikers do the same to the Renegades. They could then still qualify in fourth on NRR, but it's a long shot. The Thunder are in poor form though. I know there's been dew around, but they have been poor. They are also not guaranteed progression with a win, but will have to wait on other results.

Squad news is that Maddinson and Lawford come in for the Sixers, while Henry Nicholls come in for the Thunder. With both teams on a four game losing streak it's hard to bet with confidence, but I'm leaning towards the Sixers.

The Betting
Thunder @1.73 with Paddy Power
Sixers @2.4 with Betway


Scorchers v Stars -
The Stars visit the Furnace with the Scorchers already qualified, but looking for a home tie. The Stars are not guaranteed a place yet and even a narrow loss might see them though, depending on other results.The Stars were very poor with the bat on Thursday and will be looking to improve. A big win could see them with the home tie in the last four.

Squad news is big for the Scorchers, with Jason Behrendorff missing out. No change in the 13 man suad for the Stars. Another that's close and I'm favouring the Stars to bounce back and qualify with ease.

The Betting -
Scorchers @1.62 with Betfair
Stars @2.37 with Betway

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Postby Fredgarv » Sat Jan 16, 2016 8:28 am

Sixers v thunder
I know its late for this one but watching this it looks a great pitch to bat on and looks like the thunder are heading for 190 the sixers have to match that score in 17 overs to have any chance to qualify so it looks like well be in for a cracking run chase no prices up yet for sixers batters but I will be looking at Lumb scoring a 25 and him top batting for the sixers there should be plenty of boundaries on offer.

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Postby Fredgarv » Sat Jan 16, 2016 10:18 am

Got a stroke of luck there didn't get my Lumb bet on he was out before I could get a bet on so did sixers to score over 155.5 runs how close won by half a run :win:

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Postby nellberg1 » Sat Jan 16, 2016 4:48 pm

Surprised a well-drilled outfit like the Scorchers put in such a sub-standard batting display when a home semi-final was up for grabs. Much harder having to go to the MCG than a game in familiar conditions at the WACA.

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Postby Fredgarv » Sun Jan 17, 2016 9:25 pm

The renegades need to step up tomorrow against the strikers with the Adelaide outfit winning their last four games the Melbourne side have won two of the last three and with Finch still out they are looking for Gayle and White to score the bulk of their runs , Adelaide are top and may just have one eye on the next stage so I am sticking with my original fancies for the bash the renegades and hope Gayle puts one of those performances that make him the attraction he is.

RENEGADES win
GAYLE top bat

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Postby nellberg1 » Sun Jan 17, 2016 10:11 pm

I'm not fond of betting on match outcomes when either one side has nothing to play for, or one side not only has to win but win by a certain amount. This game has both of those scenario's, as Strikers are already guaranteed top spot, home semi (and final if they make it that far). Renegades have to win, but have to do it by a certain amount of runs (around 20-30) or within a certain amount of overs (around 16). Renegades need to win so may feel the pressure, Strikers may just go and have some fun, play with freedom etc, so it's got red flags all over for me as a game to back on the outright winner.

Given the tournament situation of Renegades needing to win by a big margin, the 2 bets I like are Renegades to have the highest score after 6 overs, and the Renegades to hit more sixes. Both a just a fraction under even money and would seem fair picks given the Renegades batsman have to take big risks. There are times where Gayle plays himself in and starts very slowly, don't think he can afford to do that tomorrow given their perilous position.

On the subject of Gayle, he's got in then not gone on a few times so far. I couldn't back him at 9/4 but I do think he could produce something special tomorrow, so best of look for his scoring a boatload Fredgarv (It would also help my bet on him to be Renegades top batsman for the tournament also!)

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