Cricket Betting - What is Your Approach?

nors
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Cricket Betting - What is Your Approach?

Postby nors » Mon Sep 21, 2015 8:52 am

It would be helpful to read members take on their strategy's to beat the bookies when it comes to Cricket.

Away from the English summer season do any members specialise in particular countries matches?

Is Top Batsmen/Bowling betting a profitable bet?

Do members after closing out a bet go back in again?

Do we have any experts who regard betting on Cricket as their number 1 betting sport?

We have a need to find a few members/experts who can guide the rest of us on the best approaches.
Last edited by nors on Tue Jan 19, 2016 9:16 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby nellberg1 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 7:27 am

I spent a year living out in Australia, so I pay particular attention to the Big Bash down under, and will also bet on Australian home test matches. I think you get a slightly better feel for how things will progress when you've been to games out there, and I'd know the capabilities of their players just as well as I would with English county players.

The Big Bash games were on Sky last year, 8am starts with a game every day from mid December through to January, so you can get to know the teams and their strategies and pick up good things to bet on. If it's still on Sky this year, I'll definitely be looking to get involved again. Seeing it with your own eyes helps, rather than just looking at a scorecard and seeing how many someone scored etc. The IPL is another tournament that is live on Sky now, so there are opportunities there once you get to know the teams and how they go about their business. I remember Chennai used to always start slow as a pre-designed plan, before going hell-for-leather at the end, so I'd back the other side to score more in the 1st 6 overs. Then one year they bought Dwayne Smith and Brendan McCullum, and their plan was to get off to flying starts and my theory was ruined, so it's useful to watch and see what processes teams are using to get to their end goal.

Top batsman/bowler bets can be profitable, I prefer a top series bet to an individual innings as over a 5-match series there is less variance than from a single innings. You might back an in-form batsman who gets a beauty first ball and that's the bet over, it's happened before (many times to me!) and will happen again, it's the nature of betting on cricket that 1 ball can end a batsman bet so you have to be able to take the swings. Top bowling bets can often end in dead-heats, the majority of teams have 4-5 bowlers so there could be scenario's where all 5 take 2 wickets or more commonly 2 bowlers tie with 3 wickets, so I'd look towards series betting in the main for bowlers.

As with any sport, if you do your research you can find trends and opportunities to make profit. I used the example of David Warner in my pre-Ashes blog as a spot where research paints a different picture to what the odds tell you. He had a tendency to score centuries in the 2nd innings of tests, but had rarely top scored in 1st innings of tests, so there was 3 betting opportunities to be looked at. Australia 1st innings top batsman he was usually 2nd favorite behind Smith, but hadn't top scored in the 1st innings for a good while, so opposing him there looked a strong move. However, he had regularly top scored in 2nd innings, and in-play his odds were always around 3/1 so backing him 2nd time around looked a good ploy. Lastly, he began the series as favourite to be "man of the match", and was consistently in the top 3 or 4 in the betting for that award. I always look for an outstanding bowler or big first innings run for MOTM picks, so he looked like someone to put a line through for betting on that market. As it happened, he failed to reach 50 in the first innings of the 1st 4 tests, but passed 50 in the 2nd innings of all those games, before scoring 85 in his only knock in the last game. Looking back, there was profit to be made from the 1st 4 tests just by betting on him individually. I didn't take advantage of every opportunity, but that thought process based solely on him would have lead me to enough winning bets on Smith top Australian batsman/MOTM to make money on a series I was ultimately wrong about (I'd backed Australia outright!)

Touching again on 'man of the match' betting, it's market I like to get involved in due to the big prices. It's usually 8/1 the field or bigger, so there is scope to find a big-priced winner. I'm looking for a player who's likely to be on the winning side, so if I don't have a clear idea of who will win the game I'll dutch 1 player from each side. Normally I'm looking for a batsman who's capable of big first innings runs, so an in-form batsman who's shown in the past they can score 150+. During the Ashes I tended to go for Root/Smith. On the odd occasion I'll look for a bowler, The stats for bowlers winning MOTM at Trent Bridge were very strong so I dutched Broad and Starc for that particular game. In the sub-continent where spinners will be looking to bowl teams out on the last day for victory, guys like Yasir Shah and Ravi Ashwin come into my thinking.

Everyone has their own approach into how they pick a bet, some might be based solely on price, others will pick in-form players regardless of odds etc. I usually base my bets around stats, so for me the use of cricinfo is invaluable. Every individual players stats are available, so you can get exact figures on past performances. The markets available on cricket are pretty vast, from "who will have the best economy rate?" to "player performance points", so I can usually find a bet in one of the sub-markets that, based on the stats, I think may be the wrong price.

I love watching cricket, and talking about cricket, so betting on it was a natural progression for me. I'm not much of a user of Betfair, so other members will be better at sharing their experiences of trading on cricket, and hopefully I can learn form their expertise and give it a go in the near future.

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Postby nors » Mon Sep 28, 2015 8:34 am

It seems that like FGS/AGS Top Batsmen/Top Bowler are popular bets on Cricket.

How do the odds compare on Top Bowler/Top Batsmen? is Top Bowler with less contenders a much skinnier price?

Pitch conditions must be crucial when selecting a player but they do give you a steer on whether the pitch will spin or suit fast/seam bowlers.

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Postby inatimate » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:31 pm

I\'ve always been a big fan of the run lines in the shorter format of the game, I always check the pitches and the playing conditions of a match, see the average first innings scores at specific grounds before a match gets underway in order to gauge how easy or difficult it has been to score on a pitch in the past.

There is often a lot of value to be found in tournaments when the first couple of matches have seen high/low first innings scores and the bookies seem to adjust the lines according to the matches that have preceded it on different grounds, something I can never really fathom as it does not happen in other sports. If you look at it with football then a couple of goal fests in the Premier League on a Saturday should not affect whether or not there will be goals in the Sunday matches, but cricket seems to take those into account at early stages of t20 tournaments where if the first two matches have seen teams set 180 to win then the run lines will be adjusted for the third match to reflect that even if it is between two completely different sides at a different ground.


The recent regional t20 tournament in India is an example of where ground form can play a huge factor. There was a lot of value on sides chasing down 170 plus in those matches even though there were three matches at the same ground most days and the scores were constantly in the 160+ region and the chasing sides were not having much trouble in getting close to the target even when losing two or three early wickets.

I suppose everyone has their own approaches, but runs is definitely where my focus lies

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Postby nors » Mon Nov 02, 2015 10:20 am

Do we have any new members who specialise on Cricket?

With the focus not so much on Cricket during the Winter months are the bookies generous/less disciplined with prices and can we take advantage?

In Rugby i reckon they came unstuck on the RWC and wondered whether we could find some angles for Cricket from November thru to April when their minds may be somewhere else, and they have less staff compiling and researching markets?

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winning approach

Postby nishaan » Wed Jan 13, 2016 8:00 am

Limit the stake for all matches is the winning approach

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Postby Fredgarv » Wed Jan 13, 2016 8:48 am

I myself look at the batting aspect of the game and top bat wincast bets like that if you get good pitches you can near enough guarantee one of the top three or four will be top bat if a pitch is turning I tend to go down the order a bit same with the wincast sometimes its prudent to wait for the toss as that can make or break a teams chances that is mainly on pitches where the ball is moving about. The thing I like most about events like the big bash and IPL is the games come quick and if players are in form they tend to keep it from game to game same if a player is not performing you also get a good in play market I have had test matches where I backed all three possible outcomes each yielding a decent profit. just because a team makes 200 in a t20 match doesn't mean that's a winning score like yesterday Aussies v India you could tell the Indians missed a trick although they reached 309 you could tell it wasn't a match winning score and the Aussies reached it easily but India went favourite that looked easy money for me.

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Postby Andy4Fingers » Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:23 am

I personally think it all depends on the format and the match. I prefer T20 or ODI because I find it easier to read the game whereas I think we're seeing more of the short format hitting creep into tests which skews things a little for me - Ben Stokes' double hundred last week being a good example.
I quite like man of the match betting, particularly if I'm confident of a winner. It's more often than not the top batsman on the winning team who collects the award and motm odds are usually about 3 times the odds of top batsman so it makes sense to me.
I also like backing top series batsman a couple of games in when the player I want has been out cheaply. The odds can be fantastic and I often find the cream rises to the top.
If I'm watching the game with no distractions (no kids! :P ) then I don't mind trading. The market seems to hugely overestimate batsmen who I don't think suit T20 particularly well (for example Kallis) or who can be walking wickets anyway (like Dwayne Smith).
Other than that I'll bet on any market I see value in. I remember back during the 2012 IPL Paddy Power had Chris Gayle to hit a six in his innings @ 8/11, or going over on the sixes line when RCB are playing at home.

Just some of my thoughts, but good luck to all and I hope to be reading & posting more frequently soon so it'll be good to see what everyone is doing :win:
Current IPL betting discussion thread tipping stats after bet 31:
3.8 pts profit, -1.33 pts LSP, 5.3% ROI, 35.5% S/R.

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Postby nors » Tue Jan 19, 2016 8:44 am

Maybe a worthwhile exercise checking the historic odds of Cricket MOTM in relation to the top batsmen in each team. Or splitting your stakes say 70/30 on both markets.

In the upcoming Australia v India match

Top Batsmen
Smith 4.0
Warner 4.0

MOTM
Smith 8.0
Warner 10.0

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Postby nors » Mon Feb 29, 2016 9:31 am

So what should be the overall cricket strategy for winning on the upcoming World Twenty20?

Do members have a strategy/ideas as to how we can profit from this tournament?

Not so much tips but ideas on what to look out for?

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Postby nellberg1 » Sat Mar 12, 2016 10:19 am

In T20I's I like to pick a batsman to be the MOTM. A bowler can only bowl 4 overs so they have a limited opportunity to make the match-defining contribution. So I concentrate on the batsman from the side I think will win the game and check their MOTM stats. I can point to decent-priced winners, even for batsman who are the favourite to top-score for their side.

Game 1 - Sibanda (Zimbabwe opening batsman). Despite being an opening batman this game saw him score his 1st T20I fifty and get his 1st MOTM award. It would have took a leap of faith to support him.

Game 2 - Mohammed Shahzad (Afghanistan opening batsman). This is one that would have hit the trends. Opening batsman for the dominant side, favourite to top score for Afghanistan, he now has 9 MOTM awards from 44 T20I's, with 9 50's and 1 century. Despite these strong stats he I think he was a 8/1 shot to be MOTM, so certainly good value. He would have been around 3/1 to top score for Afghanistan so the jump to 8/1 for MOTM is pretty substantial.

Game 3 - Tamim Iqbal (Bangladesh opening batsman). Another for the trends. Opening batman for the dominant side, he was favourite to top score for Bangladesh. His T20I record isn't very strong, with this being his 1st MOTM award and he only has 4 50's from 48 games, so that may have put me off slightly. A lot of those games would have seen Bangladesh go off as underdogs against full member nations, so in games against the Associate nations when Bangladesh are strongly fancied it becomes a stronger bet. Given Shakib is always towards the head of the market Iqbal would have been around 7/8-1 for MOTM, so a nice price if following the "best batsman of the best team" theory

Game 4- Amir Ali (Oman all-rounder). Pretty much an outlier in every sense! I had followed the theory and picked Stirling as Ireland's most destructive opening batsman in a game they were strongly fancied to win. Oman managed to pull off the shock and anyone who picked Ali to be MOTM would have got a big price!

Game 5 - Wellington Masakadza (Zimbabwe bowler). Masakadza has only played 6 T20I's, so it's too early to see if he's going to be a regular MOTM winner. On turning pitches in India there is always a chance that a spinner can have plenty of joy, but he'd taken only 4 wickets in 5 T20I's prior to this game so hadn't shown the requisite ability until this game. Whether spinners can be viable MOTM picks is something I'll monitor during the tournament, but sometimes a top spinner shapes the game by building pressure and keeping his economy rate down, and other bowlers reap the rewards of that pressure with wickets at the other end. That kind of scenario means the top spinner won't be in the running for the MOTM award though.

Game 6 - Mohammad Nabi (Afghanistan all-rounder). This was Nabi's 3rd MOTM award from 41 games, gained on the basis of his 4 wickets. He'll be a shorter price than a normal off-spinner because he bats in the top 5, so it's expected he will top up his bowling contributions with useful runs with the bat.. If you were picking a Afghanistan bowler to be MOTM, the 2 quicks were at the head of the "top Afghanistan bowler" and they included 3 spinners. Alongside Nabi you have Shenwari (2 MOTM from 39 games) and Rashid Khan (0 MOTM from 9 games). This shows the difficulty in picking a bowler to be MOTM in normal circumstances, as the top bowler market is normally priced up competitively compared to top batsman markets.

Early days in the tournament and very small sample size, but 3 opening batsman have been MOTM from 6 completed games, with 2 being the "main" batsman for their sides. If the odds were around 8/1 then backing those "main" batsman for the favoured side would be a level-stakes profit of 12 from 6 games. It can be frustrating when your MOTM pick gets out early and the bet is a brick straight away, but I'm hopeful in the long-run it would be profitable throughout the whole tournament.

The pitches may well spin more in the latter stages of the tournament, as they'll have been played on regularly and may break up. That would be an opportunity to take stock and possibility support the main spinner in the favoured side, but for now I'm going to stick with "top batsman/top team" theory :win:

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Postby vishu342 » Thu Jun 02, 2016 11:56 am

Focus on Specific Markets

When making the transition from recreational betting to professional-level wagering, the first step is to limit the scope of one’s stakes. No matter how savvy a bettor may be, it is impossible to have a detailed knowledge of every league, team, player and tournament available. The International Cricket Council alone boasts 105 members, including ten full members playing Test matches, 35 associate members and 60 affiliates.

A good starting point might be to focus on domestic play, which is well reported in the press and online. For example, the Indian Premier League (IPL) currently has ten teams to follow, each with a minimum squad strength of 16 players and engaged in at least 14 tournament matches each season — easily manageable numbers for any serious punter. By the time the round robin phase of play has concluded, only four semi-finalists emerge for the knockout matches, each of which will be well known to handicappers by then.

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