Betting on test cricket

someguy4321
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Betting on test cricket

Postby someguy4321 » Thu Nov 20, 2014 5:59 am

I have realised how complex test cricket is to bet on. First of all, there are 3 result choices, win, draw, lose. (I realise this is common in football, these outcomes). Then there's the 5 days in which to be played in and some things could affect the game (weather, player injuries, some teams batting/bowling could improve/deteriorate after time periods). Anyone have any thoughts on betting on test cricket? Should punters avoid it? Maybe limited overs cricket is easier to bet on.

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Postby fairfranco » Thu Nov 20, 2014 10:35 am

moving this to the cricket section someguy4321.

I'll post on this topic when I get a chance, i'm busy watching the test and hoping for wickets at the moment!!!

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Postby fairfranco » Mon Nov 24, 2014 11:50 am

someguy this an interesting thing to bring up and maybe some people might have opinions on the relative difference in betting between different formats.

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You are correct that test betting can be pretty complex, it is very different from betting on the shorter formats and a lot of the time requires you to hold back a bit more before trading bets.

It really is a game that suits trading so much as you have such a long period for the market to fluctuate and predicted outcomes to change. A good understanding of teams and conditions can allow you to see a good position to be in for the first innings say and when to look to change.

limited overs cricket isn't necessarily easier to bet on but it can depend on your mind set.

If you are not someone that trades games and just want to back 1 outcome then personally I think your missing a trick on cricket as it such a good trading sport. If that is you then the best thing is to get an idea of how you think the game will go then look for value in play.

If you look at my post in the Pakistan v New Zealand thread http://www.olbg.com/forum/topic19_53437.html you'll see that after day 3 I predicted how day 4 would go. By having a good think as to how i could see that time going and weighing up what may or may not happen I was able to decide what I thought the best value would be for that time.

I think i'll write a blog post on test cricket betting. It's a great thing to understand and though it requires a bit of patience there can be great rewards.

Personally i'm split on which I prefer, a good test makes for exciting viewing and great trading.

T20's can be great but are such high risk given the potential for 1 over to completely change a game and the ability for most players, even a tail ender to step up and blast the ball for a vital 6.

ODI's similar to T20's can be very volatile but also can often be a bit dull especially on some of the very flat pitches of late. there have been some exicting games though and some good betting games.

Everyone has their preference but it's just about understanding how you thinka game might or might not pan out.

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Continued...

Postby someguy4321 » Mon Nov 24, 2014 10:54 pm

I want to share another theory to hear opinions.

In test cricket the host team has a greater chance of winning the first test match.

My theories to support this:

1. In the first test match, the away side is unfamiliar with the pitch and/or hasn't got settled with the away conditions, weather, outfield etc.
2. Away teams are "chucked in the deep end" in the first test because there's a chance it's their first test in a while or there are new players in the team that haven't "gelled together" as a team.

If you look at the 2nd test between NZ and Pakistan, NZ's batting improved. Some of the NZ batters got some game time and practice from the 1st test match and it helped them bat better in the 2nd test.

I realise the home team will have home advantage and it's an obvious benefit but to me it feels like the away team is "ambushed" in the first test. If the away team is an excellent test side, then it might even out in the first test. 50/50 result.

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As for limited overs cricket
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I don't bet on 20 over cricket because that looks like a "cash cow" for the bookies. I've seen teams start really badly and go onto win the game and vice versa. 20 over cricket reminds me of baseball where the batter is trying to slog the "right ball". Looks too much like "luck" to me with no reasoning.

ODIs are more consistent and reliable especially with home advantage, form, history and there's more time to be "found out" in the middle (i.e. if you're a fluky player or genuine player) in the longer 50 overs game than the shortened 20 overs game.

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Postby fairfranco » Tue Nov 25, 2014 11:51 am

this can certainly be true, though can depend on how much preparation a team has had as to how much they struggle. When England or Australia prepare for the Ashes they will play several warm up games, similarly normally teams visiting England for a summer test series put in a few games. When weather effects these warm up games it can scupper a teams preparation.

Some teams turn up late with very little preparation and struggle.

That said even with several games teams can still find they struggle a bit with the increased intestity of the test, more taxing opposition and better prepared pitches.

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Postby perthmole » Sun Jan 04, 2015 4:26 am

I would personally say that Test cricket is a better game to bet on than the shorter format. I would say that it is a far more predictable format, as due to the length of the game a team has more time to recover from a bad patch. This is why we don't see the likes of Bangladesh winning many Tests, whereas they have been able to challenge the top sides on their day in the limited formats.

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Postby martinr » Wed Jan 21, 2015 4:32 am

I love Test Cricket and it is my second favourite sport (after horse racing). I have to say though, the trading opportunities on T20 cricket are something else.
someguy mentions T20 being a cash cow for the bookmakers, where I take the view that T20 is a cash cow for traders.
The huge liquidity in the markets and the volatility within the game make it perfect for trading. 6 balls can have one team going from being a perceived 70% chance to a 30% chance, and then back again. If a trader isn't overly greedy, and he has a decent sized bankroll there is a very good income to be made due to the huge liquidity in the Betfair markets. The game is now played year round which also suits professional traders.
It's also a great spectator sport for anyone who enjoys cricket.
I had a sceptical and negative view towards the game when it was first introduced but have completely changed my opinion on the game.
The 50 over game doesn't do much for me. It needs innings like AB de Villiers' the other day, or the upcoming World Cup, to generate any sort of excitement.

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Postby bomber » Fri Feb 13, 2015 3:07 pm

20,20 cricket is a fan friendly game for people who like quick fire all guns blazing knock em out the ground cricket action,5 day tests can be a knife edge twist and turns tactical battle or 1 long drawn out draw written all over it yawn fest .3 days rain 2 days of padding out barring a spectacular collapse by 1 side.
You get more time to read the game obviously in the longer the format game, also the batsman gets less flack for getting out in a limited overs match
Kevin Pietersen would smash some quick fire Test match runs then get slated for trying to get runs off a terrible ball he shouldn't have touched..
As for betting with England i try to go with the form players Bell has rescued England before but isn't a typical hero player like the Aussies turn out,i wouldn't back England in Australia too inexperienced doubts over Eoin Morgans form plus a right spanking in a certain Test series in OZ not that long ago.

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Postby harryroy293 » Sat Nov 21, 2015 4:54 am

I would personally say that Test cricket is a better game to bet on than the shorter format. I would say that it is a far more predictable format, as due to the length of the game a team has more time to recover from a bad patch. This is why we don't see the likes of Bangladesh winning many Tests, whereas they have been able to challenge the top sides on their day in the limited formats.
Yeah! I agreed, but nowadays Bangladesh team is going good and creating tough time for other sides.

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