Alternate Betting RLWC Scotland v Samoa.

RogueWeka
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Alternate Betting RLWC Scotland v Samoa.

Postby RogueWeka » Fri Nov 10, 2017 6:20 am

Samoa opened as huge underdogs paying 12-00 to win the match but now hot favourites at 1-10.

Samoa should win this, but they tired real easy against New Zealand and the Kiwis were poor despite the 38-8 win. They were brave in the 18-32 loss to Tonga match, and they had to be. It was one of those honour matches between two fierce rivals, all on the World Stage and beamed live to millions around the Globe........Quite possibly the biggest game of their tournament, if not History.
There would have been some excessively Battered and Bruised bodies in the Samoan camp afterward which will take some recovering and some players will definitely be carrying niggles, they won't be playing at the same intensity as the Tongan or KiwIs game. Which makes them a bit vulnerable.

Scotland have a lot to play for here. They were embarrassed by a tournament high 74-6 first up game by a better performing Kiwis unit, then Bullied by Tonga 50-4.
There have been issues off the pitch which has seen their Captain among others sent home, so this really does become a "BraveHeart' match for the Scots who need a proud moment in this tournament, and a big showing in this one is required. They may adopt a death before dishonour approach, which could win them the game, but I doubt this. They may be in it right to the final whistle but fall short, or be behind by 30 with 10 to go and rattle in 3 tries against a tired Soman side. The Possibilities are there, and for the right odds it's worth looking for some value in other markets.

Scotland Win ......... 35-00

Scotland +15.5 .......... 5-00
Samoa Win 1-12 ...........8-50
Scotland Win 1-12 ............40-00

The Total O/U is at 55.5 points. So, are both sides capable of scoring score 28 points. I think with a tired Samoa, Scotland could go 3-4 tries, and a 70 minute Samoa 6-7 tries (18-36 or 24-42), missed conversions and penalties not factored. but with a range of 54-60 I'd favour the Over.


Samoa win 1-12/over 54.5 .........45-00
Scotland win 1-12/over 54.5 ..........300-00

Scotland +33.5/over 54.5 ........ 6-50
Scotland +35.5/over 56.5 ........ 7-00
Scotland +31.5/over 56.5 ......... 9-00
Scotland +35.5/over 52.5 ........4-50
Scotland +31.5/over 52.5 ........ 6-00

Scotland Win/over 54.5 ......... 275-00
Scotland Win/under 54.5 ..........40-00


I'm taking a lot out of the fitness levels of both sides and the importance more for the Scotts than Samoa, and picking a close match.

I like the value of Scotland +33.5/over 54.5 combination, @6-50 so going x 5 and use this to cover 3 bets;

Scotland Win/over 54.5 ....... 275-00 x 5
Scotland win 1-12/over 54.5 ........... 300-00 x 5
Samoa win 1-12/over 54.5 ...........45-00 x 5


Good Luck
RW

tadley
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Re: Alternate Betting RLWC Scotland v Samoa.

Postby tadley » Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:54 pm

Samoa didnt open as huge underdogs paying 12-00 to win the match. You probably saw the Union match odds. A lot of people tipping on the forum seem confused between the two. Nevertheless it was a nice thorough write up. From what Ive seen of Scotland they may struggle to get 3 or 4 tries as they are looking a very poor side. I think Samoa have played ok and should slice open Scotland and may even cover the handicap.

RogueWeka
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Re: Alternate Betting RLWC Scotland v Samoa.

Postby RogueWeka » Fri Nov 10, 2017 6:26 pm

You maybe right there Tadley. I have the feed come directly to me when the markets open, and definitely have Samoa -Rugby league first post at 10/1, then next post at 1.08. This probably explains why I have my Bet on Scotland void. Bookie obviously got mixed up at first. Yeah you are more right than wrong on Scotland. But I know the Samoan game pretty well and they are great tankers. I'm sort of looking at an upset of the tournament for this one. There have not been any real ones and if the Scots can play with the attitude of Italy last night, albeit for 60 min, they could pull this off. Samoa Look like they can be a bit lazy. No real value in this to back them.. thanks.
RW

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