NRL Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs v Newcastle Knights

RogueWeka
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NRL Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs v Newcastle Knights

Postby RogueWeka » Sun Jul 09, 2017 12:58 am

The Bulldogs continue to suffer from the lack in ability to cross the chalk. They have maintained good yards through the middle but lack of penetration of the back line, who rank at the bottom in line breaks with an average of 2.88 per game, has them averaging just 2.5 tries per game which is also the worst in the competition. Origin duty sees the Doggies without Brett Morris, David Klemmer and Josh Jackson. Further depleting their ranks is the Injury to Captain James Graham who is out for the month with a neck Injury.
Canterbury's hopes of making the top eight are over. There last start golden point loss to the Eels was the final nail in the coffin and the only have pride and avoiding the wooden spoon to play for. This match will have some importance for the Home side with the final game in the Blue and white at Belmore for "Homeboy", Josh Reynolds. Reynolds is off to join the Wests-Tigers and as a Player who was Born and Bred in Belmore you can expect a big crowd to witness the former Blues 5/8's swansong on home turf.

The Newcastle Knights once again struggle to be competitive, and coming in off what was their worst performance of the season losing at home to the Tigers 33-12 and excuses are starting to wear a little thin. There are some positives for the Knights in this match up, they average 2 more points per game than Canterbury, average more line breaks and make less errors than the Doggies, albeit by 3 hundredths of a point, but that is where it ends. Newcastle lured 5/8 Hodgkinson from the doggies last season, and as a principal signing he has been out of favour and relegated to the reserve grade for most of the season which indicates to me that all is not well within this club. Hodgkinson gets the nod tonight to play against his old club, which really is a positive step for the Northerners, but with Dane Gagai on Duty for Queensland Newcastle loose the glue that holds the back 3 together.

This is a match between 2 teams with rubbish forms, You would have to agree that the Doggies should be too good here, but getting value is a bit difficult as the spread sits at an awkward -8 to the hosts. Canterbury have been held scoreless twice this season, being drubbed by the Sea Eagles 36-0 at Brookvale in round 2, and 0-38 by the Panthers at home in round 13. What could be a telling factor here is the loss to the Panthers was at home in a match where the doggies had players on duty for Origin game 1 and followed a tough 9-8 away loss to the Sharks, which is the very situation Canterbury find themselves in now after their last start 1 point away loss to the Eels. There is also Canterburys recent record of performances when their is a sentimental note involved, Last season they played their last game at their spiritual home of Ballymore, and expectations where high that the Doggies would rise to the occasion and farewell their ground with victory, it never eventuated, and with emotion involved with Reynolds departure on this one thigs start to line up against the Bulldogs.

The Knights can play football as they showed against the Dragons in round 16 where they ran in 5 tries in the space of 13 minutes to lead 12-28 at the break only to collapse in the second half losing 32-28. It is the Dragons that may serve as the bench test for both sides as both Canterbury and Newcastle have played them recently. The Bulldogs were squashed at Dragons 16-2 in round 14 which was the next up game following the Penrith Humiliation mentioned above.

This match may be closer than expected and I am going to give the Knights a chance here. With both sides ranked in the bottom 2 for metre gains per carry and Newcastle sitting in the upper middle of the pack on missed tackle percentages I think taking the Knights as an underdog in the 5 way market is value here. I will also be placing a cover wager as well with, either team to win by 6 points or less incl a draw.

1) Newcastle Knights to win by margin 1-12, 1 unit @ 4-00
2) Either team to win by 6 points or less incl a draw, 1 unit @ 3-00

Good Luck.

RogueWeka
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Re: NRL Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs v Newcastle Knights

Postby RogueWeka » Sun Jul 09, 2017 7:59 am

Result Bulldogs won 20-18. (another Heartbreaker for the Knights)

Collect on

1) Either team to win by 6 points or less incl a draw, 1 unit @ 3-00 = return of 3-00 for a profit of 1 unit.

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