NRL Eels v Bulldogs.

RogueWeka
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NRL Eels v Bulldogs.

Postby RogueWeka » Wed Jun 28, 2017 12:16 pm

Both teams will be missing their captains for this match. Beau Scott(Eels) is gone for the season and James Graham(Bulldogs) is out for 4 weeks. Two other key forwards will be missing also, Kaysa Pritchard(Eels) and Greg Eastwood(Bulldogs) to give this match a leveling, and both have prominent players in Tepai Moeroa(Eels) and Bret Morris(Bulldogs) returning as well.
Looking for an edge here is difficult, but there are some interesting components to weigh up.
This match is a must win for both sides if they have any aspirations to make the finals playoffs. Parramatta sit in 8th place with 18 points and the Panthers(16), Warriors(16), and Raiders (14) are filling the next 3 positions. They play the Storm and Brisbane(2) in the following rounds along with some unpredictable wooden spoon contenders who are showing some glimpses of form, and with nothing to lose could upset an Eels side that has lacked consistency to date. The prospect for the Canterbury is even harder. Sitting 4th from bottom on 14 points and with Graham out for the next month, the Doggies are going to be pushing the proverbial uphill with the Knights, Broncos, and Panthers following this match before another encounter with the Eels. Finals football seems unlikely, and avoiding the race to the wooden spoon will be all they can salvage.
However.
Parramatta are coming of a 24-10 win over St George-Illawarra Dragons, and much has been heralded in the media of a solid win to the Eels. I didn't see it that way. The Dragons dominated the Eels in every meaningful stat that night and lost the match on being unable to cross the chalk or finish well worked plays. Further, if you saw the 1st half performance of St George against Newcastle on Sunday, where the Knights scored 6 tries in 13 minutes before the break, you would acknowledge that the Dragons are in a slump. The Eels were cleaned up in Darwin by The Cowboys 32-6 the round prior so we should not place too much emphasis on the Dragons victory.
The Bulldogs weren't much chop against the Warriors on Friday, losing 21-14, but they were certainly dominant through the middle and for only the handling errors in the greasy conditions they should have pressured the Warriors for the win. A yellow card to Josh Reynolds right on Halftime also didn't aid their chances either.
Bookies have Parramatta -6.5 (2-Way) favourites after opening at -4.5. The line moved immediately after the teams were announced, no doubt because of the injury to inspirational Canterbury Captain Graham. The -6.5 handicap is a difficult number, requiring Parra to win by at least 7 points, and with the Bulldogs fighting for their lives I think they can go close here. Add in the return of Bret Morris and the unpredictability of "Wildman" Josh Jackson they won't be lying down against an old foe that has taken their home games to ANZ stadium, also the Home ground of preference for Canterbury.

Securing a return on this match may not be difficult if way eliminate some potential outcomes. I can't see either side winning by more than 10 points so I'm going to favour three markets in this one. All available at bet365.

1: Either team to win by no more than 6 points; 2 units @ 2.75
2: Eels to win by 6-10 points; 1 unit @ 6.00
3: Bulldogs to win by 6-10 points; 1 unit @ 8.00

Option 1 returns a gain of 1.50
Option 2 returns a gain of 2.00
Option 3 returns a gain of 4.00

Effectively creating my own market- "No team to win by +11 points".

Lets see how this plays out.
Good Luck.

RogueWeka
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Re: NRL Eels v Bulldogs.Result

Postby RogueWeka » Thu Jun 29, 2017 11:52 am

Game Result: Parramatta Eels won 13-12 in Golden point.

Our winning wager was:

Option 1: Either team to win by no more than 6 points.

Return: 2u @ 2.75, = 5.5 units

Total Staked: 4 units (2,1,1) across 3 options

Profit: 1.75 units. :D

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