Who'll win the Rugby World Cup

garlicsauce
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Postby garlicsauce » Sat Sep 05, 2015 6:55 pm

group of death no doubt, but I fancied us to beat England with a full team!

jaydubs
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Postby jaydubs » Sat Sep 05, 2015 7:22 pm

I have to say I fancied Aus to miss out in the group of death ... however England despite being dominant today didn't really click... Wales are definitely up against it with Webb out .. he is the one person who has got the Welsh backs moving ... I guess 2 step Phillips will be back in now ...

If Halfpenny is gone as well then the pens the pack gets are not going be converted around 90% which halfpenny offers

Ireland looked a bit one dimensional today and when the high/box kick didn't work they ran out of ideas.. Conor Murray will be a big miss if he is out

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Postby bobslay13 » Sun Sep 06, 2015 10:13 am

Decent England performance against Ireland. I'm still really undecided on the winner. I've backed Ireland but yeah they aren't the full package so 9/1 is probably fair. Can't be getting with anyone to win any International sporting tournament at a price like 6/5 (New Zealand).

I also think the Aussies could be going home early. They've certainly not had the best summer in England have they! Big injuries for Wales now and Saffies not fairing too good either. So many doubts and negatives around everyone, I'm coming round to an England victory! :shock:
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garlicsauce
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Postby garlicsauce » Mon Sep 07, 2015 5:28 pm

Halfpenny definitely out with cruciate ligament damage! A blow to Wales's chances no doubt.

salop27
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Postby salop27 » Mon Sep 07, 2015 10:09 pm

Halfpenny is a sledgehammer blow for Wales. They have a very good replacement in Liam Williams, who might add a more attacking edge from 15. However, how fit will he be? Also you've lost Halfpennys goal kicking accuracy.
The main problem though is I thought Liam Williams would start on the wing, so Gatland needs a new winger and he hasn't got anymore in form. So I'd think maybe L.Williams would stay on the wing with Hallam Amos starting at fullback.
Amos is a good player but has virtually no international experience.

nors
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Postby nors » Tue Sep 15, 2015 3:44 pm

The blogging section on OLBG has thrown up some excellent RWC articles which may help members. Click the link for a read on bloggers opinions
http://www.olbg.com/blogs/index.php?c=16

Thanks to the following bloggers for their insight.

nellberg1
Randy Rann
scoobydoo68
wildbillsghost
Micko70

From the blogs came the following ideas

England in the "without New Zealand" market at 9/4
New Zealand & Ireland to contest the final at a 11/2 with BetVictor
Australia at 9/1 and Ireland at 10/1

Does the forum agree?

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Postby salop27 » Tue Sep 15, 2015 7:45 pm

I commented in more detail on page 1 of this thread.
I think the winner of Pool A has an extremely good chance of winning the whole thing.
Runners up in Pool A will likely face S.Africa and New Zealand in later rounds so Australia, England and Wales have it all to play for.

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Rugby World Cup 2015

Postby Randy Rann » Tue Sep 15, 2015 11:22 pm

Cheers Nors

I can't wait for the tournament to start and to be honest if I keep my discipline I think there is money to be made and hope a few of my fancies click.

I really fancy England and like you say, and what I put in my blog the 9-4 for England "without New Zealand" looks value compared to backing England Each Way at 5-1 or at 13-8 to reach the final.

However I think I've found another angle IF you really do, like me, fancy the hosts to go all the way.

Ladbrokes have offered a "at what stage you think England (& others obviously) will go out of the tournament" and have beaten finalist at 4-1 for England.

That has to be taken and then you can have the 5-1 or 9-2 to win elsewhere so basically if England do reach the final you land a minimum 4-1 punt!

Obviously England have to win the group for the easier route but that looks a faux pas by Ladbrokes to me.

It also gives you the insurance if somewhat unbelievably New Zealand get knocked out & another nation reaches the final with England!!

I've backed the NZ/Eng finalists at 9-2 too and if the hosts & the best team in the tournament click that has to be value too.

Anthony Watson at 33-1 looks a tasty bet too be top tryscorer as he will more than likely play all the games and does score trys for fun.

It's hard to be too confident but it might pay to stick with the obvious for now & trade out or have some cover bets if the Group stages start going awry!!

Anyway hope all olbg'ers enjoy the RWC & good luck to all in the tipping comp. Another £200 to go for is enough incentive to have a crack.

All the best

Randy

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Postby UnderdogsLover » Wed Sep 16, 2015 6:36 am

I t o can t wait tournament begin to..

Here my few bets going keep me going thru out tournament..
Am having faith with us England :) mentioned few pages back..
9/2 with PP.
We got to QF in last World Cup, know on home soil feel we
can go all the way..

Finalists am going for..
England V France 33/1 with Coral..
My value bet..
Going for France at 16/1 ..

So this will keep me interested thru out the tournament
I hope we will enjoy the World Cup, who ever we support..

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Swing low

Postby pedwards14 » Wed Sep 16, 2015 6:39 pm

England to win with that home support we will get to the final and probably come up against the Aussies again. It will be a tight final but we will win with super sub Danny Care making a break for the line in injury time. This will then enable Chris Robshaw to be up with Jess Ennis for sports personality of the year.

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Postby ken678 » Thu Sep 17, 2015 8:56 am

For an avid rugby follower of many years' standing an exciting week-end awaits.

On Saturday Alcester RFC take on Atherstone in their first league match of the season at the giddy height of Midlands West (South) Division 4, following their promotion last season. Things don't get much more exciting – or eagerly anticipated - than this.

In its way though the opening encounter of the World Cup on Friday is almost as tasty a prospect.

As a fan and and English one at that, I am hoping that the home side to emerge victorious at the end, though I must confess to very serious misgivings.

Irrespective of the final outcome I simply just don't see how they are second favourites for the whole shebang. There are a whole raft of concerns.

The centre pairing, one of the key areas in any side, have played together just once. Though there may have been “extenuating circumstances†it is extraordinary that after a four year preparation these two (fine players) take the field in tandem for only the second time ever. Part of the reason is the presence in the squad of Sam Burgess. An absolute Colossus on the rugby field but essentially (still) a League not a Union player. Good as anyone may be (and he is good, no doubt about that) it is asking an enormous amount that a player with mere handful of games be pitched into a contest at absolutely the highest level. Penalties given away by him in the warm up games were borne of a lack of appreciation of the different laws of the two codes – that could be ruinously expensive at this level.

On a similar tack Courtney Lawes is a fine player, but essentially a flawed one. He has recently successfully avoided the regular bouts of the red-mist which have peppered his earlier appearances. If that is permanent all to the good – if not it is a major concern and I for one won't believe that they are a thing of the past until I have seen there “non-appearance†when the heat is really on. These matches will be hard enough to win with 15 players, let alone 14.

And maybe my even greater concern is upfront generally. English teams, all the successful English teams, have typically been built on a pre-eminent pack. Forwards after all win ALL games. The girls in the backs get the glory but the blokes upfront get them the ball and no team ever, at any level, has won a game without the ball. [For those with a long memory the great Welsh sides of Gareth Edwards, JPR, Barry John et al, would not be remembered but for the efforts of a largely forgotten Pontypool front-row and the occasional psychopath in the second row.]

That England have had not only line-out problems (poor old hooker gets blamed as the thrower, it take 8 to tango!) but were beasted by France in the scrummage. Scary.

All that being said England have some wonderful players and may well prove me wholly wrong – and I sincerely hope they will, notwithstanding the fact that my only bet, so far, on the competition is to Lay England getting out of their group. I think they probably will but they certainly aren't the 1.2 shots I laid on Betfair.

Enough negativity – who wins it?

I have an genetic, innate, aversion to backing favourites and especially short-priced ones but in all conscience you can't, on all known form, look past NEW ZEALAND. The ability to play Union at the highest level seems to be part of their DNA. They have, I think, been favourites for every World Cup and have not won it more often than they have won it so that has to be a caveat – but it is (to use a tacky cliché!) theirs to lose. Disasters aside they have to be the pick. They have shown themselves the pick of the Southern Hemisphere yet again and there is no doubt that, yet again, the Northern Hemisphere are, overall, inferior to their southern neighbours.

One side which may have challenged on behalf of the North is WALES. They still may but the loss of both Leigh Halfpenny and the first pick scrum half is a tragedy. [Rubbish – this is sport and tragedy is over the top, but it is horrible.] Halfpenny though is, with the only possible exception of Paul O'Connell the Irish lock, the single most important home nations player and wherever your sympathies lie you cannot but feel desperately disappointed for him – missing his chance to perform on the world stage.

To pile cliché upon cliché I see FRANCE as the potential banana skin for all. 't would be no surprise if they fall at the first fence but with a prevailing wind I can see them lining up in the final to take on the All-Blacks. Their ability behind the scrum is almost a given but they have not forgotten that the pack win matches. They crushed England upfront in the warm-ups and provided (big proviso this) but provided they don't fall foul of the ref their pack will be a match for virtually everyone here. A back row that includes Picamoles and Dusautoir behind Pape and the (wonderfully appropriately named) Nicholas Mas upfront would put the fear of God up any opposition in any era.

FORECAST

GROUP WINNERS RUNNERS-UP

POOL A Australia Eng/Wales/Fiji*
POOL B South Africa Samoa
POOL C New Zealand Argentina
POOL D France Ireland

Quarter Final 1 S A vs Eng/Fiji/Wales SOUTH AFRICA
Quarter Final 2 New Zealand vs Ireland NEW ZEALAND
Quarter Final 3 France vs Argentina FRANCE
Quarter Final 4 Australia vs Samoa AUSTRALIA



Semi Final 1 South Af vs New Zealand NEW ZEALAND
Semi Final 2 France vs Australia FRANCE

Final New Zealand vs France Probably NZ, but at the prices I'll have a shekel on both to win it!


* Doesn't really matter – South Africa will beat them in the next stage!

nors
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Postby nors » Thu Sep 17, 2015 2:36 pm

Very brave Ken laying England not to get out of the group, even at such a short price.

The bookies know a certain high % of bets will be on England so they may be artificially short in the betting in relation to their true chances. + as the home team they do have some sort of advantage.

It will be a disaster for the tournament as a whole if England do not get out of the groups.

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