Did someone know Ostapenko would lose

meldettori
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Did someone know Ostapenko would lose

Postby meldettori » Fri Sep 29, 2017 11:41 am

I was surprised to see the odds favouring Barty, while shocked to see Ostapenko was not favourite to beat Barty.
It turned out the odds were justified, and Julia was beyond awful in the whole match. Good thing I didn't see it live, but on a replay.

Question is, did the odds compilers know something we didn't or maybe was just me not knowing she would be awful?
You just can't know this, well unless spirits inspired them to think that and inspired Barty to this fate of beating huge players.

Other questions would also be, did she exhibit this attitude or was tired during the win or after against Muguruza?
Yes, Barty beat a few players she would not have done in weeks past let alone months past.

No wonder Julia's coach just walked away. I know Anabel Medina-Garrigues, she was a fighter in her day and she told Julia to fight.. Then Osapenko said "No", and Anabel walked away. I wonder if that partnership will continue or Anabel would shrug it off.

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Re: Did someone know Ostapenko would lose

Postby PompeyJim » Fri Sep 29, 2017 1:23 pm

I didn't watch the match Mel but I find Jelena hard to judge ahead of a match that she may be expected to win or lose for that matter. She is a real talent as evidenced by her winning the French Open but i think she is a real live wire temperament wise and would never be sure what Jelena is 'turning up'. It never surprises me when she goes to a third set in her matches, and losing sets quite easily yet still going on to win I just feel she is a very up and down sort of character and get down on herself very easily if things are not going to plan.

As regards Barty, i think she could be a top 20 player sooner rather than later, she seems to have the game to potentially trouble the top players on a regular basis.

Also I find this stage of the season very tricky to call and many underdogs seem to win (may be wrong), would you agree ?

I thought Pella was a good example today against Taylor Fritz, I guess many would have had Taylor as their favourite, decent serve on his preferred surface against a clay court specialist but Guido has had some decent wins recently on the hard courts and is superior ranked to Fritz so perhaps not too much of a shock.

Some players have had a long hard season and may have lost that fitness edge and fatigue creeps in generally.
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Re: Did someone know Ostapenko would lose

Postby danbradley » Fri Sep 29, 2017 2:02 pm

I don't know about you guys, I am not a massive follower of the regular tennis season, but I often notice that when a player causes a semi-large upset they, more often than not, tend to go and lose the next game to an inferior opponent. I am thinking more in things like Grand Slams and probably slightly larger upsets than we are talking here, but I have noticed a trend. It is something I had considered testing before, but never got round to as simply don't follow tennis closely enough.

Perhaps it is the come down after such an adrenalin-fuelled victory, or because of the extra effort and energy used to gain that famous win? Perhaps it is hard to motivate yourself to play a lesser opponent after building yourself up to face a stronger foe, and maybe your victory makes you more of a target for your next opponent? Or perhaps I am imagining things!

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Re: Did someone know Ostapenko would lose

Postby meldettori » Fri Sep 29, 2017 4:46 pm

@Pompeyjim Yes, I find it hard to understand how Peter Gojowczyk for example is now one of the best players in only under 2-4 weeks. Just as I couldn't believe how Barty is playing beating all these higher ranked than her. She does have a game and good baseline strokes, but in tennis is also a game of unforced errors. Pliskova was just out of place in her match against her, whereas Ostapenko was out of order with her game and attitude.

Perhaps someone had a lucky day in the odds making world and thought to chance with Barty. I found many players that had no business being favourite in a match, lose, and I had a hunch about 2 of them these past few week, just no consistency though.

@danbradley Yes that trend was going on for years, still do but much lesser extent as to next match. It does happen maybe from one tourney to another, a winner or finalist in one, loser in Round 1 the next, that has often happened this year.

Simona Halep was touted as a potential winner this week.. she failed so miserably, it put Ostapenko in a better light. They should go play in the challengers to get some motivation back :lol:

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