ATP Week Commencing 17/04/2017

rustie
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ATP Week Commencing 17/04/2017

Postby rustie » Sun Apr 16, 2017 2:33 am

I think we only have one tournament across both main tours this week but what a tournament it is!

Monte Carlo Masters 1000

Although I'm expecting two of Djokovic, Nadal and Murray to make the final, I've tipped a couple of outsiders. I think with Djokovic's form and Murray's injury that it's probably worth doing that. Nadal is defending champion but he's beatable, imo.

Zverev 40/1
Although it's very unlikely, if Djokovic or Nadal don't make the final from their half then I think it'll be Zverev that takes advantage. He'd face Nadal first out of the two in the QF and both their previous matches have been close despite defeats, with him serving for the match against Nadal in their first meeting and going to five sets in Melbourne this year so he's capable of competing with the Spaniard. Djokovic is on a bit of a downer and although I'm struggling to see Zverev beating him, it'll be their first meeting and Djokovic lost to Vesely here last year so who knows!

Murray may not come through the other half and Zverev has beaten Wawrinka and Tsonga (who are in that half) already this year.
Tsonga 28/1 EW
I am more confident of this bet.

He made the SF last year and is in Murray's half. He'd have to beat Wawrinka in the QF probably and that would be tough given their recent meetings but Jo's last win over him did come here and he'd have the crowd behind him whilst we know Stan is inconsistent. He's never met Murray on clay so despite the head to head being against him, that could be to his benefit and we don't know how Murray's going to cope in this tournament anyway.

Probably wouldn't win the final but worth backing EW I think.
For tomorrow as it's a Sunday start, I've gone:

Goffin 2-0 @1.6 v Darcis
Mayer +4.5 Games @1.8 v Sousa
Simon -3.5 Games @1.98 v Jaziri

undertherobe
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Re: ATP Week Commencing 17/04/2017

Postby undertherobe » Sun Apr 16, 2017 10:45 am

Good luck rustie. Certainly no value in going with Djokovic or Murray. They're definitely suffering at the moment. It'll be interesting to see how Nadal gets on against Federer if they meet on clay this sunmer.

If Nadal transfers his early season form onto clay then he could well be back to his unstoppable best on this surface

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Re: ATP Week Commencing 17/04/2017

Postby undertherobe » Sun Apr 16, 2017 9:21 pm

Carreno-Busta is 4/6 to beat Fognini tomorrow. He's 4-0 in the head to head, including 2-0 on clay and has already beaten the Italian once on clay in 2017

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Re: ATP Week Commencing 17/04/2017

Postby rustie » Sun Apr 16, 2017 10:04 pm

Carreno-Busta is 4/6 to beat Fognini tomorrow. He's 4-0 in the head to head, including 2-0 on clay and has already beaten the Italian once on clay in 2017
Looks good, if only Fognini didn't defy logic!

I've made the following tips for tomorrow:

Under 20.5 Games Tomic v Schwartzman @1.72
Baustista-Agut 2-0 v Basilashvili @1.53
Cuevas v Troicki @1.53
A Zverev 2-0 v Seppi @1.60
Evans v Edmund @4.59 (PUNT OF THE DAY)
Klizan v Almagro @1.67
Mannarino v Garcia-Lopez @2.50
Carreno Busta v Fognini @1.67


- Tomic can't play on clay and shows no signs of changing that.
- RBA has won 44 of his last 50 matches against players ranked 51+ and as won nine of his 11 matches against those players in 2017 in straight sets.
- Troicki doesn't perform great at Monte Carlo.
- Seppi has lost 48 of his last 55 matches against top 20 players. Lost in straight sets to the last three players he's faced under 21 years of age.
- Evans can't play on clay I know but Edmund has no form and should never really be a @1.25 shot against Evans.
- Almagro got a few injury problems. No result would surprise me there.
- Garcia-Lopez lost 15 of his last 17 ATP main draw matches.
- As UTR said above

:win:

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Re: ATP Week Commencing 17/04/2017

Postby undertherobe » Thu Apr 20, 2017 7:18 am

Some good looking matches in Monte Carlo today. Zverev vs Nadal is the pick of the bunch for me although the only one I'm getting involved in is the Berdych - Cilic match. Although a few years ago, Berdych has won both meetings on clay against the Croatian and I think his game suits the surface more. He's also had a better start to the year and as the slight underdog, is where the value lies for me

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