ATP & WTA week commencing 27/02/17

undertherobe
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ATP & WTA week commencing 27/02/17

Postby undertherobe » Sun Feb 26, 2017 9:40 pm

The big hitters on the men's tour are back with two ATP 500 events this week although is Djokovic swerving his rivals by taking a wildcard in Mexico rather than head to the Gulf with Murray, Wawrinka and Federer?

ATP Tour

Dubai (ATP 500, Hard)
Acapulco (ATP 500, Hard)
Sao Paulo (ATP 250, Clay)

WTA Tour

Acapulco (WTA International, Hard)
Kuala Lumpur (WTA International, Hard)

Discussion and Selections below

Please use separate thread for the lower tier events

http://www.olbg.com/forum/topic15_54154.html

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Re: ATP & WTA week commencing 27/02/17

Postby undertherobe » Sun Feb 26, 2017 10:54 pm

Dubai

Andy Murray & Stan Wawrinka are the top two seeds in Dubai with Murray scheduled to meet Federer in the SFs and Wawrinka to meet Monfils. With Murray (7/4) and Federer (7/2) heading the betting, I'm going to look to the bottom half of the draw for my tournament pick here.

2016 was a tournament of shocks with two unseeded players reaching the semi-finals but I don't think we'll see the same level of shocks this year. Tomas Berdych has a record of F,F,SF,QF over the last 4 years and whilst that gets me somewhat interested, he is scheduled to run in Wawrinka in the last eight this year and he's lost the last 6 meetings with the Swiss. To complement a win only bet on Wawrinka, I've got my eye on Monfils. He'll be disappointed with a QF defeat in Marseille as the top seed and if he's got his head screwed on right, he's in the right half of the draw to make some waves.

Stan Wawrinka @ 11/2 (Betfair)
Gael Monfils @ 11/1 e/w (Betfred)

Acapulco

Bookies seem to be slow pricing up this event but with Djokovic and Nadal as the top seeds, I expect the market to be dominated by those two. However, Djokovic could face Del Potro in round two and despite the 4-11 h2h record, Delpo beat Djokovic on hard courts last year and with doubts over Djokovic's current form, I couldn't put anyone off a small bet on the Argentine. Kyrgios and Thiem are also in that top half of the draw so it's certainly not going to be easy for Djokovic.

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Re: ATP & WTA week commencing 27/02/17

Postby undertherobe » Mon Feb 27, 2017 12:20 pm

As expected, Djokovic (13/8) & Nadal (3/1) head the betting in Acapulco with Del Potro, Cilic & Kyrgios next up at 12/1.

Given that the draw is heavily stacked in the top half, I might make Nadal my pick here as if he shows anything like the form & tenacity he showed in Melbourne, he should come through unscathed into Sunday's Final

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Re: ATP & WTA week commencing 27/02/17

Postby titans choice » Mon Feb 27, 2017 7:55 pm

Adrien Mannarino is ranked at number 65th in the world and he is taking on Taylor Fritz who is ranked at 136 and Fritz is favourite and i know he has the better record at this event playing it once and making it to the quarter-finals and Mannarino has played here 3 times losing in the first round 2 times and making to the last 16 last year.But these 2 players have played once and Mannarino won that match but that was played on grass but since he won that match i think he might have a chance of causing a upset in this match.

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Re: ATP & WTA week commencing 27/02/17

Postby rustie » Tue Feb 28, 2017 1:34 am

I think Mannarino is good value too.

Having said that, I've gone for a treble of Fritz, Escobedo and Lopez which pays just over 3/1.

I think the surface probably hinders Mannarino because he likes to redirect the pace off his opponents shots so a slower surface may mean he struggles to generate enough power. He's also 0-5 on the main tour this year and Fritz has come through a couple of qualifying matches.

Escobedo leads head to head 2-0 over Kozlov and this is a good opportunity for him after some tough draws.

Lopez should beat Thompson.

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Re: ATP & WTA week commencing 27/02/17

Postby titans choice » Tue Feb 28, 2017 1:47 am

Steve Johnson has now beaten John Isner 3 times in a row he now looks like he is definitely USA number 2 player behind Jack Sock.

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Re: ATP & WTA week commencing 27/02/17

Postby undertherobe » Thu Mar 02, 2017 8:59 pm

So much for Dubai not having as many upsets as last year :? It's Andy Murray's to lose and despite playing for nearly 3 hours today, he'll have 24 hours to recover.

Nadal & Djokovic on a collision course in Mexico as expected although Nadal has looked much more comfortable so far and Djokovic faces a tougher test in the QFs against the self-styled bad boy of tennis, Nick Kyrgios.

I was surprised to see this is their first meeting and I'll be taking some of the 19/10 with BWin that this goes the distance. I feel that this is the sort of match that Kyrgios can raise his game for and actually focus from start to finish and I still have doubts over where Djokovic is mentally.

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Re: ATP & WTA week commencing 27/02/17

Postby rustie » Fri Mar 03, 2017 2:15 am

Question to the forumers.

I tipped Verdasco @67 E/W to make the final.

If he makes it and lose the final, how would this effect LSP?

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Re: ATP & WTA week commencing 27/02/17

Postby undertherobe » Fri Mar 03, 2017 6:47 am

Question to the forumers.

I tipped Verdasco @67 E/W to make the final.

If he makes it and lose the final, how would this effect LSP?
All depends what the e/w terms are.

If it's 1/2 odds then a 1pt e/w bet would return 34.5 points (32.5 point profit)

If it's 1/3 odds then a 1pt e/w bet would return 23.33 points (21.33 point profit)

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Re: ATP & WTA week commencing 27/02/17

Postby rustie » Fri Mar 03, 2017 8:42 am

Question to the forumers.

I tipped Verdasco @67 E/W to make the final.

If he makes it and lose the final, how would this effect LSP?
All depends what the e/w terms are.

If it's 1/2 odds then a 1pt e/w bet would return 34.5 points (32.5 point profit)

If it's 1/3 odds then a 1pt e/w bet would return 23.33 points (21.33 point profit)
Thanks UTR

I've had a few in the past and the LSP has always been added a little oddly for me. It might be because they were 1/3 rather than 1/2 odds.

I'll be annoyed if he doesn't beat Robin bloody Haase now!

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Re: ATP & WTA week commencing 27/02/17

Postby rustie » Mon Mar 06, 2017 6:44 pm

Question to the forumers.

I tipped Verdasco @67 E/W to make the final.

If he makes it and lose the final, how would this effect LSP?
All depends what the e/w terms are.

If it's 1/2 odds then a 1pt e/w bet would return 34.5 points (32.5 point profit)

If it's 1/3 odds then a 1pt e/w bet would return 23.33 points (21.33 point profit)
My LSP is 16 from that tip, any clue why?

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Re: ATP & WTA week commencing 27/02/17

Postby undertherobe » Mon Mar 06, 2017 6:58 pm

Hi rustie,

Was your bet 0.5 points e/w? That would give you an LSP of 16.25 at 67/1 if the e/w terms were 1/2 odds.

Great tip by the way :win:

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