ATP & WTA week commencing 06/02/16

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ATP & WTA week commencing 06/02/16

Postby undertherobe » Sun Feb 05, 2017 10:08 pm

The men are back in action on the main tour this week after the Davis Cup took centre stage last week whilst it's the women's turn for the team competition with the Fed Cup getting underway.

ATP Tour

Sofia (ATP 250, Indoor Hard)
Montpellier (ATP 250, Indoor Hard)
Quito (ATP 250, Clay)

Discussion and Selections below

Please use separate thread for the lower tier events

http://www.olbg.com/forum/topic15_54154.html

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Re: ATP & WTA week commencing 06/02/16

Postby undertherobe » Sun Feb 05, 2017 10:15 pm

QUITO

Ivo Karlovic is the top seed here and whilst 16/1 for the top seed is a very attractive price, I have no desire to back the big server on the clay. Paolo Lorenzi is the 3rd seed but at the time of writing this is still on court in the Davis Cup having suffered rain delays all day in his crucial 4th rubber so his preparation probably isn't the best. Thomaz Bellucci is one to keep any eye on. Yet to win a match this season but he reached the final here last year and 114 of his 157 main tour wins have come on clay whilst 6 of his 7 finals have also come on clay.

Bellucci e/w @ 10/1 (bet365)

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Re: ATP & WTA week commencing 06/02/16

Postby jbsouz » Mon Feb 06, 2017 1:46 pm

2 PICKS FOR THE ATP QUITO:

GIRALDO -4games over BECKER @ 1.59 pinnacle
expect it to be an easy win for the clay court specialist Giraldo against veteran Becker who is at his best on faster hard courts

VELOTTI over EBDEN @ 1.5 Ladbrokes (1.47 pinnacle)
Ebden has no results on clay, Velotti is a very experienced clay courter with a lot of good results in Challengers.

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Re: ATP & WTA week commencing 06/02/16

Postby jbsouz » Thu Feb 09, 2017 10:46 am

2 PICKS FOR TODAY:

MONTPELLIER TSONGA over 13 GAMES VS. HERBERT @ 1.96 pinnacle
SOFIA DIMITROV over 12.5 GAMES VS. JANOWICS @ 1.74 pinnacle

Expect wins for the favorites, but in the first matches after Aus. Open, expect relatively close matches against good fast court players.

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Re: ATP & WTA week commencing 06/02/16

Postby botev1921 » Thu Feb 09, 2017 1:10 pm

Some observations from Sofia over the first rounds as the favs are starting today. Yesterday we saw Goffin play for the first time and he was all over the court against Radu Albot, losing a set. He surely did not look comfortable out there and I guess would fall eventually. Gilles Muller was looking good in both his matches so far but the level of opposition was mediocre as Youzhny looked a ball of nerves today and could not put up much of a fight after taking an early lead. It was Muller tuning his game from the fifth game of the first set all the way till the end. On these pretty hard courts, he could show more for sure against Bautista-Agut, who is the defending champion. Klizan is looking pretty good so far with two solid wins and provided Thiem makes it past Basilashvili (not a certainty if the Georgian plays the same way he did yesterday), I would be interested in laying him. That brings us to Grigor Dimitrov, who opens up his campaign in a couple of hours. He has been doing a lot of media work the past few days and I would be very much intrigued in how he handles Janowicz, who as we know can be very dangerous if his head is in the match and his serve % are high. The pressure will be on Dimitrov to deliver on home soil and there is every chance the match is close.
Last edited by botev1921 on Thu Feb 09, 2017 8:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: ATP & WTA week commencing 06/02/16

Postby undertherobe » Thu Feb 09, 2017 5:25 pm

Thanks for the insight botev. Are you at the tournament? Nice to see Darcis continuing his excellent form from the Davis Cup at the weekend.

Looking at Quito, Estrella Burgos is the 2 time defending champion so has plenty of motivation to improve on his early season performances. He is 6/5 to beat Karlovic tonight, whose big serve is somewhat nullified by the clay.

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Re: ATP & WTA week commencing 06/02/16

Postby botev1921 » Thu Feb 09, 2017 8:11 pm

Yes I am. Here are some pics from today. As expected Thiem struggled and lost to Basilashvili.

Image

Image

Image

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Re: ATP & WTA week commencing 06/02/16

Postby botev1921 » Fri Feb 10, 2017 12:01 pm

Baring any serious upsets in Sofia, I would say the final should be Bautista-Agut v Dimitrov. The defending champion looks great, very precise with his shots, very solid on serve, he just beat Muller. Dimitrov did not do that well last night and needed three sets but his matches are expected to be easier as Thiem is out and as long as he beats Troicki, his path to the final is open.

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Re: ATP & WTA week commencing 06/02/16

Postby botev1921 » Sat Feb 11, 2017 11:55 am

What a tournament it is in Sofia - the utterly unknown Basilashvili is in the semis against Dimitrov and boy, can he play. The Georgian recovered yesterday from 0:6 to beat Klizan, who was known for not winning a match between July last year and January. Dimitrov, however, with the home crowd behind him, should prove too strong for Basilashvili in my views and the Georgian shows nerves when his forehand doesn't go in. As for the other semi-final, Goffin plays Bautista Agut and the Spaniard has been much more impressive so far. Goffin had a lot of problems against Albot before seeing off Darcis, who was simply tired from his Davis Cup heroics. I would say Agut v Dimitrov in the final tomorrow in form this week is something to go by. Sell out crowd is expected today for the first time during the tournament after 10 000 showed up yesterday for the Dimitrov match and 8000 the day before.
The Balkan mentality seems to show, however, as there have been numerous complains about noise between the serves of Dimitrov opponents. Yesterday at one point half the crowd screamed OUT and confused both players and the referee. Ironically, the outburst cost Dimitrov the point.

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Re: ATP & WTA week commencing 06/02/16

Postby botev1921 » Sat Feb 11, 2017 3:00 pm

Incredible match between Bautista Agut and Goffin and it is the Belgian who comes back to win in a third set tie-break. Agut looked fresh late in the match but a vicious exchange of breaks in the third and constant switch of momentum led to the tie-break where Goffin showed more concentration. Goffin spent 2 hours and 45 minutes on court, so unless the other match goes the distance as well, whoever he plays should be fresher tomorrow.

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Re: ATP & WTA week commencing 06/02/16

Postby rustie » Sat Feb 11, 2017 10:48 pm

Incredible match between Bautista Agut and Goffin and it is the Belgian who comes back to win in a third set tie-break. Agut looked fresh late in the match but a vicious exchange of breaks in the third and constant switch of momentum led to the tie-break where Goffin showed more concentration. Goffin spent 2 hours and 45 minutes on court, so unless the other match goes the distance as well, whoever he plays should be fresher tomorrow.
You going to the final, pal?

Hard to see past Dimitrov winning for me. He's been playing well prior to the tournament anyway so the fact it's in his home country gives him an unnecessary advantage.

The head to head (5-0 to Dimitrov) pretty much backs up what I think about this match up. Dimitrov has a lot more to his strokes in terms of placement and penetration than Goffin has.

I'm going to back Dimitrov 2-0 at around evens on that one.
QUITO

Ivo Karlovic is the top seed here and whilst 16/1 for the top seed is a very attractive price, I have no desire to back the big server on the clay. Paolo Lorenzi is the 3rd seed but at the time of writing this is still on court in the Davis Cup having suffered rain delays all day in his crucial 4th rubber so his preparation probably isn't the best. Thomaz Bellucci is one to keep any eye on. Yet to win a match this season but he reached the final here last year and 114 of his 157 main tour wins have come on clay whilst 6 of his 7 finals have also come on clay.

Bellucci e/w @ 10/1 (bet365)
I didn't back anything this week but I was thinking a Ramos-Karlovic final.

Can't believe Estrella is doing it in Quito again. Any idea what his tournament odds were? I'm sure they were over @20/1 when he defended the title last year.

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Re: ATP & WTA week commencing 06/02/16

Postby botev1921 » Sat Feb 11, 2017 11:27 pm

Incredible match between Bautista Agut and Goffin and it is the Belgian who comes back to win in a third set tie-break. Agut looked fresh late in the match but a vicious exchange of breaks in the third and constant switch of momentum led to the tie-break where Goffin showed more concentration. Goffin spent 2 hours and 45 minutes on court, so unless the other match goes the distance as well, whoever he plays should be fresher tomorrow.
You going to the final, pal?

Hard to see past Dimitrov winning for me. He's been playing well prior to the tournament anyway so the fact it's in his home country gives him an unnecessary advantage.

The head to head (5-0 to Dimitrov) pretty much backs up what I think about this match up. Dimitrov has a lot more to his strokes in terms of placement and penetration than Goffin has.

I'm going to back Dimitrov 2-0 at around evens on that one.
QUITO

Ivo Karlovic is the top seed here and whilst 16/1 for the top seed is a very attractive price, I have no desire to back the big server on the clay. Paolo Lorenzi is the 3rd seed but at the time of writing this is still on court in the Davis Cup having suffered rain delays all day in his crucial 4th rubber so his preparation probably isn't the best. Thomaz Bellucci is one to keep any eye on. Yet to win a match this season but he reached the final here last year and 114 of his 157 main tour wins have come on clay whilst 6 of his 7 finals have also come on clay.

Bellucci e/w @ 10/1 (bet365>)
I didn't back anything this week but I was thinking a Ramos-Karlovic final.

Can't believe Estrella is doing it in Quito again. Any idea what his tournament odds were? I'm sure they were over @20/1 when he defended the title last year.

I think so too on Dimitrov. Goffin was reported to be tired last week, hence not playing Davis Cup and he looked exhausted at times in his semi-final. Basilashvili kept Dimitrov on court for onlu 58 minutes, so I guess 2:0 Grigor makes sense.

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