Is Tennis worth betting on seriously ?

wonderwall
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Postby wonderwall » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:06 am

Exactly right Jack, that's what the original poster was wanting to know.

vilmayoung
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Is Tennis worth betting on seriously ?

Postby vilmayoung » Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:28 am

I believe the greatest way to make a little bit out of Tennis, is to reach bet.

mostly if a hot favorite struggles at the start, enhance your luck. :win: :yes:

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Re: Is Tennis worth betting on seriously ?

Postby Notsofastmyfriend » Tue Nov 01, 2016 8:03 pm

I have been betting on tennis for 16 years. So I think I am in an excellent position to advise the OP.
Yes, tennis is worth betting on seriously. I do just that myself.
But there are some things one needs to do, in order to consistently make profit.
As with all gambling, never chase your losses.
Upsets can, and do happen; and one must take the win or loss with no emotion. Never let your heart rule your head.
Personally I would advise you never bet on women's tennis. They are more hormonal, less reliable, and more prone to upsets.
Avoid betting the lower tournaments, and stick to the main ATP ranking ones and grand slams.
Reason being, the lower tournaments are dirtier and more prone to fixing and upsets.
Yes, upsets do happen with grand slams; but less so. Favourites often win consistently.
Its not as easy as baking the top three in every match, one must study form.
Use head to head statistics, but not only to pick your bet. Also consider current form, and watch the news and Twitter for injuries.
Something else one can do is this.
Wait, and let a favourite go the first set down. Then lump on at enhanced odds that have drifted.
Personally I only back the top four in the grand slams, all the way through from start to finish.
I do on occasion back other ATP ranking tournaments, for specific reasons.
Such as Djokovic not being in the; China Open, Shanghai Masters, Vienna Open. I backed Murray all the way through on them respectively.
So one can do that, but stick to a fixed stake on every match.
If you apply these methods, then you will make a profit consistently long-term; as I have for 16 years.
I would also advise you start off with a bank of say 1000, and back say 100 per match; and stick to it.
Don't ever be tempted to lump on more than your fixed stake, and never risk more than 10% of your total bank on any one match.
You will suffer upsets, and 10% loss is easier to move on from than 100% loss.
Above all else, know when to close your laptop and walk away. Go for a walk and get some fresh air; and forget the loss as soon as possible.
You will have nightmare runs, when 3 days in a row etc, every favourite is upset and you lose.
But remember, favourites in grand slams win more often than not; and any run of bad luck is temporary not permanent.
The more time you spend researching and studying form; the more you will win consistently.
Don't ever just lump on blindly because you see Djokovic is 1.1 v a 20 seed at odds of 5.0 etc. Study form, study media, and if in any doubt walk away.
I say all this after 16 years, real gamblers will talk about their losses as well as their wins. Don't ever follow tipsters; make your own mind up.
If all you do is back the top 4, in grand slams, male only; then you will do well long-term.
Upsets in the top 4 happen much less than lower down the rankings, and at the start of tournaments.
Also aim for long-term consistent profit. A classic mistake I see many novice gamblers make is that they try to start off with a bank that is too small.
They don't stick to a fixed amount like 10% of their bank; and then inevitably chase losses and lose their bank quickly.
Keep a cool head, and be disciplined; at all times. If you don't have 2-3 hours free per day to study form for a bet; then walk away.
Bet again when you have more time to study form before the match.
I have made consistent long-term profit over the 16 years, but the more time I put in, say 8 hours per day compared to 2 hours equates directly to profit margin. In simple terms, the more time one puts in, the more one will win.
Tennis betting is better than betting on other sports such as boxing or football with 3 possible outcomes. With tennis its 50/50 win or lose. But with 3 outcome sports draws can and do happen; often 33% of the time.
But another factor one needs to consider with tennis; is often if a player retires (due to injury etc) bookies will void ones bet. Some will pay out a win if your man was a set up etc. But some won't if they were both on 2 sets etc. Players can and do retire, so expect it; and don't get emotional when your dead cert favourite retires. This is a typical time when the novice then quickly lumps on a more riskier bet without having studied the form and loses as a result.
Above all else have days off. There will be days when I just don't fancy any of the matches, so know when to recognise the value/liability isn't there.
A simple thing is to take breaks, don't sit at your laptop for 8 hours studying form or watching live streams. Personally I study form, bet, then walk away for the day. I don't watch unless its a match I want to back when the favourite goes the first set down etc.
Watching live streams can be both a blessing and a curse. One needs willpower not to make freak decisions based on impulse.
Sometimes funny things happen, and it can appear your man is getting hammered 40-0 etc, and naturally you panic and cash out etc. But had you been out for a walk, and let it run its course; then it may well have won 2-1 in the end.
So it may be best to do as I do, and don't watch all the live streams and bet in play. I prefer to back then leave it run full term win or lose.
Personally I never lay, never arb, never trade in play. I keep it simple, and back the favourite to win.
I hope my advice is of good use to you, and wish you the best of luck should you decide to bet on tennis.
To be honest with you, other than gambling; I have not interest in it at all. 16 years ago it became my main source or income; so I started to spend more time studying it in order to consistently make profit long-term. My modus operandi has worked thus far.
I find others follow the same or similar methods as I, but its not from my influence; its more a case of trial and error. They start off backing womens tennis and dirty low tournaments; before learning the hard way as I did.
Top four, favourites, men's only, grand slams; you won't go too far wrong. Trust me.
Enjoy your winnings.

wonderwall
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Re: Is Tennis worth betting on seriously ?

Postby wonderwall » Wed Nov 02, 2016 3:16 pm

Hi, that's pretty solid advice, it is pretty handy and should help all newbies.

When you say that they should have a bank of £ 1,000, whilst they are finding their feet, wouldn't it be better to have a bank of £ 100 or actually £ 10, whilst they figure out what's what, they're quite likely to end up with their 1st bank severely dented, if not gone, in this learning phase ?

Also, I'd say that the women's game is as predictable as the men's now, I definitely would avoid the lower tournaments, there are some very strange results when you look down there.

I alo like betting on the Favourite when they are a set down, or a break down, in-play. You get much better odds and they really ought to be able to break back and go forth - if you've done the research, some of them can't come back.

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Re: Is Tennis worth betting on seriously ?

Postby Notsofastmyfriend » Fri Nov 04, 2016 10:54 am

Starting off with a bank that is too small; say £100 and making £10 bets is a common mistakes new gamblers make.
One needs to spread bet, say 10 matches, £100 each. Profit quickly builds up then, and consistently.
Betting smaller amounts will just delay that process; taking 12 months rather than 2 months etc.
Favourites typically run around 1.1-1.5 odds often, so one can make £10-£50 on every match then.
There may well be an upset in one of the ten, but the margin on the 10 bets will more than cover the £100 liability.
Worse case say ones 10 bets all win at only 1.1, well that's £100 clear profit that day, or nearer £500 if they were around 1.5's.
One will have bad runs, losing 3 matches in a row, or even days in a row. Funny things can, and do happen.
But in the Grand Slams upsets are rarer than dirty fixed lower ranking tournaments.
In simpler terms, the top 4 seeds are less prone to upset or fixing, so results are more predictable and consistent over a season.
I disagree that women's tennis is as predictable. I think less so, and upsets more likely as statistics show. In finals the underdog wins, and wins more often than the favourite in men's matches. That is dangerous liability on one's £100 bet you see. Better to look for value v liability; and there is none better than a men's final for that.
You do correctly assert betting when the favourite is a set down is profitable. This is my favourite modus operandi.
Its quite common for Murray and Djokovic to go the first set down, then win the second and third. So often one can start with low value odds of 1.1 etc, but when they go a set down lump on at enhanced odds of say 1.5.
For someone new, I would say stick to the top 4 seeds, and stick to the Grand Slam's only. Back the favourites only, and more often than not, one will make consistent profit. Its rare for a 1.1 favourite to be upset by a 2.5 etc. So although the value may look low, the liability is very low too. Always try to look for the long term value consistently, and be patient. Its better to have 10 bets on looking for £10 profit each, and clear £100 that day. Rather than lump on one match that upsets, chasing a quick profit or worse still; chasing a loss.
My advice is, if one only has a small bank of say £100, and wants to test £10 bets, then don't. Its better to just do paper bets at home first; and learn from that. Learn to walk before you can run.
I learned the hard way 16 years ago, rather like serving an apprenticeship. Trial and error really. I used to back the lower ranking tournaments, and women's matches. I too started with a small bank and tried to build it up fast with higher liability bets. I also used to chase losses, as often new gambler do.
But I quickly learned the more form study I put in, the more profit turned. And the more controlled, disciplined, and less emotional I was the better really.
I consider myself successful, and the main reason is this. I have no interest in tennis as a fan whatsoever. Watching tennis bores me; whether I have a financial interest in it or not. I feel apathetic whether Djokovic beats Murray etc. And to be successful this is precisely the apathy that serves one best.
Gamblers often let their heart rule their heads, and back on that basis. Often making mistakes as a result. They are a fan of Murray for example, so back him as they want him to win. One needs to look at the match objectively, not as a fan of either man. Totally disconnect emotionally from the two opponents. I simply look at them both, and say; who will win? Not, who do I want to win? This is the key thing, having the wisdom to know the difference between wanting them to win, and who will win.
This may surprise you, but I don't watch any tennis at all now. I just study the statistics and form then bet. I back the favourite then walk away and leave them to it. Unless its one of those matches where its likely the favourite will go the first set down, then I will wait and watch until that happens. But its on Flashscore looking at the numbers, rather than the live stream.
I want to say avoid live streaming. Reason being, often it will be broadcast with a lag or delay. A 30 second or worse delay in play can be disasterous for a tennis gambler. One needs instant information on the score. So I use Flashscore, with no lag like a live stream.
I say this as I know some very good, high-level gamblers that prefer to bet in play. Nothing wrong with that, but they have come unstuck when the live stream crashes or freezes at crucial match points. It isn't funny when one has lumped on at a tie break, and the stream stops. One needs to have that instant live data to weigh up liability/value at the precise point.
So I prefer my plan B, which is to bet before the match usually; then go out for the day. I like to get all my 10 bets on and do other things. Watching a laptop and screaming at it, won't change the result either way; so I don't bother. Its 50/50 win or lose, always remember that. But with favourites in Grand Slams, it can be more like 70/30 win or lose, or even 80/20. So one will turn a profit whether one stays in and stares at a laptop 8 hours per day or goes out; that's the reality.
My point is this, putting in 8 hours form study before a match is more important than watching live tennis 8 hours after a bet is on. Better to study form and statistics and watch no tennis really. If nothing else, head to head data will give one an insight; especially relative to surface. Clay/grass/hard; often players will favour a surface, and the odds can be out; by bookies just setting odds on the head to head stats.
Most importantly of all, know when not to bet. If one has a bad feeling, or is simply unsure of a bet; then walk away. Knowing when the value isn't there, is as important; if not more, as knowing when it is.
There are days I do not bet at all, I just don't consider the value v liability to be in the margin I like. But no matter what, I always stick to the same stake; 10% of my bank. Always. Over the years one will not feel anything over a 10% loss, and get over it quickly. But a 50% or 100% loss? More difficult of course.
So I prefer to keep my liability down to 10%, and look for profit margin between 10% and 50% per match. Thus far, this modus operandi works.
Upsets do happen, and I have lost 10% on matches. But the same day I have also won 10% on other matches, so the damage is limited.
One last thing, never give tips or ask for them. Its a quick route to the poorhouse. I get asked for tips frequently, but never give them. Reason being, its the same as giving a homeless person food. Long term it doesn't help them to support themselve. They just continue you to be dependent on the feeder.
I see many new gambler relying on tipsters; rather than honing their craft, serving their time, as I did learning the hard way through trial an error.
Remember this, often successful gamblers will be approached by bookies to affiliate market for them on Twitter. They tip free, and you follow. But they are on the payroll of a bookie, and not staking their own bank on the tips they are giving. So win or lose, they are apathetic on whether their tips win.
There is a difference being a professional gambler, and affiliate marketer for a bookie giving tips. Sounds obvious, but I see many new gambler follow the said tipsters on Twitter, and worse still pay for membership for tips. My advice is don't pay for tips.
I hope my advice is of use to you. I say it based on personal experience over the last 16 years, and turning a consistent profit long term over that time.
Gambling isn't for everyone, its the highest of highs and the lowest of lows. So if you aren't able to cope with that, then it's best not to gamble.

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Re: Is Tennis worth betting on seriously ?

Postby Alexander3561 » Tue Nov 08, 2016 3:51 am

People are making good money betting on Tennis.
Just read a great book on Amazon-
Tennis Betting for a Living.
12% return each year over the past 5 years.
Back-Tested over 20,000 matches.
The returns are there. Just need to follow the plan.
I guess tennis is worth betting seriously if you have the right approach.
Otherwise, play it safe and buy mutual funds and stocks.

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Re: Is Tennis worth betting on seriously ?

Postby RhodyJoe » Tue Nov 08, 2016 1:09 pm

Seriously, I think that tennis is one of the easiest sports to handicap and safest sport to take more risks then normal with our wagering.

wonderwall
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Re: Is Tennis worth betting on seriously ?

Postby wonderwall » Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:56 pm

Tennis Betting for a Living.
Gosh, that books £ 150, think I shall write one for £ 140

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Re: Is Tennis worth betting on seriously ?

Postby undertherobe » Wed Nov 09, 2016 10:01 pm

Back-Tested over 20,000 matches.
The problem with back-testing a system is that anyone can create any number of systems and back test them over 20,000 matches until they find a system that produces the required result

Jack Bauer
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Re: Is Tennis worth betting on seriously ?

Postby Jack Bauer » Fri Nov 11, 2016 10:00 pm

1. Never bet on women's tennis
2. Keep away from the lower ranked tournaments

These are just two of the things you have advised not to do, both are way off the mark.

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Re: Is Tennis worth betting on seriously ?

Postby Peter Portman » Sun Nov 13, 2016 12:16 pm

1. Never bet on women's tennis

Can you explain why?

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Re: Is Tennis worth betting on seriously ?

Postby TheHawkz » Sun Nov 13, 2016 1:38 pm

I would find discipline a real problem if I was to only stick to low priced mens tennis bets, unless you started with a huge bank it would take years to get to a point where it's worth while. If you manage to make it pay this way then great,but not for me,it has to stay fun or I lose interest. I find women markets offer more value to me as the mens are usually spot on whith so much interest focusing on them.c I would say be different to the regular gambler, find a specialist field and focus your study on that area.

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