How do you narrow down your selection before placing a bet?

megadan1213
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How do you narrow down your selection before placing a bet?

Postby megadan1213 » Tue May 10, 2016 4:42 pm

What are the main pointers you look for in narrowing down a large list of runners into a handful or less of potential winners.

I don't bet on horses often, only when i catch it on channel 4, but when i do i like to at least pick a horse who will be there or thereabouts; but this is a time consuming process and i find myself looking at alot of horses in detail that have little chance of winning.

Is there any reliable statistics or pointers you can look at which separate the Horses with a good chance from the Horses with not much chance.

Thanks.

steveb65
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Postby steveb65 » Tue May 10, 2016 6:13 pm

There are no rules set in stone but there are staples....the main 'bulk' of winners come into the 10/1 and below bracket so in effect the odds compiler has narrowed it down for you. Another is that just over half of all winners have placed in their last outing or placed in their last but one outing, or placed both of last two outings.I think the percentage is 59% or there abouts. (Handicaps). it would be higher in non-handicaps. Other punters choose top 5 course trainers per race and select one from these and others choose the mounts with the top 5 course jockeys...all have their merits and foibles et al, but by and large the vast majority of punters much like you dont have the time for detailed study of every runner so any of the above is popular.
Scratching a living on the great imponderable .... :hope:

Certain01
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Postby Certain01 » Tue May 10, 2016 8:35 pm

One of the advantages we have over the bookmakers is that we don't have to bet in every race....I would also avoid the big 20+ runner handicaps that seem to be on every Saturday afternoon.

I think most people don't have the time to spend hours each day sifting through the form...I spend one evening a week going through the last week of form and make notes of any horses I feel could run better next time..the racing post weekender have an analysis of most races written in clear English rather than trying to decipher the std held up hdwy 2f out etc..

Put them on a tracker and when one is due to run just analyse that race for the day...if you feel it's worth a bet then go for it...

As for how to analyse then the above post merits respect...you could also look for well handicapped horses coming back in to form...horses who ran well from a bad draw last time...the list is endless..

Good luck what ever you do :win:

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Postby Shrews » Tue May 10, 2016 8:40 pm

1. Pick races where the horses have lots of form, i.e 4yo and above on the flat.
2. Pick races run over 10f + as shorter distances tend to be influenced more by 'luck in running' and give the horse less of a chance of correcting the error/bad luck

3. Pick horses who have won or placed in the same class over the last 3 years on similar going i.e Good ground, then gd/sft or gd/fm will count
4. From those left, long list the horses where the jockey is 'doing ok' (a few winners and places over the last 14 days) and does well at the course (12% strike rate)
5. From those left, short list the horses where the trainer is 'doing ok' ( a few winners and places over the last 14 days) and does well at the course (12% strike rate)
6. Narrow it down to three runners, by using your 'gut feel' on points 3,4,5 above
7. Choose the winner by looking for a horse who is on a mark close to his last winning mark on the same or similar going, distance, course

Example race - 6.00 Bath (predicted going Firm) 10f

1. Class
Saint Helena - Won off 76 over 11f on G/fm back in 2013
Castle Talbot - Eliminated
Man Look - Eliminated

Mary Le Bow - Placed off 60 over CD on firm back in 2014
Weardiditallgorong - Won at Lingfield in 2015 over 9f on g/fm off 49, class 6
Jazri - Won at Brighton in 2015 over 10f on g/fm off 57, class 6
Invincible Wish - Eliminated
Kay Sera - Eliminated
Nouvelle Ere - Eliminated

Outlaw Torn - Placed at Newcastle in 2015 over 10f on g/fm off 60
Kristal Hart - Won over CD in 2015 on firm off 47
Hydrant - Won at Ayr over 10f in 2015 on g/fm off 61, class 5
Dovil's Duel - Won at Lingfield in 2013 over 6f on g/fm off 65, class 6
Azure Amour - Won over CD in 2015 on firm off 53, class 6
McDelta - Won at Ffos Las over 8f in 2013 on g/fm off 61, class 6
Let Me In - Eliminated

2. Jockey

Saint Helena - John Fahy - Eliminated (Bath %)
Mary Le Bow - Kieran Shoemark
Weardiditallgorong - Cathy Gannon
Jazri - Luke Morris -
Outlaw Torn - JF Egan - Eliminated (Bath %)
Kristal Hart - Liam Keniry - Eliminated (Bath %)

Hydrant - Martin Harley
Dovil's Duel - Eoin Walsh - good Bath form, only a place in last 14, on balance worth keeping in
Azure Amour - George Wood - in form, value for his 7lb claim, never raced at Bath, on balance worth keeping in
McDelta - Timmy Murphy

3. Trainer

Mary Le Bow - Victor Dartnall - 1 from 6 last 14 days, only 1 run at Bath, on balance Eliminate
Weardiditallgorong - Des Donovan - only 1 run in last 14, only 2 runs here, on balance Eliminate

Jazri - Milton Bradley - Eliminate on Bath %
Hydrant - Richard Guest - multiple wins and places in last 14, just 3 runs here, on balance worth keeping in
Dovil's Duel - Tony Newcombe - good course win %, 1 place from 3 runners last 14 days, on balance worth keeping in
Azure Amour - Rod Millman - good course win %, just 1 place from 16 runners in last 14 days, but a few not far away, on balance worth keeping in
McDelta - Geoffrey Deacon - 0/9 at course, no places last 14 Eliminated

Leaves:

Hydrant - a mark of 58 is 3lb lower than his win at Ayr in April 2015 which was in a higher class. Also 2lb lower than when a 5l 6th last time out on g/fm over 10f. Seems to do best in the Spring months.

Dovils Duel - a mark of 58 is 7lb lower than his win at Lingfield in 2013 on gd/fm. That was only over 6f, but has won at Windsor on soft over 10f in a class 5 claimer in October last year.

Azure Amour - a mark of 57 is 4lb higher than his 3/4l win over CD in August last year

Prediction

1. Hydrant
2. Dovil's Duel
3. Azure Amour

Of course, there is a chance I've cocked some of the above info up! But that can easily happen when cutting down a big field.

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Postby captainlard » Tue May 10, 2016 11:03 pm

One of the advantages we have over the bookmakers is that we don't have to bet in every race....I would also avoid the big 20+ runner handicaps that seem to be on every Saturday afternoon.

I think most people don't have the time to spend hours each day sifting through the form...I spend one evening a week going through the last week of form and make notes of any horses I feel could run better next time..the racing post weekender have an analysis of most races written in clear English rather than trying to decipher the std held up hdwy 2f out etc..

Put them on a tracker and when one is due to run just analyse that race for the day...if you feel it's worth a bet then go for it...

As for how to analyse then the above post merits respect...you could also look for well handicapped horses coming back in to form...horses who ran well from a bad draw last time...the list is endless..

Good luck what ever you do :win:
Your post caught my eye because after I read a book called 'Well Handicapped Horses' by John Gubby I started getting the Weekender and going through the resulkts every week looking for different things, at one point I really thought I was on to something but it was a lot of work and want to go back to it but need to simplify the approach.

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Postby UnderdogsLover » Wed May 11, 2016 5:21 am

Yes nice post..
How do you narrow down your selection before placing a bet?
But my case know, i only just bet on Tv races now :yes:

As its too costly to bet everyday etc..

1: Avoid maidens in fields- especially if some won in field!!
2: Avoid.. Irish races: two me am unlucky with them,
maybe to type of grade races they have and going confusing to
such as yielding etc..
3:Avoid races: got too many of our favourite horses you like,
Example like the Gold Cup- always best to watch.
4: Yes this one to i agree on..
captainlard
I would also avoid the big 20+ runner handicaps that seem to be on every Saturday afternoon.
That will know include Grand National + ( i do not like now the GN time slot ).
and final one..
Just go with the flow- what ever mood you on that day... :cool:

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Postby Mogweister » Wed May 11, 2016 8:50 pm

This post really interested me, there\'s so many variables it can scramble your head. Maybe sticking to certain types of races and distances, such as all races over a mile on the flat. Or if you decide you want to try sprints. Just stick to them till you get the hang of it.
Some tracks have draw biases that are quite prominent, such as Chester, Bath up to a mile. Where low drawn horses have an advantage. You can rule out a number of horses straight away, although occasionally a good course jockey can throw all of the above out of the window,if riding a really good horse, and get a result. That\'s the pitfalls of betting, nothing\'s set in stone. Lol. Alot of winning horses I\'ve discovered have actually beaten the one I bet on, so I\'ve noted it down for next time. Would also stay away from maiden races, as they are difficult to predict.
Just one more light hearted piece of advice, try not to change your mind at the last minute. Lost out on many a winner by being swayed by a change of heart at the last minute.
Good luck, hopefully this has helped...

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Postby captainlard » Thu May 12, 2016 8:08 am

Nice work Shrews on the Bath race!

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Postby UnderdogsLover » Thu May 12, 2016 11:48 am

:win: Yes agree with Mogweister, for got bout that one.
Just one more light hearted piece of advice, try not to change your mind at the last minute. Lost out on many a winner by being swayed by a change of heart at the last minute.
One of my top ones i list follow with..
If too many of your favourite horses running in same race,
just stick to your first choice on list..

My favourite saying is- never change your mind go with it :yes:
like i said about go with the flow bit..

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Postby deswalker » Thu May 12, 2016 12:03 pm

Is there any reliable statistics or pointers you can look at which separate the Horses with a good chance from the Horses with not much chance.
When you find the answer to this one, feel free to send it through to me! :P
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Certain01
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Postby Certain01 » Thu May 12, 2016 12:55 pm

One of the advantages we have over the bookmakers is that we don't have to bet in every race....I would also avoid the big 20+ runner handicaps that seem to be on every Saturday afternoon.

I think most people don't have the time to spend hours each day sifting through the form...I spend one evening a week going through the last week of form and make notes of any horses I feel could run better next time..the racing post weekender have an analysis of most races written in clear English rather than trying to decipher the std held up hdwy 2f out etc..

Put them on a tracker and when one is due to run just analyse that race for the day...if you feel it's worth a bet then go for it...

As for how to analyse then the above post merits respect...you could also look for well handicapped horses coming back in to form...horses who ran well from a bad draw last time...the list is endless..

Good luck what ever you do :win:
Your post caught my eye because after I read a book called 'Well Handicapped Horses' by John Gubby I started getting the Weekender and going through the resulkts every week looking for different things, at one point I really thought I was on to something but it was a lot of work and want to go back to it but need to simplify the approach.
It is hard work captain so I find ways of cutting it down...

I leave all class 5 and 6 races which reduces it by a lot..

Maybe we could start a thread up with horses noted to run well in the future..I know there is one already but this would be from the weekender formbook..

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Postby marcelomf » Thu May 12, 2016 2:01 pm

A friend of mine use the "Off At 1:22 Start Good". I find this in some results of races. Anyone know what that means?

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