Horse Racing Selections With Reasoning - Saturday 16th

nors
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Horse Racing Selections With Reasoning - Saturday 16th

Postby nors » Fri Feb 15, 2013 6:36 pm

Your reasoned forum horse racing selections for Saturday.

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craigturner91
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Postby craigturner91 » Sat Feb 16, 2013 12:39 am

4.00 lingfield mia's boy im finding it hard to look past mia's boy i backed it last time out and the ride george baker gave it was awful always in rear if he gets this horse prominent it has every chance of winning a big race only beaten 1/2 a length to aquilonius and in all fairness should of won the race its last 6 starts has been held up or in the last pair everytime i just feel if this horse is prominent it has every chance of winning this big class 2 handicap tomorrow good luck if your on guys

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Postby jmrdfc » Sat Feb 16, 2013 11:20 am

2.05 Ascot - Rocky Creek - first run when 2nd to Harry Topper now looks good form and has won well the last twice beating a decent henderson runner who has since won a handicap fairly well. Think this one is a deservedly short price fav.

2.40 Ascot - The Rainbow Hunter - course and distance winner in race where a couple of runners have won since. Willing to forgive bad run on poor ground at Chepstow and should go well here.

3.15 Ascot - The Bear Trap - improving horse and AP getting down to close to lowest riding weight which possibly looks a tip in itself.

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Postby The rabbit » Sat Feb 16, 2013 11:45 am

4:00 Lingfield - Rakaan 12/1

This looks quite open and I am going for Rakaan who I backed in his latest race when he finished 6th after experiencing little luck in running. This horse had previously come 2nd so has shown some recent good form and his victory over today's distance at Wolverhampton in November in a class 3 handicap gives him a decent chance in this race in my opinion as he had two of today's opponents ( Alfred Hutchinson and Mias Boy ) behind him and again has the beating of them on today's weights. Rakaan is well drawn in stall 2 and will probably need luck in running but looks worth e/way interest at the odds on offer.

4:35 Lingfield - Harry Buckle 3/1

The improving Harry Buckle looks to have a good chance of winning this. He recently won three consecutive races including one over today's course and distance before stepping up in class to finish 3rd in a decent class 3 handicap at Lingfield on the 2nd of this month. He was rated 83 on that day and remains on that mark for this race which is weaker ( class 4 ) and I think that Harry Buckle can continue his improvement and achieve another success with Luke Morris riding.

4:40 Haydock - Florafen 7/1

Florafern was disappointing in her latest race when a well beaten 5th at Sandown in early december 2012 but has been given a rest since then and it is noticeable that this horse won in October last year after a 6 month absence from racing so she is capable of running well fresh and her trainer Oliver Sherwood is in good form with 2 wins and 3 places from his latest 6 runners. Florafern's best form was at Ascot in November when only beaten one length by Tweedledrum who went on to win a class 2 handicap and then came 2nd in a decent race so if Florafern can reproduce the form of that Ascot run then she will have a very good chance of at least being placed today.

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Postby horsetaylor » Sat Feb 16, 2013 1:35 pm

I apologise for the late addition of these selections but i will post the first and then update the rest.

2.05 ASCOT - REAL MILAN (NB)
Understandably for the prize money on offer the reynoldstown novice chase has had a good turn out this season, unusually better than last seasons turn out. While the quantity is about the same as usual the quality on offer is different. We have a serious RSA candidate racing here in Rocky Creek. In my opinion however, although some my disagree, before his last outing i did think genuine RSA contender, and before his last run, i did put the horse up as that and how confident i was about the win. However, he looked to me like an out and out stayer on the last occasion and perhaps the right route to go was the 4m route, which may leave the Nicholls runner in the RSA being Sire Collonges should that happen. However, i do think that weakness will be shown today against a horse who has plenty of value and a bit more pace. You can tell with the way Real Milan has been campaigned that he was highly thought of even as a youngster. His novice hurdling form is very decent before somewhat flopping in heavy conditions at Haydock. Two runs over fences however have been very impressive especially how he jumps a fence, he is very slick and accurate. He receives weight off the favourite today and has any amount of improvement left in him after just two runs, i think he is a pacy three miler and with conditions to suit, can justify 13/2 as being value this afternoon.

2.20 HAYDOCK - ACROSS THE BAY (NAP)
With Big Bucks being out of the World Hurdle it has to be one of the most open antepost contests we have seen in the last few years, bar last seasons supreme novices hurdle. Im sure on the day was 11/2 the field. However, this grade two is likely to be the indicator as to a huge shift in the world hurdle market. It is interesting here to see that Donald McCain has dropped Across the Bay back over hurdles here. I am in agreement with his reasoning too. The horse ran an excellent race at Aintree over 3m when Big Bucks was seen at his imperious best when just cantering to victory, but to still manage third in a competitive event especially after making the running, suggests to me that the horse has plenty of talent. The horse seems to have been in great form of late over fences and it would not be a surprise to see it transformed over hurdles today. Likely to have competition for the lead i think that Jason Maguire will just opt to sit handy enough, chase the pace and then attack when necessary. The horse is not afraid of a battle neither and can stick his head down when required. Value at 9/1.

Ive also had a massive word for BRACKLOON HIGH today in the 2.40 Ascot. Enjoy today.

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Postby Marshy » Sat Feb 16, 2013 2:36 pm

"Am going to tip up webbow here, unlucky in running lto and is more than capable of winning this race, an important factor here aswell is the fact that Adam Kirby rides, Atlantic crossing is in the race who is a quality horse in its self, now Atlantis crossing who is above my choice in the betting is usually ridden by Kirby. He would have had the choice to ride AC again but chooses webbow.could be a tip in itself. "

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