Betfair Reduction Factor

davidg3907
Stallion
Tips
Posts: 6088
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2009 11:00 pm
Location: Oadby , Leicestershire

Betfair Reduction Factor

Postby davidg3907 » Sun Feb 12, 2012 4:08 pm

I laid Bog Warrior on Betfair this morning as I thought it may struggle after yesterday's race.

I then noticed that the book over round was favourable so started to lay other horses having checked their RF ( reduction factor ) rules.

Fortunately , I had not got round to laying Last Instalment when the market suddenly suspended and Bog Warrior was taken out. Never mind , I thought , I will be protected by Betfair's RF.

HOW WRONG I WAS !!!

Betfair decided that they would invent a RF for Bog Warrior , nothing to do with it's current price - something like Ladbrokes saying let's deduct 50p in the £1 because a 6/1 chance was withdrawn. At least , if they are going to do this , it MUST be mentioned on the page for that market.

I spoke to Betfair Customer Services ( I would have had more satisfaction talking to a chair as I would not then have anticipated a sensible answer ) who told me the RFs are SET a couple of days in advance and went on to explain the RFs for tomorrow's card at Wolverhampton. I asked to speak to any intelligent life at Betfair and eventually a manager rang back to say that the CS representative was incorrect to say all RFs were set a couple of days in advance - but went on to say that the RF for Bog Warrior was sent at 20.8% for a horse trading around 2.8 because it may not run and the price may not be a true reflection of the horses chance.

Does this mean that some of the donkeys that are made favourites at Southwell and the like carry a mystery RF because someone at Betfair thinks the price is wrong ?

I was left in a position where after the " FAIR " RF as advertised on the Betfair site , in effect I had backed Last Instalment at around 1.60.

Interestingly , if Bog Warrior had been withdrawn a couple of minutes later when I would have had time to lay the fav as well , I would have been in the position of an all red book to not insignificant sums because the RF would have left the following.

1. Lay 2.44 after RF 1.93 BSP 1.79
2. Lay 4.85 after RF 3.85 BSP 3.90
3. Lay 13.5 after RF 10.69 BSP 9.40
4. Lay 19.0 after RF 15.05 BSP 11.50

If anyone would like to explain how this ' invented ' RF if fair , please try.

With a lot of trading and a little bit of fortune , I managed to get a fairly sensible position and won a small amount with no real liability.

So remember , the Betfair RF is sometimes a figment of their imagination and NOT representative of the price at time of withdrawal.

The manager said that in this case it was because some people may have been aware that the horse would be withdrawn and the price it was trading at was therefore a false one. Surely , if that is the case , let things stand ( i.e. use true RF ) because the other horses WOULD by the same token , be around their correct price.

That is nothing short of SCANDALOUS.

After the Voler affair at Christmas , it appears Betfair can simply invent their own rules as they go along - even bookmakers can't do that.

Roll on the time when there is more liquidity at BetDaq !

EyeNoAgain
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1797
Joined: Thu Jun 03, 2010 11:00 pm

betfair

Postby EyeNoAgain » Mon Feb 13, 2012 10:38 am

In all fairness, davidg3907, the information was available had you checked the horse by clicking the small symbol to the left of the horse's name. This is what I did before backing the two Willie Mullins horses.
It is true to state that Betfair were very slow to react to the fact that Bogside was not going to run. I spotted that the odds on my two were much higher than with the bookies and checked the reduction factor before betting.
Not sure that I should be pointing this out to you as your interests and mine are about as far apart as it is possible to be!!!

I have great reservations about Betfair but, in this instance, I believe the criticism is unjustified.

davidg3907
Stallion
Tips
Posts: 6088
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2009 11:00 pm
Location: Oadby , Leicestershire

Postby davidg3907 » Mon Feb 13, 2012 1:37 pm

Eyenoagain ,

[/quote]Not sure that I should be pointing this out to you as your interests and mine are about as far apart as it is possible to be!!![/quote]

This is a site supposedly to help those less savvy than others. I wished to point out how the less informed were being disadvantaged - sorry if that makes us poles apart.

I have seen no explanation as to why all the press knew Bog Warrior wasn't going to run , all bookies knew it wasn't going to run , yet the trainer waited until midday before withdrawing it. That is the root of the problem.

Yes I was given a similar explanation to yours by a manager at Betfair - but in a slightly different way.

You need to check the current RF for ALL runners in the race when you want to place a bet in case one may be a non runner. For anyone just logging in to the Timeform racecard or just going directly to Betfair , they would have no cause to suspect a non runner , particularly had they not seen the previous days racing. What happens if another horse may be withdrawn and Betfair have put an unrealistic RF on it ?
I had checked the RF for Bog Warrior and saw it was 20.8% - however I had never heard of fixed RFs before and assumed it would change with the market. NOTHING on Betfair said this RF was set in stone - so the only way to check would be to keep revisiting the market !

Having checked them , one then needs to recheck them all later to see whether the RF has changed. If it has changed , then it is not a fixed RF.

If it has NOT changed , it means that it MAY or MAY NOT be a fixed RF. Remember several hours before a race the market is hardly volatile and the fact that the RF has not changed may simply reflect the fact that the price has not changed.

By the time one has done all this , the price that you initially wanted to use may well have changed.

Now this may be manageable in a field of 5 runners , but imagine how long this operation would take for a 16 runner handicap !

If Betfair had any glimmer of an idea about customer service , the very least they could have done would be to put a note on the market - rather than ignore the situation for 4 hours or more.

Even when the non runner was confirmed , which was incidentally before I placed a bet , no action was taken for a long while to remove the horse from the market. A conservative estimate of 10 minutes would not be far out.

From Betfair's perspective , if everyone followed the steps mentioned and found out they would be laying at significantly over the odds , there would be no offers in the lay market - and NONE of their customers could get a bet matched.

Although I did not know WHAT the problem was , I knew there was one so I was doing this with my eyes open , but others were obviously simply logging on and oblivious to the fact that they would ultimately be taking an unfavourable price. Whilst some were happy to do that , backers were having a field day and as long as there was turnover , why should Betfair care ? Punters that placed bets overnight or early morning were left with no escape.

I don't know what Betfair's turnover on the race was at the time they suspended , but ALL layers had been disadvantaged - whether voluntarily or not.

My point is that many ' ordinary ' punters would not have been aware of the great discrepancy between the odds at which they were laying and the odds at which they should be laying. How many on here recently said they could not work out over-rounds etc. Surely it is Betfair's duty to keep punters aware of the situation.

It would not have been a major task for a 5yo with a calculator to work out what would have been a realistic RF , so a team of experts should have been able to come up with something more equitable.


Betfair need to back horses in their own markets to cover multiples they have laid. Given the choice as to whether to favour backers or layers , it is not difficult to see which way the pendulum swings.

P.S. Eyenoagain , if you were aware of the situation , why did you not back all 4 remaining runners and guarantee a profit whatever won. I'm sure several traders would have relished such an opportunity. I had started out laying Bog Warrior so could not change to ' backing ' mode.

EyeNoAgain
Triple Crown Winner
Tips
Posts: 1797
Joined: Thu Jun 03, 2010 11:00 pm

betfair

Postby EyeNoAgain » Wed Feb 15, 2012 12:02 pm

Not sure that I should be pointing this out to you as your interests and mine are about as far apart as it is possible to be!!!
davidg3907. My comment was made because I only (well, almost only) back horses to win whereas it seems to me that you are mainly a layer. Hence, it is not in my best interests to help you. I trust that you appreciate this.

However. I thought it fair to bring the availability of the RF info to your attention, especially as I had used it.
P.S. Eyenoagain , if you were aware of the situation , why did you not back all 4 remaining runners and guarantee a profit whatever won. I'm sure several traders would have relished such an opportunity.
I only back horses that I think have a good chance of winning (or rather, their odds against winning look favourable) so I would not have an interest in all horses in a race. In any case your suggestion would be beyond my understanding! :lol:

You make a very sound case but I still would say that the RF was available. Yes, Betfair were certainly remiss with the delay over the withdrawal and I think that you are probably being kind to them when saying it was 10 minutes. I certainly took a lot of time checking the odds against those being offered by the bookies as I was suspicious and thought that possibly I was making a mistake in an unusual situation..

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot]