Just where will Annie Power end up?

Where will Annie Power go?

Poll ended at Sun Mar 30, 2014 3:57 pm

Champion Hurdle
3
13%
World Hurdle
11
46%
Mare's Hurdle
4
17%
Straight to Aintree
5
21%
Elsewhere (please comment)
1
4%
 
Total votes: 24
NiallT92
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Just where will Annie Power end up?

Postby NiallT92 » Wed Jan 29, 2014 3:57 pm

With all of the talk about just where Willie Mullins' talented mare will end up at the festival I thought it would be worth starting a separate thread to focus on this topic. Annie Power's final destination has been a hot topic on here but the discussion has been spread across a number of different threads to date and there are a wide range of views and opinions on her most likely/best target so it may be useful to have a single thread to allow for a joint discussion.

Currently, Annie Power holds entries in three races at the festival. These are The Champion Hurdle, the Mare's Hurdle (sponsored by OLBG) and the World Hurdle. She's best priced for the CH @ 8/1 (currently some 10s available on Betfair exchange), WH @ 7/2 and the MH @ 6/1 (with a bit of 13/2 on Betfair Exchange). Others, including myself, have made note of her price in the special "To Win Any Race at the Cheltenham Festival" market some bookies are offering where Annie Power is currently 2/1 with Paddy Power, 11/4 with William Hill and 3/1 with Racebets.

Popular opinion seems to be that she will end up in the World Hurdle due to what some view as a poor performance by Big Buck's in the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham recently and that Mullins' would be unlikely to risk the stellar reputation of Hurricane Fly by running her in the CH or Quevega's by running her in the MH. But should either of those horses not run in those races, due to injury for instance, that Annie Power would be entered into the "open" race race.

It is worth noting that Quevega also holds an entry in the WH and could conceivably be sent there by Willie to play against the boys where she would claim a valuable 7lb sex allowance (as would Annie Power). Arguably, Quevega would have a real chance at winning the WH should she run there instead of the MH. We know that Quevega gets three miles (WH distance) whereas Annie Power's longest trip yet is 2m4.5f which is moreso in line with the MH distance of 2m4f. If Quevega was to run in the WH and Annie Power in the MH it's hard to see Annie Power being beaten as she has already fended off much of the opposition she would face in the MH already.

I've also heard it said by some that she could skip Cheltenham altogether this year and go straight to Aintree instead and I'd be very interested to hear the reasoning of those who believe this and I'm sure everyone else would too.

Any reasoning, opinions and/or information people may have about Annie Power at Cheltenham would be greatly appreciated, so what do you think guys? I've also put up a poll to help us figure what everyone's opinion is and your votes are appreciated.

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Postby man o bong » Wed Jan 29, 2014 4:07 pm

Now I wonder if anyone will vote Mares?

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Postby deswalker » Wed Jan 29, 2014 4:21 pm

Annie Power is an enigma to me. I hear all the chatter about Ruby saying that she is a machine, how much she is liked at home, etc, yet I haven't really seen anything that makes me think that she is as good as is suggested.

She has great tactical speed, and she used this to good effect when beating the perennially one paced Zarkandar twice this season (in the meantime going from an interesting outsider to one of the favourites for the above races). Then she turned up at Doncaster against a fair field with probably one serious rival, and that one serious rival promptly fell 2 out when the race started getting serious.

She may well be all that and more, but for the forseeable future she will fall in to the "overated" bracket for me.

I think they would be mad to step her up to 3m if I'm honest. Her wins at 2m 4f have been visually striking, but have been ended very swiftly by her turn of foot rather than her stamina.

I think she would be outclassed in the Champion Hurdle this year. There are 5 very serious competitors in that, whose form is far superior to hers.

I don't think she will be put up against Quevega if that rival is fit, she would be going for an unprecedented 6th win in the OLBG Mares Hurdle and Mullins just wouldn't stand for chucking something in that could jeapordise that.

So, in balance I'd say that she will miss Cheltenham... and be moved to Dessie Hughes in the Summer!

:P
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Postby man o bong » Wed Jan 29, 2014 4:32 pm

On that basis then Des would you agree that she may well be a bet for the Mares?

I'm not going to repeat it here,I am starting to sound like a broken record and the amount of egg building up to land in my face is sufficiently big now, but I have just ion the last hour posted an article in the blogs section as to why I have backed her for the Mares race

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Postby Scratville » Wed Jan 29, 2014 4:37 pm

Was lucky enough to be at Donny on Saturday thanks to OLBG and afterwards the owner of Annie Power said the only way she would run in the Mares race was if Quevega didn't. He wouldn't be drawn on where so would run but he kept saying "she's a proper stayer". If we can take what he said at face value I would suggest the World Hurdle is the most likely target and with the Big Bucks/Hurricane Fly performances at the weekend I think that would be the best option.
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Postby deswalker » Wed Jan 29, 2014 4:40 pm

Hows she going to handle a big, high class field? Who knows?

Yes, I see where you are coming from there MOB. Have you got NRNB?

:?

What price would she be on the day for the OLBG as things stand? 5/2 2nd fav?

What price would she be if Quevega didn't go? 4/6f?

So, I suppose on the basis of the above its a value bet?

:?
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Postby man o bong » Wed Jan 29, 2014 4:44 pm

I've done half stake at 6/1 with Paddy normal ante post rules, and half with BetVictor, no run free bet

If Quevega isnt ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN to win the Mares again,I mean if there is the slightest doubt,they wont run her,theres no point in risking a perfect record in the history books, 5 and a place at best, will not look as good as unbeaten 5 in the record books,

If Annie turned up in the Mares without Quevega i reckon she would be 1/3 at best

So on the basis of the no run free bet with BetVictor, i have only risked half the full stake with a view to the fact I can reinvest the stake over the following three days where I wish should she not run in the race.

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Postby deswalker » Wed Jan 29, 2014 4:51 pm

I'd be all over opposing her at 1/3f... but you are probably right... I have yet to get a concept for the scale of hysteria which follows her!

:P
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Postby Brownie3 » Thu Jan 30, 2014 9:57 am

Surely it has to be the World Hurdle.

Would Ruby get off The Fly, defending champion, and 19 Grade 1 winner to ride Annie Power?

Would Ruby get off Quevega, and would Willie himself scupper a place in history were she to beat Golden Millers five wins?

Boston Bob flopped last Saturday, Big Bucks was unconvincing, Willie doesn't have a top class 3 miler, fits the bill for Annie to step up to the plate.

Now, if there were to be injuries, then AP could be redirected there, but fingers crossed they all stay safe, its the Thursday over 3 miles for me!

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Postby UnderdogsLover » Thu Jan 30, 2014 12:07 pm

Like to see Annie go for the Champion Hurdle. :yes:
So to take on the big horses, if does nt go there.

But thinking Annie will side step Cheltenham go to Aintree,
and come back stronger for next year..

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Postby The Shark » Thu Jan 30, 2014 12:50 pm

In my opinion the only way Annie Power will run in the OLBG is if Quevega doesnt.

Even then it isnt a certainty as they may fancy the World or if the Fly isnt fit she may be chosen for that.

I'm pretty sure that Annie wont take on either Quevega or Fly if they are well.

The Riccis have loads of great festival chances this year with Vautour in the Supreme (7/1), Champagne Fever in the Arkle (4/1), Faugheen in the Neptune (7/2) and more than 10 other entries. So even if it was a choice of all three races without any other Mullins runners to consider I'm not sure the "easiest option for a festival winner" of the OLBG would be chosen. Maybe with an other owner with less chances of a festival winner but horses like Annie Power dont come along often so one of the championship races might be chosen.

If you are backing Annie Power at 6/1 on the hope/punt that Quevega doesnt run and Fly does AND the world isnt chosen then wouldnt laying Quevega around EVS for the OLBG be a better bet?

On the assumption that all horses are fit and well then the only festival race I can see Annie Power running in is the World. Even then, if its real soft/heavy there is a chance the Riccis other entry in that race Zaidpour may run instead.

Which may leave Annie Power to miss the festival, perhaps going to Aintree or perhaps the even easier option of the only G1 race in UK/Ire for mares which is at the Punchestown festival at the end of April. She is only 6 so you wouldnt want to run her too much more this season.

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Postby punting4profit » Thu Jan 30, 2014 1:00 pm

I don't know it is the answer and won't be getting involved with her until I do.

What I will say is that at this stage, based on all known form and probable odds, there is a possibility that I may back her to win the World Hurdle should she be declared as I honestly think she has displayed the best form on offer most recently. Will of course be subject to odds.

In the Champion Hurdle, as things stand, she has it to prove vs HF, MTOY and TNO at the moment.

Thinking about it - I do think the World Hurdle is most likely given that Un De S (same stable), may also be fired at the Champion Hurdle if beating Melodic Rendezvoud at the weekend....

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