Vuelta

willieboy
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Vuelta

Postby willieboy » Mon Aug 12, 2013 5:42 pm

Starting on my bets for the Spanish race.....Carlos Betancur...Each Way at 20/1.
Super young climber and will be one of the top cyclists in the next couple of years.
Question marks surround Nibali at the moment...seems to have not trained properly so far....problems with Sanchez`s team...Rodriguez and Valverde had a hard Tour de France.
This looks a decent Each Way chance

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Postby NafVertone » Fri Aug 16, 2013 5:45 pm

The last grand tour of the season gets underway tomorrow and it looks the most climber orientated tour that I can remember with something like 11 mountain top finishes.This is definitely a tour for the specialist climbers.The three riders at the head of the market all have question marks against them and offer very little value over a 3 week tour and there is plenty of value to be had on riders at bigger odds in this.Vincenzo Nibali is favourite for this but with the world championships being held in Italy this year will he be going all out to win this or will he be saving himself and arriving at the world championships in peak condition.Second and third favourites Rodriguez and Valverde arrive here after a very tough TDF that is sure to have an effect on their performance in this.I will be backing 4 riders in all in this and all e/w.

1.Sammy Sanchez.He suffered with injury at the start of the season but has now fully recovered.At 35 years of age he is coming to the end of his career but he still remains a force in cycling.He will be looking for a good show in this and bypassed the TDF this year to come here with a good chance of winning.Euskatel could really do with a good showing in this as the team desperately need new sponsors as Euskatel are ending their sponsorship at the end of this season.Best Priced at 16/1 with BetVictor.

2.Carlos Betancur Colombia seem to be producing the new next generation of top cyclists with a really good crop of young riders coming through.He came to prominence this year with a 5th place finish in the Giro and won the best young rider.He aims to emulate his countryman Nairo Quintana and try and land a podium finish on one of the grand tours.Best priced 18/1 with BetVictor.

3.Domenizo Pozzovivo What lets down Pozzovivo is his time trialing ability but with this being a tour for the specialist climbers there should be far less emphasis on time trialing.He is also a teammate of Betancur and AG2R have said that there is no true team leader starting out and they will decide who looks the stronger rider as the tour progresses.I think he could possibly be the most overpriced rider in the Vuelta.Best priced at 66/1 with Stan James & William Hill.

4.Jelle Vanendert The last rider I have backed could be a dark horse in this.He is a good climber but possibly not in the same bracket as the the other three riders I have backed and this has possibly been his number one target for the season.He held the KOM jersey for 5 stages in the 2011 TDF and finished 3rd overall behind overall winner Sammy Sanchez.If he can recapture some of that form he has a small chance of making the podium.Best priced @ 400/1 with bet365
Last edited by NafVertone on Mon Aug 19, 2013 10:53 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby willieboy » Fri Aug 16, 2013 6:40 pm

Starts on the 24th.....not tomorrow. I now have decided on my 2nd bet....Kreuziger at 33/1. Very good climber.
This seems to be rather big considering how well he went at the Tour....and he says he feels good and not tired ... remember, he was helping Contador as much as possible.
Saxo has some top riders also to help out his cause...but not forgetting they could end up being the team leader if Kreuziger blows up.
Anyway...at those odds...worth a bet.

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Postby NafVertone » Fri Aug 16, 2013 7:30 pm

I don't know why I thought it started tomorrow.I blame todays hangover. :oops: It's actually a really good field for this years Vuelta.

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Postby willieboy » Tue Aug 20, 2013 11:11 am

Looking at the team competition.....I have decided on Astana at 13/4.
Seem to have loaded their team with very good climbers.
This is always a difficult catergory...esp with the many climbs lined up for this year and the Tour tiredness effect.
Now to try and find the KOM and points winner!!

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Postby KanKeano » Tue Aug 20, 2013 7:10 pm

I'll post up my fancies later on this week. Does look at good race again this year & straight into mountains from day 2.
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Postby willieboy » Wed Aug 21, 2013 10:52 am

Have decided to take a punt on Scarponi for K O M....not good enough for GC but is a good climber and may decide to go for this..40/1..wants to get in the team for the Worlds so might feel he needs to show himself in good form. While I`m doing this Each Way...I`m going to go for the straight win with Nibali...at 12/1 this is a good bet. If he`s anywhere near his best...he will be competitive on the climbs. Much better bet than outright at around 9/4.
This is my overall take on this years Vuelta...can`t have Rodriguez or Valverde...riders do not do well usually after being in the T de F...same applies to Mollema and Ten Dam. Basso..best days behind him and maybe the same for Sanchez (and he`s knocking on a bit).
So we`re left with Betancur/Henao/Uran. Have already done Betancur.and although Henao has been announced as leader of team Sky...I believe Uran is the better rider...judging by past results...so I`m going to take him at 25/1 as my final GC bet.
Points classification is proving difficult to decide!

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Postby phil00 » Thu Aug 22, 2013 6:44 am

Value lies in Arroyo at 80/1 2nd in Burgos to QUintana, from Spains 3rd team soon to become the 2nd team in the country. Mentioned alot on the cyclingnews forum and the blogs.

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Postby willieboy » Fri Aug 23, 2013 2:15 pm

My final bet is going to be D Martin for a top ten placing at7/2. He was going well at the Tour (I think placed about 7th) when he was unwell during the last week and then dropped away. He has been given the leadership of Garmin so they must think he can do well.
He owes me one after betting on him for top ten in the Tour!

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Postby willieboy » Fri Aug 23, 2013 2:36 pm

UPDATE......take note.....sadly my bet on Betancur could be up the creek now as news of Betancur not being well has just filtered through and he hasn`t been able to train properly recently and ALSO...my bet on Kreuziger might be going the same way as he has just stated he is not going for the GC but maybe a stage win and get in top form for the Worlds.
LESSON LEARNT......do not place bets too early...wait for last minute news.
(may have to have a bet on Majka as looks like he may well be team leader now for Saxo)

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Postby bigjeff » Fri Aug 23, 2013 2:36 pm

Really hard to say as a lot of last years riders are out, including Degenkolb, who won 5 stages.
But looking at the line up, its close, you have Nibali, Rodriguez, Valverde, De Gent and the Sammy, all are great climbers and tactical technicians , so with this is mind my bet's will be for stage winners and not overall winner..

So the first stage is a team TT and with all the focus on Team Garmin and Omega , my focus is on the new kids on the block Blekin, used to be Rabobank, who have made some surprising challenges this year, most notably in the recent Eneco tour.They seem to have the spirit of togetherness and notability and in the recent TDF, there main climber Laurens Ten Dam, had some great climbs, not the best climber, but still he remained in the top ten GC for a bit.

So my bet will be Belkin causing an upset in the time trial @25/1...

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Postby willieboy » Sat Aug 24, 2013 11:14 am

Last minute decision on Points jersey....have decided to go for Rodriguez...the short sharp climbs are right up his street and he is shortening in the betting...have taken 9/4.
Whether he is up to the GC I`m not convinced but he could rack up enough points on the early hills to take this....and if he is holding his form for the GC..he is pretty much sure to win this.

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