Premier League PFA Player of the Year

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Premier League PFA Player of the Year

Postby monkeytennis » Tue Dec 11, 2012 4:34 pm

I think there could be a bit of value in the award at this time of year with no outstanding candidate.

Recent winners:

11/12 Robin Van Persie
10/11 Gareth Bale
09/10 Wayne Rooney
08/09 Ryan Giggs
07/08 Cristiano Ronaldo
06/07 Cristiano Ronaldo

So it's likely to be an attacking player who takes plenty of headlines. Van Persie is the current favourite (as short as 9/4, as big as 4/1 with BetVictor) but it would be a relatively poor year (possible) if he was to retain it.

So who else?

Gareth Bale is next best at 8/1 and his recent form has improved but he's spent at least a quarter of the season not playing brilliantly and there are no guarantees for the rest of the season, especially if he's rushed back from his current hamstring injury.

It is the next two players in the betting who really grab my attention, Luis Suarez at 9/1 and Juan Mata at 12/1. Both have been in excellent form so far and both play in prominent enough positions to attract plenty of attention in the second half of the season. Some might say that Suarez is too disliked to win the award but Ronaldo won it twice and he was hardly Mother Teresa. If it was been handed out now it would be between these two in my opinion and both have every chance of winning the award at nice odds.

Many will say Michu is value but only one bookie has even bothered pricing him up and as a non elite player I think hell miss out.The biggest danger to my two is Fellaini who I think will definitely make the shortlist but I think he'll just come up short, although I wouldn't mid covering him with a very small bet.

Who would win it based on the first half of the season? Who is the value in the betting?

Van Persie 4/1
Gareth Bale 8/1
Luis Suarez 9/1
Juan Mata 12/1
Michu 12/1
Marouane Fellaini 12/1
Eden Hazard 12/1
Santi Corzola 18/1
David Silva 25/1
Wayne Rooney 25/1
Olivier Giroud 200/1 :P

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Postby mercer » Tue Dec 11, 2012 4:49 pm

Early stages but for me Fellaini has been immense along with Baines. Ba has been scoring goals in a struggling side.Diame has stood head and shoulders above many but out for 12 weeks now, so well out of the running.

Has anyone won it being bought in Jan then making a impact?

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Postby monkeytennis » Tue Dec 11, 2012 5:12 pm

The award is issued mid April I believe, so before the season ends. I think you want to have put your case forward (through performances on the pitch) by the end of Feb really so early season form is very important. If you are thinking someone like Falcao might get bought by a top side and win it I'd say that's very unlikely.

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Postby mercer » Tue Dec 11, 2012 5:15 pm

Cazorla has done nothing so far apart from his first two games and should be bigger. Fellaini may get a move to a bigger side and odds would love massive then. Mata has stood out for Chelsea. Suarez has done well in my opinion but with all his antics doubt he would get many votes. Why is Defoe not priced up there. Been scoring left right and centre and will hit many more during the season.

Looks close this year but still very early days.

Rooney is very big and looks like his old self the last few matches and banging in goals now.

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Postby bigmoose » Tue Dec 11, 2012 10:34 pm

Just googled it and recent award dates have been 22-27 April. What I can't find out is when the voting forms go out to the players, I'm sure once I read a player being interviewed in local paper complaining that voting forms were knocking around in Feb so how was this reflective of the whole season, and how too many of his fellow pros discussed it amongst themselves then voted for the obvious as they rarely watched football. But I wouldn't be surprised if being on fire from November to early March is quite important, and I think this may have helped Gareth Bale win two seasons ago.

Looking at past winners I can't see anyone from outside a Top4 team apart from Ginola in 98-99 season and Bale 10-11 season. Anyone outside Top2 looks rare too, although I've not fully checked, but 15 of last 17 winners have played for either ManU, Che, Ars, Liv or Newc (when they were a Top2 team) and the other two were Ginola & Bale.
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Postby KanKeano » Tue Dec 11, 2012 11:15 pm

If Fellaini carries his form into the next 2 months then 12/1 may look big at end of the season. No-one from the top 2 has stood out as a candidate yet.
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Postby monkeytennis » Wed Dec 12, 2012 9:43 am

The voting takes place March I think to create the shortlist of 6 players, not 100% sure if there is another vote after that from the shortlist but it looks as though performances until February probably count 90% at least towards this award.

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Postby DaveTehTipst0r » Wed Dec 12, 2012 10:05 am

i think michu has to be in with a very big shout.. made a huge impact since landing from spain.. currently top scorer too!

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Postby monkeytennis » Wed Dec 12, 2012 11:08 am

Garlic - currently it's Stan James, Paddy Power, BetVictor and SportingBet. SJ and BV are best for Fellaini at 12s.

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Postby fairfranco » Wed Dec 12, 2012 11:10 am

Fellaini's form has been like this for the last year at least and he's finally starting to get fully noticed.

I backed him at 16/1 with paddys a while back. he should be much lower and has been one of the stand out performers of the season so far.

I'm not just saying that because I'm an Everton fan either! :P

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Postby KanKeano » Sat Dec 15, 2012 7:02 pm

Dear oh dear Fellaini. Unfortunately this could count against him

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Postby Liverpool1985 » Sun Dec 16, 2012 8:58 pm

I agree with Dave's shout a few post back. Michu has been the standout player this season and if he keeps this going he is definitely one to keep an eye on. Although a lot of clubs, even from Foreign League are going to show interest in the January Transfer Window.
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